The post holiday gathering spike is rather obvious. Not just for COVID but for everything. We really should have test kits, and people should test BEFORE travel. A national level policy of full refunds if tested positive (for any illness / disease) could help prevent the needless spread of illness.
Diseases are inevitable. It's not all that useful to be testing for every random disease that comes up. Testing doesn't help. Lockdowns don't help. Even mRNA treatments don't help. You WILL get Covid. You WILL get the flu. And your immune system will get stronger as you get exposed. Covid used to be novel. Now it's endemic and mutates multiple times per year. It's looking more and more like Covid will be with us for…
However, once the disease is characterized, you have effective treatments and protocols for the most sick, and you have decent rates of vaccination and recent infection... needs shift.
The critical factor is {max hospital ICU capacity} + 1 more seriously ill person, and when you're dealing with exponential growth rates and a virgin population, that can be hit pretty easily.
The fact that we didn't (in most parts of the world, for most of the time) is a triumph of modern health policy.