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NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF

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Re: NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF

#171

Post by ForHackernews »

tchaffee wrote: post #162
3cats-in-a-coat wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re not thinking through what you’re talking about, unfortunately that’s typical. Think about it, how can there be a “SHORTAGE of jobs”, when we have over 8 billion people on this planet? Are we running out of people in general? No. Is everyone employed and happy? No. So we are short of the kind of increasingly mythical people with 20 years experience in some tech that came out yesterday, we’re short of people wit…

Your reasoning seems logical at first glance so I can understand why you would come to your conclusions. History shows you to be wrong. It doesn't take a high IQ to use a machine to hugely increase your productivity. And in some cases the machine is easier to operate. I'll take a car over a horse any day. Salaries for low skill jobs in the US are going up. UPS drivers now get paid close to $200k. The labor shortage i…

> UPS drivers now get paid close to $200k.

The key being that UPS drivers are unionized.

If your argument is that the increasingly obsolete humans need to band together and take wealth back from the owners of the robots, then I agree.

Re: NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF

#172

Post by [deleted] »

tchaffee wrote: post #162
3cats-in-a-coat wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re not thinking through what you’re talking about, unfortunately that’s typical. Think about it, how can there be a “SHORTAGE of jobs”, when we have over 8 billion people on this planet? Are we running out of people in general? No. Is everyone employed and happy? No. So we are short of the kind of increasingly mythical people with 20 years experience in some tech that came out yesterday, we’re short of people wit…

Your reasoning seems logical at first glance so I can understand why you would come to your conclusions. History shows you to be wrong. It doesn't take a high IQ to use a machine to hugely increase your productivity. And in some cases the machine is easier to operate. I'll take a car over a horse any day. Salaries for low skill jobs in the US are going up. UPS drivers now get paid close to $200k. The labor shortage i…

[deleted]

Re: NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF

#173

Post by 3cats-in-a-coat »

ForHackernews wrote: post #171
tchaffee wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your reasoning seems logical at first glance so I can understand why you would come to your conclusions. History shows you to be wrong. It doesn't take a high IQ to use a machine to hugely increase your productivity. And in some cases the machine is easier to operate. I'll take a car over a horse any day. Salaries for low skill jobs in the US are going up. UPS drivers now get paid close to $200k. The labor shortage i…

> UPS drivers now get paid close to $200k. The key being that UPS drivers are unionized . If your argument is that the increasingly obsolete humans need to band together and take wealth back from the owners of the robots, then I agree.

The problem is that history shows there is no such thing as humans banding together and taking things back. As a group. The group has new “benevolent leaders” emerge, then they take everything and stop being benevolent very quickly, if not instantly. Animal Farm anyone? Animal Farm. Still relevant.

Re: NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF

#174

Post by ngc248 »

3cats-in-a-coat wrote: post #151
pirate787 wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your Luddite take is profoundly wrong, and has been consistently proven wrong at every single technological turn in history. We have more robots than even today, and yet a labor SHORTAGE. Eliminating the tedious and dangerous task of driving is an enormous benefit to humanity that will save 30,000+ lives a year in the US alone. We will end the misery caused to millions from injury and tragedy, and the billions of dol…

You’re not thinking through what you’re talking about, unfortunately that’s typical. Think about it, how can there be a “SHORTAGE of jobs”, when we have over 8 billion people on this planet? Are we running out of people in general? No. Is everyone employed and happy? No. So we are short of the kind of increasingly mythical people with 20 years experience in some tech that came out yesterday, we’re short of people wit…

Its not just tech, there is a shortage in the trades and skilled labor

Re: NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF

#175

Post by ghaff »

ForHackernews wrote: post #169
pirate787 wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your Luddite take is profoundly wrong, and has been consistently proven wrong at every single technological turn in history. We have more robots than even today, and yet a labor SHORTAGE. Eliminating the tedious and dangerous task of driving is an enormous benefit to humanity that will save 30,000+ lives a year in the US alone. We will end the misery caused to millions from injury and tragedy, and the billions of dol…

Do we have a labor shortage, or do we have a shortage at the wages companies are prepared to pay? There's a largely unexamined assumption built into capitalism that there exists a market clearing wage where humans will be incentivized to provide labor and owners will reap a profit. But what if that assumption is breaking down? My most "valuable" skill is writing software, but it may soon be the case that ChatGPT 9 ca…

>Do we have a labor shortage, or do we have a shortage at the wages companies are prepared to pay?

There are a ton of services that I'd be happy to have people perform for me, but there's some upper limit to what I'm willing/able to pay. This applies directly or through some (capitalist) intermediary. If it's going to cost me $1,000 for you to cut my lawn, I'll either do it myself or just let it grow.

Re: NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF

#176

Post by ForHackernews »

3cats-in-a-coat wrote: post #173
ForHackernews wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> UPS drivers now get paid close to $200k. The key being that UPS drivers are unionized . If your argument is that the increasingly obsolete humans need to band together and take wealth back from the owners of the robots, then I agree.

The problem is that history shows there is no such thing as humans banding together and taking things back. As a group. The group has new “benevolent leaders” emerge, then they take everything and stop being benevolent very quickly, if not instantly. Animal Farm anyone? Animal Farm. Still relevant.

That sounds to me like you're repeating dogma, but even if it's true, that's fine by me. I'd rather my union steward was getting rich (for some low value of 'rich') than my CEO. Only one of them is on my side.

Re: NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF

#177

Post by ghaff »

dageshi wrote: post #146
taurath wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I wonder if this is a function of how “around the corner” this tech has felt for so long? Have we somehow become jaded to this innovation before it has even arrived? The end customer experience is nearly identical to having a quiet driver. A taxi is still a taxi. Someone having their own self driving car would be a big change. Being able to not own a car because of cheap shared self driving vehicles would be intere…

I'd assume so? The biggest expense has to be the drivers time right?

Maybe--but probably not to the degree that everything else is almost too cheap to meter. I think the IRS rate is something like $0.67 per mile these days which is, while arguably high as a marginal cost, probably a pretty good place to serve as a baseline for self-driving costs (assuming the cost of the vehicle isn't significantly higher).

Re: NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF

#178

Post by ForHackernews »

ghaff wrote: post #175
ForHackernews wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do we have a labor shortage, or do we have a shortage at the wages companies are prepared to pay? There's a largely unexamined assumption built into capitalism that there exists a market clearing wage where humans will be incentivized to provide labor and owners will reap a profit. But what if that assumption is breaking down? My most "valuable" skill is writing software, but it may soon be the case that ChatGPT 9 ca…

>Do we have a labor shortage, or do we have a shortage at the wages companies are prepared to pay? There are a ton of services that I'd be happy to have people perform for me, but there's some upper limit to what I'm willing/able to pay. This applies directly or through some (capitalist) intermediary. If it's going to cost me $1,000 for you to cut my lawn, I'll either do it myself or just let it grow.

Exactly. So what happens when the amount they're willing to pay is much lower than what it costs to live? If the robo lawnmowers will cut grass (and the occasional hand or foot) for $1/hour, what happens to the people who work as landscapers? Maybe you could argue they'll shift higher up the value chain, designing gardens or planting flowers and we'll all have prettier gardens... but I'm not sure the story of the last 50 years has been a race to the top.

Re: NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF

#179

Post by ChatGTP »

jeffbee wrote: post #74
unyttigfjelltol wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a kind of Rube Goldberg contraption for getting around town..... The most complex gizmo possible for the most mundane of tasks.

In a city as hilly as sf getting around in an electric car is a real benefit that saves a great deal of effort. I’d rather have core bus lines that run on 2-3 minute headways instead, but I’ll take what I can get.

It's a fair point, it is sad that we will continue to move around 1tn+ of automobile for one person just to go up and down hills :(

Re: NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF

#180

Post by 3cats-in-a-coat »

ForHackernews wrote: post #169
pirate787 wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your Luddite take is profoundly wrong, and has been consistently proven wrong at every single technological turn in history. We have more robots than even today, and yet a labor SHORTAGE. Eliminating the tedious and dangerous task of driving is an enormous benefit to humanity that will save 30,000+ lives a year in the US alone. We will end the misery caused to millions from injury and tragedy, and the billions of dol…

Do we have a labor shortage, or do we have a shortage at the wages companies are prepared to pay? There's a largely unexamined assumption built into capitalism that there exists a market clearing wage where humans will be incentivized to provide labor and owners will reap a profit. But what if that assumption is breaking down? My most "valuable" skill is writing software, but it may soon be the case that ChatGPT 9 ca…

That’s indeed one of many ways people are driven out a job market that seemingly is hungry for jobs.

Posting unrealistic job offers can be a way to cover legal requirements or excuse yourself for automating everything. Or it can be business owners legitimately searching the space if humans can provide better value than machines, and increasingly finding that… no.

I wonder what would happen if people kept posting jobs for human calculators up to 2023.

“Must work without sleep, perform all calculations up to at least 9 digits, make no mistakes and provide instant answers. Management occasionally may curse and be violent towards the calculator, when the numbers are bad for business (must keep quiet and take it). Salary: $12 (per year)”.

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