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Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

economist.com

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Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#171

Post by Izkata »

yucky wrote: post #125
phkahler wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> the monthly cost of housing hasn’t changed as a percentage of take home pay, That is by design. Banks figure your monthly payment as a percent of income. Then based on interest rates they figure out how much you can borrow. Then everyone - the sellers, the agents, even the bank - push you to borrow the max allowed and spend it. This is why lower interest rate cause higher house prices. Interest rates are going up.…

> Then everyone - the sellers, the agents, even the bank - push you to borrow the max allowed and spend it. You are not forced to spend above your ability to pay. People used to be ok with buying smaller homes, or in less hip neighborhoods. If you can afford a $500k house you can also afford a $350k house. People need to stop making excuses for living above their means.

> If you can afford a $500k house you can also afford a $350k house.

Those numbers seem insanely high to me. I would've thought people are looking for more like $100k.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#172

Post by oliwarner »

hdjjhhvvhga wrote: post #134
oliwarner wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Major economies are already in deepening recessions. Major producers are starting the year with significant impairment from COVID and supply line pressures. The threat of Russia's aggression affecting other countries remains. Energy prices are still obscene in Europe. I hope things get better, but I think you'd be mad to plan for global growth this year.

> The threat of Russia's aggression affecting other countries remains. Like what countries exactly? They can't even hold the ground they conquered in the previous months in Ukraine. Armenia already asked Russia's help and they refused - it was effectively a fatal blow to CSTO and has far-reaching consequences to the way Russia is perceived among its current and former allies.

Their hissy fits over fuel have driven inflation through the roof in most of Europe. Those same countries are sheltering Ukraine's refugees. More of the same threatens Europe's stability, pushes the EU closer to direct action.

And Russia has backed themselves into a corner, diplomatically. Not even the other CIS members have enthusiasm for Putin. So this idiot, who started this desperate for a legacy, only has a prison sentence for war crimes or a nuclear firework party in his future.

It is right to mock Russia's decisions, it's right to point out how pathetic their war has been, but it isn't right to claim they have no power to affect others near to them.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#173

Post by dragonwriter »

Izkata wrote: post #169
SantalBlush wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While this is true, the statement "We don't know that we're not in a recession" is not evidence that we're in a recession. Looking at the evidence that we do currently have--GDP, unemployment, etc.--that evidence strongly suggests that we are not in one.

The low unemployment rate indicates we're likely either in or about to start a recession. It generally doesn't spike until months after recessions begin: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

> The low unemployment rate indicates we’re likely either in or about to start a recession.

Sure, I mean, we might only be ~4 years from a recession (see 1966). It's true that, as recession is defined roughly as the period of decline from an economic peak, they usually start during a period of low unemployment, but that doesn't mean low unemployment signals being in a recession. Most low unemployment periods are outside of recessions.

> It generally doesn’t spike until months after recessions begin

Every recession shown on that chart either begins simultaneously with or after sustained unemployment increases, I don’t see any where it lags significantly.

There are several places where the low unemployment plateau before a recession is extended, and even a couple where an apparent low plateau is followed by another drop and another plateau.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#174

Post by chupasaurus »

hdjjhhvvhga wrote: post #134
oliwarner wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Major economies are already in deepening recessions. Major producers are starting the year with significant impairment from COVID and supply line pressures. The threat of Russia's aggression affecting other countries remains. Energy prices are still obscene in Europe. I hope things get better, but I think you'd be mad to plan for global growth this year.

> The threat of Russia's aggression affecting other countries remains. Like what countries exactly? They can't even hold the ground they conquered in the previous months in Ukraine. Armenia already asked Russia's help and they refused - it was effectively a fatal blow to CSTO and has far-reaching consequences to the way Russia is perceived among its current and former allies.

> Armenia already asked Russia's help and they refused

To fight on territory which isn't recognized as Armenian by everyone else. A reminder that Russian peacekeeping unit is at the Armenian-Karabakh border, not Karabakh-Azeri.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#175

Post by jshahahlsba »

throwawayoaky wrote: post #63
frankfrankfrank wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you should reconsider the position that inflation is a sign of a booming economy. It is an erroneous albeit common perception and perspective. Inflation, the fraud of increasing the number of IOU Currency tokens called {fill in your currency of choice} in circulation simply by copying them is the cause of increasing prices, not inflation itself. It’s a matter of misunderstood definition. An analogy is an arti…

found the goldbug. afaict inflation is great for indebted earners, bad for savers. Still waiting to learn why hoarding tokens is socially beneficial behavior that should be rewarded. Sorry you can't predict the future of your stuff just by putting it in a contract. But nobody promised you that, and there are bigger problems to solve than the perfect autonomy of your resources. I guess your only hope is that the limit…

> Still waiting to learn why hoarding tokens is socially beneficial behavior that should be rewarded.

As opposed to squandering it all as soon as it is earned on the proverbial avocado toasts and dying in ignominious penury?

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#176

Post by sokoloff »

phkahler wrote: post #120
midasuni wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As household wages have increased (especially with increasingly two full time professional incomes now, which was very rare 30 years ago) and internet rates have been low, the monthly cost of housing hasn’t changed as a percentage of take home py, it’s just you need two full time incomes to do it. This is the fundamental problem though, because there is a shortage of housing, as wages increases, housing costs (either…

>> the monthly cost of housing hasn’t changed as a percentage of take home pay, That is by design. Banks figure your monthly payment as a percent of income. Then based on interest rates they figure out how much you can borrow. Then everyone - the sellers, the agents, even the bank - push you to borrow the max allowed and spend it. This is why lower interest rate cause higher house prices. Interest rates are going up.…

> Then everyone - the sellers, the agents, even the bank - push you to borrow the max allowed and spend it.

Of course those groups urge you to spend the maximum: they're all being compensated if you do exactly that.

At the end of the day, it's still you who is signing the contracts, responsible for how you spend your money, and has to live with the outcome of your decisions.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#177

Post by the_only_law »

jshahahlsba wrote: post #175
throwawayoaky wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

found the goldbug. afaict inflation is great for indebted earners, bad for savers. Still waiting to learn why hoarding tokens is socially beneficial behavior that should be rewarded. Sorry you can't predict the future of your stuff just by putting it in a contract. But nobody promised you that, and there are bigger problems to solve than the perfect autonomy of your resources. I guess your only hope is that the limit…

> Still waiting to learn why hoarding tokens is socially beneficial behavior that should be rewarded. As opposed to squandering it all as soon as it is earned on the proverbial avocado toasts and dying in ignominious penury?

Oh look the 2 minute old account with building straw men.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#178

Post by leobg »

rafale wrote: post #46
jmartrican wrote: post #29

When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.

You know how journalists, for the sake of transparency, disclose holdings or interests when they cover a subject. There should be the reverse of that where they make a bet to show conviction in their beliefs. It would be a funny game. Most of them will bet $0.

This is a great idea!

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#179

Post by jshahahlsba »

the_only_law wrote: post #177
jshahahlsba wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Still waiting to learn why hoarding tokens is socially beneficial behavior that should be rewarded. As opposed to squandering it all as soon as it is earned on the proverbial avocado toasts and dying in ignominious penury?

Oh look the 2 minute old account with building straw men.

Sorry don’t want a permanent web identity for personal reasons.

> Still waiting to learn why hoarding tokens is socially beneficial behavior that should be rewarded.

Do I need to address this silly assertion with a more thoughtful comment than it deserves?

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#180

Post by Izkata »

dragonwriter wrote: post #173
Izkata wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The low unemployment rate indicates we're likely either in or about to start a recession. It generally doesn't spike until months after recessions begin: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

> The low unemployment rate indicates we’re likely either in or about to start a recession. Sure, I mean, we might only be ~4 years from a recession (see 1966). It's true that, as recession is defined roughly as the period of decline from an economic peak, they usually start during a period of low unemployment, but that doesn't mean low unemployment signals being in a recession. Most low unemployment periods are outs…

Take a look at the comment I was responding to, as well as some others on this page: It's a common misconception that the unemployment rate spikes (spikes, not fluctuates slightly higher) before recessions. It doesn't.
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