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The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

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Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#171

Post by anjc »

withinboredom wrote: post #74
hardware2win wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>will the world still be habitable in 20 years' time I dont know anyone that is seriously worried about this in such a way And dont get me wrong - we arent climate change deniers, just... pick your battles Why waste your life worrying about something you have tiny impact on?

Before having a child, it was something I thought about and my wife and I would occasionally discuss. Now my son asks, "How can you do this to me? You've screwed up our planet and there is nothing I can do for at least ten years," (direct quote after coming home from school yesterday -- he's 9). Our kids are worried about it, more so than our generation, that's for sure.

Are you going to raise this with the school? It seems highly inappropriate on their part

Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#172

Post by CalRobert »

DoingIsLearning wrote: post #25
CalRobert wrote: post #10

Hopefully we can do this for the species as a whole and gradually find equilibrium at a more sustainable population.

It's game theory the same as pollution. "We" can do whatever we want but if not "everyone" is doing it then the impact is fairly limited. You would be better off having children and just consuming less than making a grave decision that impacts your whole family tree for the sake of a Humanity collective that likely will not be making the same "sacrifice".

I don't see how a two-child family is a sacrifice, really. But regardless, it seems like people have fewer children by choice as they become wealthier, have better access to education and birth control, etc.

How many families are large because the person who had to be pregnant had no real say in the matter?

Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#173

Post by throwaw12 »

kbrkbr wrote: post #154
throwaw12 wrote: post #23

> This decline cannot be explained by demographic, economic, or policy changes. I disagree with this statement. Put yourself in the shoes of 25 years old and ask why don't you want to have kids? * (economic) difficult to manage finances * (economic) can't buy house, too expensive * (economic) to compete with others in the workplace, I need to work >12 hours/day, can't do with kids or will be laid off. * (sociologic)…

But why is this trend then not visible in Germany? All of what you say applies there too. https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoel...

there are couple of differences between EU and US which can introduce confusion:

1. EU countries sees a lot immigration from Middle East and Africa, who has more kids and there is still a cultural difference towards having kids, give some time to those people to notice the environment and you see similar trend

2. but also EU countries have stronger labor policies which impacts birth rate. Not easy to fire, even when they don't have a job, they get support from government, cheap healthcare (I pay ~250-300 EUR/month for a family, no payment for kids), free dentist until 18 years for kids.

It doesn't cancel what I have said about the impact and reasons, if same conditions exist in EU countries as well, you would see similar decline, which also means this is a political and economical issue

Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#174

Post by CalRobert »

exitb wrote: post #18
CalRobert wrote: post #10

Hopefully we can do this for the species as a whole and gradually find equilibrium at a more sustainable population.

Is there a factor that would make it stabilise at some equilibrium, rather than fall indefinitely?

Certainly. Continuing to grow the population ad infinitum could result in a population crash that settles down at 0 people after we have pushed the world to 5C+ warming.

Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#175

Post by CalRobert »

red_admiral wrote: post #46
throwaw12 wrote: post #23

> This decline cannot be explained by demographic, economic, or policy changes. I disagree with this statement. Put yourself in the shoes of 25 years old and ask why don't you want to have kids? * (economic) difficult to manage finances * (economic) can't buy house, too expensive * (economic) to compete with others in the workplace, I need to work >12 hours/day, can't do with kids or will be laid off. * (sociologic)…

* (sociologic) fear of climate change (will the world still be habitable in 20 years' time) or commitment to make a small positive impact on climate change by not having kids I'm not saying this is true or rational (there are actually blog posts in the rationalist community along the lines of "no, having kids does not cause climate change") but it's definitely a sentiment I've encountered.

It's not about whether your kids will cause climate change. It's about creating children just in time for them to suffer through the collapse of civilisation.

Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#176

Post by throwaw12 »

balfirevic wrote: post #158
throwaw12 wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am an engineer as well, in western Europe with kids. But I regularly see people committing code at 9pm or commenting on docs at 11pm or see their testing traces (logs) at 1am and on weekends. I can't compete with them in any way. "Don't work hard, work smarter" doesn't apply here, because I am surrounded by smart people, who also do smart work, when baseline is same, you just need to work more. Guess who will be li…

> But I regularly see people committing code at 9pm or commenting on docs at 11pm or see their testing traces (logs) at 1am and on weekends That might not mean much - you'd see the same from me, but I don't work more than 8 hours/day (on average), I just work very irregular hours.

> I just work very irregular hours.

Do you also come to office and spend 8 hours, even if you do nothing? I see those people in the office almost regularly

Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#177

Post by lynx23 »

pjc50 wrote: post #164
lynx23 wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe that seeking external recognition is only necessary when one is unsure and requires external validation to feel confident.

No, there are all sorts of very specific and sometimes tragic cases like "who is allowed at the bedside of their dying spouse in the hospital" where official recognition matters. The AIDS crisis produced a number of those incidents, but it's also happened to straight people as well that if you're not officially married you may find your partner's family having legal rights which you don't.

So, to sum it up, straight people marry so that one can not run away easily, and gay people marry for increased closeness? :-) In any case, this subthread was about the inequality between straight couples, so...

Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#178

Post by kbrkbr »

throwaw12 wrote: post #173
kbrkbr wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But why is this trend then not visible in Germany? All of what you say applies there too. https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoel...

there are couple of differences between EU and US which can introduce confusion: 1. EU countries sees a lot immigration from Middle East and Africa, who has more kids and there is still a cultural difference towards having kids, give some time to those people to notice the environment and you see similar trend 2. but also EU countries have stronger labor policies which impacts birth rate. Not easy to fire, even when…

This may well be true. But it also may well be not true to the extend that it can explain that decline in US and the differences to similar countries. So far I’ve not seen much data to back up the alleged causality in much of this entire discussion.

Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#179

Post by withinboredom »

anjc wrote: post #171
withinboredom wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Before having a child, it was something I thought about and my wife and I would occasionally discuss. Now my son asks, "How can you do this to me? You've screwed up our planet and there is nothing I can do for at least ten years," (direct quote after coming home from school yesterday -- he's 9). Our kids are worried about it, more so than our generation, that's for sure.

Are you going to raise this with the school? It seems highly inappropriate on their part

Why would I bring my son’s opinions up with the school? Because they learned about global warming? Nah, we had a sit down talk about it and how it isn’t “any one specific person’s” fault.

Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#180

Post by RhysU »

throwaw12 wrote: post #23

> This decline cannot be explained by demographic, economic, or policy changes. I disagree with this statement. Put yourself in the shoes of 25 years old and ask why don't you want to have kids? * (economic) difficult to manage finances * (economic) can't buy house, too expensive * (economic) to compete with others in the workplace, I need to work >12 hours/day, can't do with kids or will be laid off. * (sociologic)…

There's a comical Jurassic Park "life finds a way" outcome lurking... those reproductively restricted by these ideas gradually will be replaced by those who are not so inhibited.
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