Live data from Hacker News

Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

fortune.com

171–180 of 241 posts

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#171
“ Office occupancy fell less than a point last week to 49.7%, according to Kastle’s 10-city Back to Work Barometer. Occupancy dipped across seven of the 10 tracked cities — except for Chicago, Dallas, and San Jose, Calif. Chicago continued its post-pandemic climb and rose half a point to 54.7% occupancy, surpassing last week’s record high. Dallas and San Jose also rose nearly half a point to 54.5% and 39.4% occupancy, respectively. The average daily high was Tuesday at 59.2% and the low was Friday at 32.8%.”

That’s from KASTLE Systems, an office access management company. The office occupancy rates across the US have stagnated and don’t seem to be increasing. I don’t see why occupancy rates would go back to pre-Covid levels ever again. The work from home transition is permanent.

Therefore, valuations of office space will eventually have to be marked down and given the leveraged nature of the market, the markdown’s impact on commercial real estate corporate valuations ought to be magnified considerably.

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#172
post #64

If you look on loopnet, the cost of office versus warehouse per sq ft is staggering. It's a large visual indicator of a bubble. I've been looking for 1500-3000 sq ft for a light manufacturing space for around two years. In my area warehouse $/sqft is $5-7 a year. Office space is $13 for old and dated layouts. I have no use for that dotcom era conference room. I need 10 ft dock doors, tall ceilings, and reliable 3 pha…

What would be a non bubble price to you for industrial space?

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#173
post #20

crazy idea: us govt scoops up all the office real estate at the crash and converts to low income housing for free. Solve two crisis at once, the obviously coming real estate crisis and the homeless crisis. All for the cost of a handful of F35s If only politicians had an iota of strategy.

Cheaper to tear down commercial RE and rebuild multi-family than to attempt a conversion. Floor plates made of high tension steel can’t be broken up for replumbing, usually you’ll want or need elevators & interior courtyards needed for lighting. There are very different water & electrical requirements Maybe there’s a creative way to do low-income housing meaning only a window or two in the whole unit, no individual H…

Communal housing floors. Facilities and shared kitchen in center core. Modern buildings already support wide flexibility for walling working areas.

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#174
post #130

The reasoning in this article seems specious. Malls and offices are not the locus of the same activities. fwiw I've RTOed for three to four days a week and I love it. I think it will continue to gain currency with a lot of folks who are serious about their work at companies with other employees who are also serious about their work.

So you're saying that people over at companies like Basecamp have never been "serious about their work"? Seems unlikely to me.

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Develop the conserved federal land? No way. Let's redevelop some of the effing parking lots and one-storey strip malls that take up half the land space in most US cities. Real life example, Assembly Square near Boston: https://twitter.com/ScoutSomerville/status/12117083803913666...

Assembly Square - reminds me the South Park episode - city part of town - https://southpark.fandom.com/wiki/The_City_Part_of_Town

Yeah, except the whole gentrification bit in the episode doesn't apply since nobody lived in Assembly until they redeveloped it.

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#176
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Code requirements for housing are far more strict. One of the reasons you don't regularly see office building conversions is because homes require things like windows for each bedroom or at least one bathroom per home. While the bathrooms can be fixed with effort, windows mean a lot of office spaces would have empty cores as only the square footage near the outer edge of the building would be used. (This isn't my are…

The real issue is plumbing. You need more plumbing in residential real estate. Many buildings are difficult to retrofit because they use a type of compressed concrete floor that cannot be safely drilled. Cheaper to demo.

Can they run the plumbing on the outside of the building?

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#177
post #130

The reasoning in this article seems specious. Malls and offices are not the locus of the same activities. fwiw I've RTOed for three to four days a week and I love it. I think it will continue to gain currency with a lot of folks who are serious about their work at companies with other employees who are also serious about their work.

I don't think RTO and "serious about work" are directly proportional. Some people are much more productive away from a noisy and distractive environment. I think it just depends on the person

I went back to the office recently for a day, and got literally nothing done.

Pretty much all my coworkers also reckon they are much less productive in the office.

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#178

Zero sympathy. Happy for the tyranny of the office to fade away.

> Zero sympathy. For Wall Street & the billionaires? Reasonable. But the crash will cause vastly more suffering for normal people than for the 0.1%.

So what, we’re all supposed to be happy going back to a miserable life of commuting 2-3 hours a day to work in miserable open office layout nightmare factories to “soften the blow” (that might not happen) for everyone else?

Nah. I’m good. The world has changed. Adapt or die.

Frankly, between AI and remote work, I’m happy to watch our miserable current instance of the world burn to the ground.

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the United States, the government holds hundreds of millions of acres of land in trust... True. > ... and it needs to be relinquished in part to help grow the actual base of humanity they hold stewardship over Almost entirely false. See, the land they hold, they hold because nobody ever claimed it under the Homestead Act. Nobody could figure out how to grow enough to feed a family, even with 168 acres of it. Thi…

Wikipedia has a map of the ownership of federal lands here: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:US_federal_land.agen... , the yellow lands are the lands never sold and largely represent the stock of available federal land. The green lands are parks and US forest (which is often, but not always, parkland as well in some sense); the red isn't the federal government's, it's Indian; and the other land is owned by age…

fixed link [1]

[1] https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:US_federal_land.agen...

Post reply on HN