Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Page 16 > https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/ >> Have they modeled all the different plausible crops and agricultural techniques, which regional environmental conditions they're most suited for, and the transitions between them based on regional climate change effects? > Seems so. I'm not seeing it. I'm assuming you mean page 16 of the "Summary for Policymakers," but all that has is a unreadable map of "Maize Yield…
> So it sounds like they are not accounting for things like changes between crops or changing which areas are cultivated, which could be pretty significant. > it seems like you would have account for more Canadian land becoming arable and agriculture spreading further north. It's a map. It's litterally showing the changes by areas. And the map does show areas with increased maize yield, such as Southern Africa, but t…
One that appears to not answer the question I posed, or answer it in the negative (as in, they're not modeling realistic agricultural adaptations).
> It's litterally [sic] showing the changes by areas.
Apparently only "in currently cultivated areas." It's hard to get worked up over the predictions of a model that basically assumes everyone continues to do the exact same stuff while everything else changes, even if that would mean individuals fail to meet their short-term goals.
It wouldn't have been hard to depict the area under cultivation creeping further north (or the area under cultivation receding in other areas).
> Potentially the full volume will include other crops yields and more details that you are hoping for.
Those are not the details I'm looking for. It would be closer to what I'm looking for if they took that data, divided the world into plots, then for each scenario picked the highest yielding crop for that plot, to come up with an overall agricultural productivity estimate. I say that's only closer, because it presumably wouldn't reflect other reasonable and straightforward agricultural adaptations.