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Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

economist.com

171–180 of 734 posts

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is he? I feel like everyone said this about Putin and now the narrative has changed and he's an unstable madman whose going to launch a nuke if he loses too badly in his war. Like many politicians, Xi is ruthlessly self-interested. His actions that allow him to consolidate power aren't necessarily in the best interests of China.

>> Is he? Yeah, Biden himself recently said that Putin is a rational actor who grossly miscalculated, because he was basically fed very bad and flawed intel. He may be blustering about nukes now, but the only way he would do that is if Ukraine turns the tables and invades Russia, or something similar.

No post body was provided.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China will invade Taiwan when the cost to do so is low enough and/or they are desperate. In other words, the probability of success is considerably higher today than it will be in the future (even if the probability of success today isn't great). Russia is a declining state relative to Ukraine & Europe, so Putin's odds of success in 2022 were considerably higher than they would be 10 years later. So if invading Ukrai…

Treating political and military leaders as rational entities is dangerous.

>> Treating political and military leaders as rational entities is dangerous.

I would think the opposite to be true.

How do you attempt to apply to game theory to a situation where the other party is completely irrational? It seems impossible to me.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#173
post #136
post #22

China already declared that it will use force in Taiwan if "possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted". From Chinese Anti-Secession Law: Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or t…

Chinese law should almost never be considered something that constrains the government, and especially not in grandiose cases like this. The government will do as it pleases, regardless of the law. That is more of a strong press release than a binding proposition. However, I am not arguing that China is not serious about retaking Taiwan. They are deathly serious.

"Chinese law" - an oxymoron ;)

They said they will retake Taiwan and they can and few will really care. So of course they will.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#174
To be perfectly honest, this is still within a 1000km radius circle that encompasses Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. That covers the majority of next-generation fabs that aren't Intel.

It's great to legally diversify these fabs, but it does very little to mitigate geopolitical issues that are brewing in and around the east china sea.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#175
post #13

Wondering if that means Raspberry Pi will be available again. Still no sign of stability in supply.

You can probably just ignore them as a concern at this point. Nobody is going to want to use them in new products. They might keep going as a educational novelty but the magic is gone as far as using them in commercial/industrial products.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#176
post #22

China already declared that it will use force in Taiwan if "possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted". From Chinese Anti-Secession Law: Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or t…

Nah, fuck it. We're allowed to commit to war too. Xi Jingping is a tyrannical insane dictator and his successor will be worse. He needs to be stood up to, and no one is in a better position to do that than the US.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#177
post #22

China already declared that it will use force in Taiwan if "possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted". From Chinese Anti-Secession Law: Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or t…

This kind of bluster is a mainstay of Chinese geopolitics. The law was intentionally written in an open-ended way so that the party always gets the final say on what "completely exhausted" should mean. It serves as a propaganda tool internally and a point of leverage externally -- the party never needs to actually act on the threat for it to serve a valuable purpose. With that being said, it's not that simple. Bluste…

> Taiwan's sovereign airspace

Well, only 13 countries recognize Taiwan as a sovereign country - such as the 10,000 people of the 21 square kilometer island Naura.

Also, Taiwan occupies Kinmen Island in the bay of Xiamen's harbor on the PRC mainland. The island is in the Xiamen harbor and is 10 km from the city of Xiamen. So any PRC planes flying around Xiamen are "violating Taiwan's sovereign airspace" (which almost no one recognizes as "sovereign" - one of the main parties on Taiwan acknowledges Taiwan and the mainland are all one country).

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#179
post #22

China already declared that it will use force in Taiwan if "possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted". From Chinese Anti-Secession Law: Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or t…

Does it make sense for PRC to blockade Taiwan and stop TMSC delivering/producing chips?

I guess only if PRC is embargoed (US Sanctions TMSC). Maybe next year.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-gives-reprieve-least-t...

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#180
post #13

Wondering if that means Raspberry Pi will be available again. Still no sign of stability in supply.

You can probably just ignore them as a concern at this point. Nobody is going to want to use them in new products. They might keep going as a educational novelty but the magic is gone as far as using them in commercial/industrial products.

What makes you say that? Plenty of commercial operations would use them if they could purchase them at scale
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