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Self-driving as a case study for AGI

karpathy.github.io

171–180 of 199 posts

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#171
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is that economy does not make sense without people. Economy is a way to allocate human work and resources, and provide incentives for humans to collaborate, factoring in the available resource limits. Now if AGI make people's work redundant, and makes economy grow 100-10000x times... what does that measure mean at all? Can produce lots of stuff not needed or affordable by anybody? So we just hand out welfar…

This isn’t complicated. Economic growth means cheaper access to things people want. Imagine a list of things many people wish to happen in physical reality. We’ll have more of that. -Better healthcare -Curing most things that destroy quality of life -Curing aging and age-related death -Much better treatment for all sources of mental suffering -Far better and cheaper and reversible body modification -More free time to…

[deleted]

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#172
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is that economy does not make sense without people. Economy is a way to allocate human work and resources, and provide incentives for humans to collaborate, factoring in the available resource limits. Now if AGI make people's work redundant, and makes economy grow 100-10000x times... what does that measure mean at all? Can produce lots of stuff not needed or affordable by anybody? So we just hand out welfar…

This isn’t complicated. Economic growth means cheaper access to things people want. Imagine a list of things many people wish to happen in physical reality. We’ll have more of that. -Better healthcare -Curing most things that destroy quality of life -Curing aging and age-related death -Much better treatment for all sources of mental suffering -Far better and cheaper and reversible body modification -More free time to…

Ageing is not an illness.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#173
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Things change, people adapt. Well some of them. The rest just gets old and dies off. Which, continuing the analogy, is like watching your neighbour be slaughtered and defending the war by saying we’ll be fine because those who won’t be will eventually die. Sure, in a few generations we could be better off, but there are people living right now to think about. Those who dismiss it are the lucky ones who (think they)…

Handguns are a bigger problem in the modern world than machine guns. How does that change your analogy?

They’re a bigger problem because there are more of them and they’re easier to get. Which isn’t a metric that applies here. Analogies seldom map on every metric, they’re a tool for exemplification. In this case it’s like anyone having equal access to either a handgun or machine gun.

Even if the analogy were wrong, that wouldn’t make the point invalid. I know the point I’m making (and presumably so do you). Again, the analogy is for exemplification, it does not alter the original problem.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can already experience self driving cars by taking an Uber or a taxi, or being chauffeured if you are richer. None of that is new, the self driving aspect just promises to make those experiences perhaps more accessible (or at the very least, not less accessible than they are now). For example, I took a taxi to and from work every day when I lived in Beijing, which came to about 100 kuai/day for a 20-30 minute dri…

Yeah which I think the only remaining good application of self-driving car ( taxi ) doesn't bring that much convenient, since taxi here is already somewhat reasonably priced. I can't speak for the the US experience. Also the article touches briefly on drivers going into jobless. A lot of drivers where i'm from seems to be retiring middle-old age working in taxi. I think it's a good job fit for them and I don't know h…

Labor is becoming more expensive, even in the developed world. Eventually, people will want to do more productive things that drive a taxi for a little bit of money.

There is an argument for traffic optimization that will be possible when self driving taxis are common, but this is more of an argument also for the developing world where traffic is a much larger problem than the developed world (e.g. LA traffic is nothing compared to Beijing traffic).

I just look forward to a lifestyle in the states compared to the one I had back when I was living in China.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually if you read the blog he addresses Waymo and Tesla's strategy. He says the barriers to Tesla scaling are software and Waymo needs to scale hardware. He then implies that software will win the scaling race

Tesla "its just another software update away" pumps are the most delusional. Tesla cameras aren't even class leading in the automative industry, let alone at the cars price point. They are worse than the iPhone you handed down to your tween 5 years ago. What makes anyone think that their quality and placement will ever be adequate even with new CPUs and better software?

I think Karpathy is referring to the building of cars when he refers to scaling hardware.

I find it strange that you accuse Karpathy of delusional pumping.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#177
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn’t complicated. Economic growth means cheaper access to things people want. Imagine a list of things many people wish to happen in physical reality. We’ll have more of that. -Better healthcare -Curing most things that destroy quality of life -Curing aging and age-related death -Much better treatment for all sources of mental suffering -Far better and cheaper and reversible body modification -More free time to…

Ageing is not an illness.

Involuntary ageing is the very worst tragedy of human life.

Funny that this kind of ideological conflict will likely be a key fulcrum of the machine intelligence revolution. We will have a very loud minority that attempts to forcefully prevent all other humans from having the voluntary choice to avoid suffering.

Are you in it?

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#178
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ageing is not an illness.

Involuntary ageing is the very worst tragedy of human life. Funny that this kind of ideological conflict will likely be a key fulcrum of the machine intelligence revolution. We will have a very loud minority that attempts to forcefully prevent all other humans from having the voluntary choice to avoid suffering. Are you in it?

Wow, really good job with this satire account!

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#179
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn’t complicated. Economic growth means cheaper access to things people want. Imagine a list of things many people wish to happen in physical reality. We’ll have more of that. -Better healthcare -Curing most things that destroy quality of life -Curing aging and age-related death -Much better treatment for all sources of mental suffering -Far better and cheaper and reversible body modification -More free time to…

Ageing is not an illness.

Out of curiosity, I looked up the definition of illness. Seems to be so loosely defined that it can be either a disease or a patient's personal experience, including "lethargy, depression, loss of appetite, sleepiness, hyperalgesia, and inability to concentrate", which (possibly excluding hyperalgesia, I've not heard of that before now) are associated with aging.

Regardless of if "illness" is or is not a terminological inexactitude, it looks like ageing is a chronic progressive terminal genetic disorder. I think "cure" is an appropriate term in this case.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you have no idea how much they drive. they avoid talking about it on every interview. Ars explicitly called then out on this and they called saying this is their main profit sucking issue right now "having one overseer per car". to me that means they are, for all practical purposes, driving. no matter how much they try to spin it.

No, they have talked about it in interviews. They've repeatedly said they don't have remote drivers. They have "remote assistance" that the car can call to ask questions if it's confused. You can tell when this is happening in the car, because it plays a message like "our team is working to get you moving". It's rare, maybe once every few rides. There is no way there's one overseer per car.

they did say it on record on the ars interview. one per car. and then they spin it with "they don't drive the car, just provide input".

the cases where the car halt, the system is probably waiting for a supervisor input, so it is technically 1.2 overseer per car.

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