Mazda has tested a synthetic fuel in an unmodified MX5 on a 1000-mile road trip • Hacker News Board

Re: Mazda has tested a synthetic fuel in an unmodified MX5 on a 1000-mile road trip

#171

Post by masta » Mon, Jan 02, 2023, 8:42 PM UTC

mfer wrote: post #51

i_am_proteus wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, and: the question revolves around total financial and material capital needed to transition away from fossil fuels. Synthetic fuels are potentially valuable because they allow existing capital assets (internal combustion engines and the industry that produces them, fuel distribution infrastructure) to continue to be used. I am glad to see research into them continue- it's difficult to predict what will scale wel…

The cost to transition away from fossil fuels isn’t really talked about much. For example, our electric grid can’t handle everyone using electric cars. Everything from electricity production to distribution needs to be upgraded. There is a massive cost to that.

Same when we went from horse carriages to gasoline powered cars. There was no infrastructure in place to buy hydrocarbons for otto-engines, other than in pharmacies.

Industries are built when demand is rising, infrastructure always has to change to cover the needs of the population.

EVs will be important sinks for electrical energy in the future, to balance out demand.

Re: Mazda has tested a synthetic fuel in an unmodified MX5 on a 1000-mile road trip

#172

Post by scoopertrooper » Mon, Jan 02, 2023, 8:47 PM UTC

MuffinFlavored wrote: post #147

scoopertrooper wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because we could move the entire current stock of cars over to less carbon intensive fuel without having to build an entirely new fleet. Keeping in mind that manufacturing new cars (and the associated resource extraction) is extremely carbon intensive, then a carbon neutral-ish fuel might actually be the best option overall on a meaningful timescale.

if 87 octane gasoline is $2.99/gallon and this is even 30% more, I’m not sure how you can expect to force the majority of the population (who is supposedly scraping by) to switch maybe the government could subsidize it as national debt?

My comments were limited to the question as to why we might want to do this in preference to EVs. In the case of EVs, the energy source is cheaper, but there is a much higher capital expense as those poor folks who are just scraping by will have to go out and buy new cars.

Re: Mazda has tested a synthetic fuel in an unmodified MX5 on a 1000-mile road trip

#173

Post by theshrike79 » Mon, Jan 02, 2023, 9:20 PM UTC

kybernetyk wrote: post #166

D13Fd wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a ridiculous comparison. Google tells me an electric vehicle uses around 14kWh per day if you drive ~14k miles per year, and is much more efficient than an internal combustion engine. Your hypothetical 2kw space heater uses 24kWh a day and is drastically less efficient than a heat pump.

Peak loads let the grid collapse. Not constant loads over N hours. If everyone starts charging their EVs at roughly the same time (like when getting home from work) it won't matter that the EV uses less power over 24hours than a space heater. EV zealots are just blind to the issues their silver bullet creates. Just like the "walk-able cities" folks.

This is why we have different pricing for different hours. Only those that actually need the capacity will use the expensive power from 16-20.

Others will use dirt-cheap night time electricity.

And with Vehicle to Grid smart people can sell the extra energy in their car battery during peak hours and use the credits from that to charge their car overnight.

None of this is some kind of magical tech that's hard to use. Gridio (https://www.gridio.io) already exists and works directly with multiple EV brands.

Re: Mazda has tested a synthetic fuel in an unmodified MX5 on a 1000-mile road trip

#174

Post by theshrike79 » Mon, Jan 02, 2023, 9:21 PM UTC

kybernetyk wrote: post #74

brk wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the crypto mining dying off should free up a lot of grid resources for EVs. I've heard the "grid can't handle all EVs" statement, but have not seen anything backing up the claim. I believe the grid can in fact handle EVs becoming prevalent. We might need more power generation , which could be new plants, and/or residential solar. Baring some kind of crazy legislation requiring ICE vehicles to be crushed or perman…

In Germany the government asked people not to use electric heaters this winter because the grid could break down. An ev drains way more power then a 2kw space heater.

My EV is currently charging at 2.4kW power. Or was, I'm pretty sure the battery was already at limit a few hours ago.

The next time I need to plug it in is maybe on Saturday.

You need to use your electric heater 24/7 to not freeze.

Re: Mazda has tested a synthetic fuel in an unmodified MX5 on a 1000-mile road trip

#175

Post by theshrike79 » Mon, Jan 02, 2023, 9:25 PM UTC

enkid wrote: post #54

mrtksn wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, it's kind of obvious that the supplies of oil aren't infinite, isn't it? Is there even a theory that the oil is infinite? The peak oil is about timing and and cost, maybe it didn't happen according to the predictions but it will definitely happen. Besides the environmental concerns it also seems wasteful to burn away the stuff that is used for so many more things. The synthetic stuff is interesting because it m…

The proven oil reserves have steadily increased for the last decade, even as consumption has increased. This means that we are discovering oil faster than we are burning it. The Earth obviously can't have infinite oil, but we don't know how long until we run out, and it's likely well over fifty years from now.

Yes, we have known, untapped, oil reserves.

The problem with those is that Someone needs to front the billions to get them pumping - and with the current state of the world it's not guaranteed that they'll get their money back.

It's better for business to raise the price of existing oil production. C-staff gets their bonuses and stocks go up.

Re: Mazda has tested a synthetic fuel in an unmodified MX5 on a 1000-mile road trip

#176

Post by theshrike79 » Mon, Jan 02, 2023, 9:26 PM UTC

PaulHoule wrote: post #40

theshrike79 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current synthetic fuels cost around 10€/litre, which comes to around $37/gallon. Not really viable for day to day use yet.

Qatar claims their Methanol-to-Gasoline based factory is profitable at a world price of $40 a barrel based on natural gas as a feed stock. What people are hoping for today is to get CO₂ from the atmosphere and hydrogen from H₂O with electricity from solar, wind or nuclear. (Though w/ nuclear you might use thermochemical hydrogen if you can get the temperature up) The best use case for that I've seen is that the US Na…

Using methanol to make synthetic gasoline is just bonkers.

You can just use the methanol to run cars. CNG/CBG cars have existed for well over a decade.

Re: Mazda has tested a synthetic fuel in an unmodified MX5 on a 1000-mile road trip

#177

Post by theshrike79 » Mon, Jan 02, 2023, 9:29 PM UTC

dragonmost wrote: post #159

ianai wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is Mazda. They have yet to get serious about electrification. Worse than Toyota in that regard. I am beyond giving them the benefit of the doubt that this was anything but “hey we don’t have to make BeVs!!”

They've already announced 3 BEVs and 5 hybrids by 2025 so wouldn't say they aren't investing in EVs. Considering how bad the current batteries are for the environment and the limited supply of lithium I don't see why alternative fuels that leverage existing infrastructure is a bad thing. It remains to be seen but BEVs might not be the be-all end-all especially if you include vehicles where range and weight is importa…

Announcing isn't releasing.

Even Toyota's first attempt (bz4x) is laughable for a company with their engineering pedigree. First the wheels fell off so often they had to do a recall. Now they're saying that you can fast charge the car a maximum of two times per day, software limited.

If I was a tinfoil hat wearer, I'd say they're sabotaging themselves on purpose.

Re: Mazda has tested a synthetic fuel in an unmodified MX5 on a 1000-mile road trip

#178

Post by decafninja » Mon, Jan 02, 2023, 10:37 PM UTC

vfclists wrote: post #164

hasmanean wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We should not replace ICE cars with EVs, but something smaller. Steam engines were large because that was how they got efficiency up. ICE cars could afford to be smaller and more efficient. If they had just replaced steam locmotives with diesel ones that would have been stupid...instead they built a whole new infrastructure around smaller cars that was much better than the rail network and redesigned our entire citie…

Why should the store send a small robot to deliver it you? You can ride a bicycle to the store to pick it up. Just think of the cardiovascular benefits. And you know what? Think of the energy cost of the robot's manufacture, and the energy the delivery takes.

Because rain, snow, heat, lack of fitness, security, amongst other reasons.

Cycling is my most common mode of transportation these days. I love it. But I also know it's not going to be practical primary means of transport for a huge slice of the population. And the "danger from cars" ranks pretty low in my list of reasons.

Re: Mazda has tested a synthetic fuel in an unmodified MX5 on a 1000-mile road trip

#179

Post by danrl » Mon, Jan 02, 2023, 11:03 PM UTC

criley2 wrote: post #91

danrl wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just to add to this: You seem to be referring to the global picture. If we look at the US in isolation it is a different story. 30 yr low was ~4M barrels of crude oil from fields. We were at ~12M Barrels in 2022. It is true that no major field has been opened recently which I blame on the (legitimate) push against fossil fuels and the rising cost of capital for projects that won’t pay off until at least year 5-8 of a…

>Just to add to this: You seem to be referring to the global picture. If we look at the US in isolation it is a different story. 30 yr low was ~4M barrels of crude oil from fields. We were at ~12M Barrels in 2022. The oil market is a fully globalized commodity and there is no "American picture", there is just the global oil market. This is why OPEC can manipulate elections by changing the rate at which they produce o…

> The oil market is a fully globalized commodity and there is no "American picture"

I agree that this is the current state. However, this can quickly change at the whim of the US president and doesn't even need congressional approval. In fact, we have seen increasing request from within the US to decouple from the global market and hence have a "domestic" and a global oil price. I don't know how this would play out if it ever happens. But all the legal groundwork is there and the US president can impose an oil export ban at any time if he wishes to do so.

Examples of requests to do so (without success so far):

* https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/141...

* https://energycommerce.house.gov/sites/democrats.energycomme...

The saddest part is, that the US has great solar and wind potential but the least incentive for a mass transition given the opportunity to decouple from the global commodity market at any time (elections anyone?)

Re: Mazda has tested a synthetic fuel in an unmodified MX5 on a 1000-mile road trip

#180

Post by Kirby64 » Mon, Jan 02, 2023, 11:05 PM UTC

phpisthebest wrote: post #130

megaman821 wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is such a misrepresentation. It has nearly nothing to do with heat pumps, it because there is a large amount of electrical resistive heating used in Texas. Converting natural gas furnaces to heat pumps and replacing resistive heating with heat pumps, would not increase the total electricity usage at all. Last I looked 40% of heating in Texas was done through resistive heating, heat pumps would be 3-4x more effic…

I was not aware that Texas is in the midwest... I am not sure what Texas has to do with anything here. That said, no one isreplacing NatGas with Electric Resistive Heating, that would be crazy, NatGas is still cheaper in most cases for people north of say KY but there are alot of HeatPumps going in I am unclear why you think replacing a NatGas heater with a HeatPump "would not increase the total electricity usage at…

Not OP, but changing from natural gas heat sources to heat pump does increase your house electricity demand, but then that natural gas is no longer consumed. Natural gas is commonly used as the 'peaker' energy source today... so it's likely that you're just going to be burning natural gas at a plant somewhere else to power your heat pump in the peaky cold snap situation. Natural gas power plants are going to be more efficient than your furnace, unless you have one of the very modern furnaces, and the amount of gas needed to be burned and turned into electricity is going to be a ratio (3:1, 4:1...) lower than the natural gas needed to be burned to heat your house.

Overall that seems like a reduction in total emissions, since you're using less natural gas overall to heat the same amount. Yes, it increases power demand, but is also lessens demand on natural gas by a greater amount.

This could be a overall net negative if the power mix is heavily polluting (coal... etc), but largely we're moving away from that over time and it will only get better.