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Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

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Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#171

Post by barbariangrunge »

pier25 wrote: post #148
dagmx wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of people will likely blame APIs etc, but that’s just an easy scapegoat for people outside the game dev industry. The reality is likely just market share, hardware and the makeup of that market share. Macs used to actually be a big gaming platform once upon a time. Myst was a Mac exclusive (built with HyperCard) and Bungie used to make games for macs first before getting bought by Microsoft. But windows got the…

You can't ignore API reasons though. Before Metal, macOS used to ship with old OpenGL versions. I remember around the Tiger days (10.4) OpenGL was 4-5 years old compared to the version shipped in Windows. And with DirectX, Windows had a better API about two decades before Metal for macOS was released. I do agree with your other points. Macs are expensive so they are always going to be a niche market. And in most coun…

They are making such a device. It’s called a Mac mini.

Seriously though, one hiccup for gaming in macs is the screen resolution: it’s not until recently you could get good performance at such high dpis in games, especially on a laptop. Now that gpus can push those pixels better than before, it will start being more viable to make games for macs

Also, macs are all about being premium while enabling ecosystem lock in. When they have to compete with diy desktops with hot swappable, upgradeable hardware, how can apple possibly charge such a premium for their gaming machines? How can they differentiate via software when gamers don’t care about their os — they want their os to get out of the way so they can game? Apple can’t. So they don’t even try. It would hurt their brand to be seen struggling like that

They won’t compete until they see a way to use their playbooks to gain a platform advantage. Eg, ar/vr with m3 chips

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#172

Post by josephcsible »

freedomben wrote: post #166
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this legitimately the only realistic option?

Why would this affect Apple? I would think China would not want to destroy TSMC, quite the opposite they'd love to have it. They would also want to get Taiwan humming economically again as fast as possible. Apple has been plenty happy to work with the CCP in the past, so I don't understand how/why this would bankrupt Apple or really even cause them lots of problems.

China wouldn't want to destroy TSMC. The West would rather destroy TSMC than let China have it.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#173

Post by zitterbewegung »

ftxbro wrote: post #16
samwillis wrote: post #2

Some people may criticise the "monopoly" Apply have of TSMC latest nodes, but I think it's ultimately good. TSMC need to know they have a customer for new nodes in order to invest in them, thats what Apple are in the unique position to give with their war chest of cash. This investment by Apple eventually leads its way to other customers and smaller businesses. The whole industry thrives on the wake Apple leaves behi…

It looks like the local-LLM enthusiasts will want to use Apple computers. This is funny to me for some reason, like if the most cost-effective work boot of 2025 is produced by Gucci.

Not many laptops have 64 gb of RAM that can run llama.cpp https://gist.github.com/zitterbewegung/4787e42617aa0be6019c3...

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#174

Post by dagmx »

pier25 wrote: post #169
dagmx wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just don’t think API matters if the capabilities are there. Look at Linux gaming, OpenGL was up to date and prevalent, but the majority of games are actually translating DirectX to Vulkan and using WINE. Most games are using off the shelf engines that support Metal anyway, so I think api would only matter for the small subset of games using custom engines. Regarding your point of the US, I should clarify that I did…

> Look at Linux gaming Linux is just non existent from a mainstream audience perspective, let alone the gaming market. > Most games are using off the shelf engines that support Metal anyway, so I think api would only matter for the small subset of games using custom engines. Today yes, it's easy to make a Mac game wit UE or Unity. But back 15-20 years ago? BTW I'm not arguing API is the main reason Mac failed as a ga…

I’m referencing this

https://www.wsj.com/articles/apple-doesnt-make-videogames-bu...

(Non paywalled summary)

https://www.nme.com/en_au/news/gaming-news/apple-profited-mo...

Of course the WSJ may be wrong, but it’s based off of profit whereas your link seems to be revenue. Which would enable both to be true I think.

Regarding the other point of 15-20 years ago, OpenGL only started stagnating on the Mac with 4.1 in 2010. Prior to that gaming was still really missing on a Mac.

I’m also in agreement that it can’t be ignored. I just think it’s overstated.

But in general I think we’re saying the same things, and debating the nuances.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#175

Post by Maursault »

bhj wrote: post #158
Maursault wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are two issues. 1) Apple Silicon won't support PCIe. 2) Apple doesn't want it to. #2 means Apple is taking nVidia and AMD head on in the GPU space. Apple wants to control everything, and allowing these competitors on their platform is giving away too much. Because Apple Silicon scales better than competitors' hw, the desire for third party GPU is probably going to evaporate within a few generations of Apple Sil…

AS supports Thunderbolt just fine. Isn't the lack of eGPU support due to lack of ARM drivers for them?

To suggest it is merely lack of drivers is an oversimplification. There is a chip errata that prevents PCIe GPUs from working properly on Apple Silicon: the architectures are not compatible. Apple Silicon GPU drivers are deeply integrated into the system. Due to this integration, only graphics cards that use the same GPU architecture as Apple Silicon could be supported, and there just aren't any, and I don't see how there could be unless Apple developed one and released it.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#176

Post by jb1991 »

cortesoft wrote: post #161
Veliladon wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They make about 50 a year. One of the parts in these machines is a 30cm mirror that is the flattest that humans can make with our current level of technology. If you have a way to churn them out please let Zeiss SMT know.

Do whatever they are doing now, but twice? What in the process wouldn’t work with this method?

Peak HN. Surely a casual brainstorm by a casual reader of the thread somehow unlocks all of the challenges that ASML is facing.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#177

Post by gamblor956 »

cortesoft wrote: post #161
Veliladon wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They make about 50 a year. One of the parts in these machines is a 30cm mirror that is the flattest that humans can make with our current level of technology. If you have a way to churn them out please let Zeiss SMT know.

Do whatever they are doing now, but twice? What in the process wouldn’t work with this method?

Doing twice as much of it wouldn't scale.

Making a super-flat mirror is extremely difficult and requires state-of-the-art facilities, and state-of-the-art equipment. And highly trained, experienced employees. And there aren't enough of any of that to scale rapidly.

It's not just about scaling 1 input. You have to scale the entire supply chain.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#178

Post by sosodev »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #58

I’d love some super smart technologist in this forum to give a realistic and practical pathway to disrupting apple in the mobile or “computer” market. Given the fact that Apple has such a dominant position in every part of the supply chain infrastructure I’m challenged with being able to see how any organization could possibly come up with something that pushes Apple into bankruptcy.

Is this really something a technologist could take on? Apple could almost certainly copy and improve any hot new tech before it has time to seriously hurt their bottom line. They have a ton of resources...

My guess is that only another Apple could dethrone Apple. That's to say a company that produces high quality products with strong branding consistently over multiple decades. Google and Samsung are competitors but in my mind, as an Apple user, their products are not worthy quality wise of the luxury prices they demand.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#179

Post by philistine »

josephcsible wrote: post #172
freedomben wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would this affect Apple? I would think China would not want to destroy TSMC, quite the opposite they'd love to have it. They would also want to get Taiwan humming economically again as fast as possible. Apple has been plenty happy to work with the CCP in the past, so I don't understand how/why this would bankrupt Apple or really even cause them lots of problems.

China wouldn't want to destroy TSMC. The West would rather destroy TSMC than let China have it.

If China invades, the West probably couldn't swallow Russian-style sanctions for the whole country, but it would assuredly enact sanctions related to activity in Taiwan. TSMC is not trading with China suppliers to make its chips, its trading West.

https://www.techspot.com/news/96291-taiwan-destroying-tsmc-e...

So TSMC would probably become irrelevant in due time if there were strong sanctions against China. That, and the persistent rumour that Taiwan has a plan to literally blow up the fabs if China invades gives us a picture were invading Taiwan is ideological for China, not an economic power grab.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#180

Post by ksec »

freedomben wrote: post #159
taylodl wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple's phone, tablet, laptop, and desktop products are computers. And they're making them faster, apparently. I would argue the phone is where the focus should be since that's the primary computer for many people around the world.

I think GP's point is not that apple's products aren't computers (they are of course, although Apple themselves has been positioning them less as general purpose computers and more as appliances, especially ios devices), but that it only runs/benefits apple's walled garden system. If it was open hardware it could benefit computers in general no matter what OS you run, whether embedded and tiny or huge gaming workstat…

But it is not that only Apple gets to enjoy it, Other computer system do as well. Just a year later. Or any time other competitor are willing to pay up.
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