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How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

economist.com

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Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#171

Post by adventured »

renewiltord wrote: post #65

It's interesting to see that, in the end, the domestic manufacturing guys were right but in a different way. The biggest blockers to America presently are ossified construction and manufacturing. Chip fabs delayed due to local red tape. Ammo factories cannot expand manufacturing because they are now historic buildings. Fascinating.

These 'problems' are all solved with more funds, which the US Government has a very, very large supply of (courtesy of the global reserve currency).

Producing more ammo isn't a serious problem, it's a trivial problem that the Pentagon & Co. are in the process of resolving.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#172

Post by v8xi »

cezart wrote: post #56
hospitalJail wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does that include the several hundred billion dollars from CHIPS act? That was a sad moment last year, I am extremely concerned we Zombified our tech sector.

Can you please elaborate what the issues are, and what do you mean by Zombified?

I've seen this argument elsewhere so I think I know what he means. Basically the idea is you throw money around too easily and companies that would otherwise die (due to poor management/inability to compete) stay around. Too much subsidy yields poor incentive to compete yields fewer breakthroughs and slower technological progress.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#173

Post by GloriousKoji »

boringg wrote: post #129

How much of this chipmaking renaissance can be compared to the American Factory Netflix documentary having some of the same challenges? I understand that shows the difference in culture more than anything but underneath it also speaks of efficiency which is of high importance.

I think a few key differences compared American Factory is the Chinese glass factory effectively replaced the automotive factory, China doesn't have strong relations to the US, and the factory was framed as the project of one Chinese businessman.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#174

Post by jayd16 »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #136
jayd16 wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like a union could help but I guess the odds of that are slim.

Is there anything a union can't help with, in your estimation?

Of course they don't help everything but setting up a seniority system is a common and well tread union policy and solves the stated problem.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#175

Post by vel0city »

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #125
bob1029 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been thinking about moving out to that area. Building these fabs will do amazing things for the local community & economy. It is also likely the most resilient part of the TX power grid...

"the most resilient part of TX power grid" A roommate of mine once quipped on something: 'that's like saying my crap smells better than yours'. Feel free to correct me, I'm not an expert, but Texas runs its own state-only independent grid, it got completely pants in the ice storm a few years ago, and at the time a lot of articles said the Texas grid is fundamentally less resilient that other power companies. Is any o…

Lots of places face challenges with reliable delivery during massive storms. See NY earlier this year.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#176

Post by adventured »

jgeada wrote: post #81
addfgionio wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hard to fake a building going up.

The building is the easy part, almost trivial part. Getting the enough ASML machines to supply a fab for an advanced process (and they have a backlog that is almost a decade long), starting up the whole complex logistical process to feed the fab (with lots of single source suppliers that are already committed to the existing fab capacity), getting all the necessary personal and skillsets started and getting the fab w…

The solution to what you mention is to turn the big levers that have an outsized impact.

Such as slashing the corporate tax rate (and the offset is to raise the individual tax rate on higher incomes). Which is the Ireland model, and it works extraordinarily well (even more so if you already have a desirable foundation). Cut it far enough and it'll lure more companies and jobs than you can absorb. And meanwhile the corporate income tax is an increasingly trivial component of the US Government's funding, it's no longer very important. If anything we should cut it further (~15%) and very aggressively pull companies, investment, R&D, manufacturing out of foreign nations and into the US. The corporate tax rate is a magnet, the lower you go the stronger it is (and there is no doubt a significant diminishing of returns as you go below a certain % figure).

Increase the standing incentives (not only one-off programs like the CHIPS Act).

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#177

Post by vel0city »

dpflan wrote: post #35
bob1029 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been thinking about moving out to that area. Building these fabs will do amazing things for the local community & economy. It is also likely the most resilient part of the TX power grid...

I'm definitely interested in how the communities build up to support this long term, assuming best conditions. I'm curious about investment into education that can lead to further economic developments (e.g. rise in engineering education due to factors like proximity to tech jobs that can persist, i.e. working at a fab (in any capacity) is good job/career to learn/work towards).

> I'm definitely interested in how the communities build up to support this long term

From a North Texas perspective, the communities were already built up. The first integrated circuit was made in North Texas. DFW has some of the highest number of fabs per square mile, tons of small producers around along with some of the big behemoths.

North Texas has been a pretty big semiconductor manufacturer since semiconductor manufacturing has been a thing.

For a historical context of the history of the community of semiconductors in North Texas, JFK was shot on his way going to give a speech at what would become UT Dallas, a school whose entire history is focused on semiconductors.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#178

Post by red-iron-pine »

robertlagrant wrote: post #143
alephnerd wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> However, Texas is loaded with sun/desert and I believe a ton of wind resources, so it has that going for it for next-generation industry. Surprisingly, you got to thank George Bush for that He made renewable wind and solar energy a major part of his energy policy when he was Govenor of TX. [0]. In 1999, he passed a law mandating Texas to get 2,000 megawatts of electricity from renewable energy by 2009. This helped…

Why's that surprising?

Because the Bushs are a family of oil types

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#179

Post by asow92 »

jjoonathan wrote: post #108
bagacrap wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why can't you learn the next tool? Everyone in a tech field has to retain the ability to learn new things over time. AI might not take our jobs but it will likely change them. I guess it sucks if you have a fear of learning. Admittedly, at first learning a new thing can be kind of uncomfortable, like getting into a cold swimming pool. But once you get over the initial shock and start moving around, it's not so bad.

Because the business needs you to keep putting out fires in the old tool while your younger, cheaper replacement trains on the new tool!

Sounds like the old tool maintainer isn't leveraging their scarcity power. If their skills are in high demand and short supply, and they can't be replaced, then shouldn't they make things take longer as they learn new tool?

Of course this accelerates the business’s desire to adopt the new tool sooner, so they best hurry!

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#180

Post by red-iron-pine »

dealuromanet wrote: post #128
laidoffamazon wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The political valence of this could be significant next year. This is a lot of high paying, high-demand jobs in multiple sectors of the economy from just one of 3 major pillars of the administration's agenda.

What kind of salary ranges do you expect for these roles and in what metro areas?

North Texas, North Mexico, and chunks of the broader west coast, esp. Boise and Portland.

all sorts of roles but middling pay and long hours. not quite the Chinese 996 but taking hints from it; the Taiwanese version, essentially

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