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Mourning Google

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Re: Mourning Google

#171

Post by ak_111 »

vanderZwan wrote: post #22

> To me this feels like a big inflection point, because around the stumbling feet of the Big Tech dinosaurs, the Web’s mammals, agile and flexible, still scurry. Tangent: I kinda hate this metaphor. It reinforces this incredibly outdated idea that dinosaurs - or any other extinct life-form - went extinct because they were an evolutionary dead end. (Also, since I do not know a single nerd who isn't into dinosaurs the…

Tangent: I thought you were going to hate the inflection point metaphor (and hence started your post with a pun about it).

The point being inflection points mathematically speaking don't usually imply a peak, rather a change in concavity (which might still be increasing).

It would be better for people to say something like "...it feels like we reached a high water mark..." to stress they worry about a certain maxima being hit.

Re: Mourning Google

#172

Post by mdgrech23 »

rezonant wrote: post #24
cousin_it wrote: post #16

I have a different theory about the cause of the decline. Google 10-15 years ago had a clear idea of how to win: hire the best programmers, give them freedom, and they'll build products that will win in every market. And, well, that hasn't happened. Long before the current talk of Google's decline, there was talk of the Google black hole, where talented people would get hired and their noteworthy output would drop to…

Your theory doesn't match the timeline. Under the engineering first strategy, Google became the juggernaut it is today, with products like Gmail, Maps, Street View and of course Search. Unfortunately, the approach doesn't work for all product categories. Product design, usability, simplicity, and sheer style were not the forte of the Google of old. As a result they saw themselves fall behind Facebook in social, faile…

It is odd. It all stems from this idea that engineers make ugly products but that's just not true. I do think some engineers are more well versed in design than others though. I will say the ones I've met who are well versed in design are prone to doing odd things when comes to stuff like storing data. Like they won't know that area well and will introduce slowness or delay which also kills the product experience. I think like anything to be successful you need a high functioning team w/ various specialties, oddly enough I'm not convinced you actually need a dedicated "product" person.

Re: Mourning Google

#173

Post by whythre »

glimshe wrote: post #160
nostrademons wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This description actually makes me feel like the metaphor is more apt. The dinosaurs went down because they were large, complex lifeforms that required a vibrant, complex ecosystem to support them. Amidst a fundamental shift to that ecosystem, large complex organisms were the first to go down. This is a general pattern - complex systems are always the first to collapse when there's a shift in the ecosystem, because t…

Large institutions have been "failing" for over a century, in most countries, similar to things in orbit being always "falling". Just go find old newspapers and you'll see similar wording. The constant criticism and renewal of our institutions is part of the system.

You aren’t wrong, but we used to teach Latin in schools. Things aren’t getting better in a lot of these arenas, they are being chipped away… and the center cannot hold forever.

Re: Mourning Google

#174

Post by moritzwarhier »

coldpie wrote: post #169
moritzwarhier wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Psychosis and psychopathic (or antisocial) traits are very different psychiatric phenomena. They are not even similar, also psychosis is often temporary. So maybe people should look for a different "smart" way of describing craziness. Or, if you want to use psychiatric terms, subclinic antisocial persobality disorder is most closely related to business success, as far as I know.

Sorry, I was (trying to) use the same term as the person I was replying to.

Should have answered to that then, sorry. Was just a quick lunch break thought.

Re: Mourning Google

#175

Post by kosolam »

Well, this is definitely TLDR. That said, I don’t mourn Google - nostalgia is for the privileged. Google is pure evil, and should be dismantled.

Re: Mourning Google

#176

Post by robin_reala »

rezonant wrote: post #72
fidotron wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Product design, usability, simplicity, and sheer style were not the forte of the Google of old.” This is completely wrong. Their style was deliberate indifference about aesthetics, but their products (maps, search and gmail in particular) were absolute masterpieces of product design when first launched. Edit to add: even Chrome itself was like this.

Search was a product designed by two engineers. Maps from 2005 was a very sleek product, but at the time there were no competitors on the web, and now Maps is so ubiquitous, and requires such an insane data investment, that we'll probably never know the ideal Maps design, because every competitor out there is still catching up. Their primary advantage was the money they threw at mapping data and the ability for them…

The primary reason for Chrome’s success was literal billions of dollars in pervasive advertising (I remember years of Chrome TV ads and billboards), ads plastered all over Google’s products saying “better in Chrome”, and product bundling into many many pieces of software a user might download (e.g. Acrobat[1]). That’s not to say that it wasn’t a technically good product, but it wasn’t so much better than the competition that it would have got to the market share it has on its own merits.

[1] https://www.labnol.org/software/chrome-with-adobe-reader/201...

Re: Mourning Google

#177

Post by sirsinsalot »

agumonkey wrote: post #135
vanderZwan wrote: post #22

> To me this feels like a big inflection point, because around the stumbling feet of the Big Tech dinosaurs, the Web’s mammals, agile and flexible, still scurry. Tangent: I kinda hate this metaphor. It reinforces this incredibly outdated idea that dinosaurs - or any other extinct life-form - went extinct because they were an evolutionary dead end. (Also, since I do not know a single nerd who isn't into dinosaurs the…

trivia: you just made me wonder what's the etymology of dinosaur, https://www.etymonline.com/word/dinosaur#etymonline_v_8600 says it's from "deinos "terrible" (see dire)". seems that from start, people in the field had this view of crippled genus

It means terror inducing, not bad or substandard

Re: Mourning Google

#178

Post by ecshafer »

gumballindie wrote: post #139
rm_-rf_slash wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google never stole? That’s a memory hole if I’ve ever seen one https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Authors_Guild,_Inc._v._Googl... .

Openai's entire business model and product offerings are based on theft. Google's no saint, but the scale and scope are rather different. Furthermore, openai's shills spamming forums to defend the practice is unseen in intensity.

Training models is fair use, and i think the courts will agree with that. Saying its based on theft is not so cut and dry as youre making it out.

Re: Mourning Google

#179

Post by Certhas »

Roark66 wrote: post #156
nostrademons wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This description actually makes me feel like the metaphor is more apt. The dinosaurs went down because they were large, complex lifeforms that required a vibrant, complex ecosystem to support them. Amidst a fundamental shift to that ecosystem, large complex organisms were the first to go down. This is a general pattern - complex systems are always the first to collapse when there's a shift in the ecosystem, because t…

>As for what will take them down - all large institutions are failing right now. The public education system. The health care system. The government. The mass media. The immigration system, and general idea of national borders. The zoning / building code / housing system. Childcare. Wouldn't surprise me if we see the financial system, currency, and military go down next. The trigger is part climate change, part demog…

With you on "institutions are not failing as such".

As for biggest challenges: You _massively_ underestimate climate change, and the way it is entangled with everything else. There have always been authoritarian nations. The so called free world does not seem notably more corrupt than it was 50 years ago, it is in many ways freer than it has ever been (see the annoyance and backlash of those that don't think the freedom should extend to such things as chosing your gender), and it's economic power remains unmatched for now.

But: We already live in a changed climate. This means we no longer speculate about the damages climate change will do, we can measure them in macroeconomic data already [1]. This was a huge surprise to ke. I would have expected economic systems to be much more resilient to the warming already seen.

We are facing a situation where the world's poorest are experiencing reduced growth (meaning not fewer corporate profits, but people fleeing hunger and destitution), while we are all dealing with a massively increased number of extreme events (which _will_ stress institutions not adapted to the new normal, possibly to the breaking point), while we also have to transform or economic systems towards carbon neutrality to prevent even more catastrophic impacts.

This is fertile ground for authoritarians, democratic backsliding, loss of liberties and institutional failure.

[1] e.g.: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00985-5

Re: Mourning Google

#180

Post by blackmesaind »

whythre wrote: post #173
glimshe wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Large institutions have been "failing" for over a century, in most countries, similar to things in orbit being always "falling". Just go find old newspapers and you'll see similar wording. The constant criticism and renewal of our institutions is part of the system.

You aren’t wrong, but we used to teach Latin in schools. Things aren’t getting better in a lot of these arenas, they are being chipped away… and the center cannot hold forever.

I don't find the lack of Latin in public education to be particularly alarming, and I've found that it's been replaced by subjects a bit more relevant to the modern day (i.e. Comp Sci)
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