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Pessimism is a barrier to progress

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Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#171

Post by saltcured »

forgomonika wrote: post #162
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #46

This feels like a "terrorist/freedom-fighter" thing and so is effectively saying nothing. Like, Bill Gates accepts climate change is happening, that we should do something to avert the problems, and thinks that we can do that as a species. He thinks that renewables and EVs etc. will all help, but aren't enough and we should look for newer solutions. He has invested in multiple different solutions, presumably because…

> Bill Gates accepts climate change is happening, that we should do something to avert the problems, and thinks that we can do that as a species. He thinks that renewables and EVs etc. will all help, but aren't enough and we should look for newer solutions. He has invested in multiple different solutions, presumably because he thinks some will be needed but not all will work. > > So he's a pessimist, pessimist, optim…

I think that the difference in perspectives is seeing pessimism/optimism as just a mood valance. In a sense, it takes some pessimism to even perceive that problems exist. Purified optimism would see every kind of evidence as good and interesting and every possible outcome as rosy.

These are spectra, and neither extreme is "correct" and rooted in objective reality. Pessimism/optimism can be decoupled from other axes like ignorance/knowledge, acceptance/denial, awareness/delusion, etc. Assuming "climate change is happening" as fact, someone might exhibit climate change denial for any number of reasons. These are just illustrative sketches, not an effort to build some taxonomy of beliefs:

Ignorance: someone may be unable to comprehend the complicated climate system concepts, statistical concepts, nor noisy data.

Cynical pessimism: someone may believe it is happening and unavoidable, but they want to minimize their own inconvenience or discomfort prior to the end game.

Blind optimism: someone may just harbor a profound faith that things will work out in the end; to them, the people trying to address climate change seem like toxic pessimists who harbor delusions of grandeur!

Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#172

Post by ZeroGravitas »

wahnfrieden wrote: post #155
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, big oil has always opposed plastic recycling, because it reduces their sales of gas feedstock. They have always pushed "blaming the consumer for trash", and disparaged "producer responsibility" and "plastic recycling" (except in blaming the consumer for not recycling, but that's just a variant of blaming them for trash). It's weird to now see people pointing to the same organisations that opposed these things, an…

You have a lot of confidence to begin that wall of text with “No” https://www.npr.org/2020/03/31/822597631/plastic-wars-three-... etc, get informed you’re sorely missing what my point could be if you think it’s nihilism / hah fine to be wasteful, another spin on the individualist solution making I attacked in my comment

You're literally citing big oil executives:

> Despite this, three former top officials, who have never spoken publicly before, said the industry promoted recycling as a way to beat back a growing tide of antipathy toward plastic.

And in doing so they get to repeat their "plastic recycling doesn't work" rhetoric.

As soon as you force the producers to pay for disposal and let them figure out how best to do it, recycling suddenly, magically becomes the cheapest option.

https://www.wastedive.com/news/2021-state-extended-producer-...

Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#173

Post by pfdietz »

hbarka wrote: post #140
pfdietz wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pessimism can be quite useful. In particular, it helps prune off unhelpful branches of search trees, so you can focus on more promising ones. A very important part of solving problems is choosing the right problems. It doesn't help to be optimistic about something that's not going to work.

>It doesn't help to be optimistic about something that's not going to work. Thinking a priori that it’s not going to work, here we have the true definition of a pessimist.

The optimist keeps trying to do something even as the evidence piles up against it. He calls someone pointing this out a pessimist.

In general, for any action, there is already some means of judging whether it's a good one. Not a perfect means, but you can get some idea. And after trying things a bit, the evidence gets better. It's utterly vital to use negative information obtained in this exploration. Otherwise, you can go off into an institutional failure mode where resources are poured down a black hole just because that's what's been done before.

Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#174

Post by ohbleek »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #170
id wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't hate him for being rich, I simply want him to stop polluting excessively. It would help the climate and his message alike. And I don't buy that you can do your share by talking one way and doing the exact opposite privately. It's like being an animal rights advocate who (openly) tortures animals in their free time. Simply doesn't work that way, even if you save more animals than you torture.

There's probably many animal rights advocates that aren't hardcore vegan.

There are dozens of us!

I don’t have a problem with the dairy and egg products I use because I personally know the people that I get them from. I won’t purchase anything containing dairy and eggs. If someone prepares food for me containing them I may eat it to be polite but I wouldn’t eat meat. I also don’t have an issue with the honey I get from my friends hives. However, many of my activist friends and other people see all of these things as hypocrisy that perpetuate animal abuse. I still protest and we get along fine. Because to your point, there’s room for nuance.

Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#175

Post by blueprint »

Pretty sure optimism dominates the headlines because actual pessimism says things are way worse than people are willing to even realize. That's what makes someone pessimistic. "We've tried everything and a few more things and we confirmed that most people are actively trying to destroy themselves and there's a trend of increasing causes of destruction"

Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#176

Post by Bilal_io »

pfdietz wrote: post #173
hbarka wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It doesn't help to be optimistic about something that's not going to work. Thinking a priori that it’s not going to work, here we have the true definition of a pessimist.

The optimist keeps trying to do something even as the evidence piles up against it. He calls someone pointing this out a pessimist. In general, for any action, there is already some means of judging whether it's a good one. Not a perfect means, but you can get some idea. And after trying things a bit, the evidence gets better. It's utterly vital to use negative information obtained in this exploration. Otherwise, you…

> The optimist keeps trying to do something even as the evidence piles up against it. He calls someone pointing this out a pessimist.

If someone insists that something would work even when the evidence is clear that's borderline stupid. But let's look at pessimism and optimism in relation to something unknown. An optimist would continue trying even if they fail multiple times, they continue trying until they either succeed or find enough evidence that it won't work. While a pessimist won't even try once, or give up pretty early.

Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#177

Post by 8note »

id wrote: post #152
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, I still don't like Gates for various historical reasons. Even some of his climate stuff annoys me. But, it's highly likely that if you ranked the whole human race on how much they'd done to reduce climate change, he may well be at the top. So if it's about "doing his share" then he's probably doing okay. But regardless, I don't want people to stop flying, I want them to stop releasing fossil C02 in the air becaus…

I don't hate him for being rich, I simply want him to stop polluting excessively. It would help the climate and his message alike. And I don't buy that you can do your share by talking one way and doing the exact opposite privately. It's like being an animal rights advocate who (openly) tortures animals in their free time. Simply doesn't work that way, even if you save more animals than you torture.

If he releases 100 tons, then prevents the release of 10000000000 tons, I'd say he'll have done pretty well, even if he could have release only 50 tons.

He's not just talking about doing things, he's putting people to work doing things. To focus on his individual emissions is a premature optimization

Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#178

Post by deltree7 »

id wrote: post #104
deltree7 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the dumbest take on Climate Change and I can't believe the HN crowd falls for it. Thought Experiment: Say, Bill Gates (and other VIPs) is respected enough that he can convert 5 Skeptics out a 100 Climate Deniers. So, In order for the successful climate actions Bill Gates has to change the minds of say 10,000 leaders in various positions across the world. That means he effectively has to meet 200,000 people ac…

How is he going to "convince 200,000 people in 5 years" if he isn't even willing to fly first class instead of private? He obviously doesn't care, so he's not going to convince anyone.

Private saves times instead of First Class.

Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#179

Post by wahnfrieden »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #172
wahnfrieden wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have a lot of confidence to begin that wall of text with “No” https://www.npr.org/2020/03/31/822597631/plastic-wars-three-... etc, get informed you’re sorely missing what my point could be if you think it’s nihilism / hah fine to be wasteful, another spin on the individualist solution making I attacked in my comment

You're literally citing big oil executives: > Despite this, three former top officials, who have never spoken publicly before, said the industry promoted recycling as a way to beat back a growing tide of antipathy toward plastic. And in doing so they get to repeat their "plastic recycling doesn't work" rhetoric. As soon as you force the producers to pay for disposal and let them figure out how best to do it, recyclin…

You had a problem with me saying that big oil campaigned for recycling which is exactly what the article says

> Recycling, the former officials told NPR and Frontline, became a way to preempt the bans and sell more plastic

> "The feeling was the plastics industry was under fire, we got to do what it takes to take the heat off, because we want to continue to make plastic products," Thomas says.

Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#180

Post by worldsayshi »

sitkack wrote: post #69
worldsayshi wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm definitely on the left side of the political spectrum. But I am very frustrated by how leftism seems so often be so centred on critique (a negative trait) rather than building ideas/stuff. "Speaking truth to power" is not really working because power doesn't care. Organizing seldom leads anywhere because it's just interpreted as more of "speaking truth to power" through protest. More critique. If a power structur…

> But I am very frustrated by how leftism seems so often be so centred on critique (a negative trait) rather than building ideas/stuff. You realize that this is rhetorical scam to prevent the questioning of action and the suppression of dissent? The left has plenty of good ideas on how to constructively corral the greed and stupidity of the right. And no unions are not out of fashion.

I want to make something that tries to solve the problem. I want to be part of a movement of creators that create the solution. I don't want to discourage protest but I don't really believe in it as a method for solving the big problems we are having. There are times for protest but protests aren't providing a solution that people believe or care about. That solution needs to be created first. (To be clear: I'm not talking about "Protest against autocrats" I'm specifically talking about "Protest against our unsustainable society".)

Revolutions of the past (or against autocrats) succeed because they presented a solution that people genuinely believed in and want. If degrowth is to convince anyone outside a small niche it needs to be reframed/restructured/remade into a vision that people want. Not a solution that people are guilt-tripped into while believing they have to give up every comfort while others can still keep doing what they do.

I think there are seeds of this vision scattered about here and there. But it needs to be turned into a robust ideology that can stand the scrutiny of social media 2022+.

And in this lies the problem that ideology is kind of dead. Or it needs to get some kind of rebirth. Social media eat modernist ideologies for breakfast and poops out a mess that people so far has only been able to build messy populism or very niche movements from.

So we might need a way to go past modernist ideology. Maybe we need to reinvent democracy. The closest idea I have found so far is the idea of the "Third Attractor" - Creating collectivist truth through some kind of well thought out method for structured discourse, negotiation and decision making. Making something that scales here seems to me like one of the defining issues of our time.

I'm probably still naive about what seeds are out there though because there is just sooo much. And I'm just a software engineer so what the hell do I know. But I don't see anyone else connecting the dots enough to create something that people in general can agree on so I suppose I can allow myself to speculate.

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