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One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

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Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course, I stand corrected about that. So, aside from irreversibility of transactions, what is preventing adoption?

I don't have time to thoroughly research the topic and come back to you, so maybe you can do some leg work. But I do know people over estimate what can be accomplished in a year and underestimate what can be accomplished in 10.

also correlation doesn't equal causation, the Overton window, etc

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#172
post #120

The policy only ever made a little sense. What El Salvador desperately wants is a currency it can inflate to pay for the stuff it can not afford. In this regard, it is no different than any other country. What it had was a currency it does not print (US dollar) and for which there is an ongoing international shortage. What El Salvador got with Bitcoin was yet another currency it does not print and for which there is…

Is sending Bitcoin really any cheaper than using something like Western Union? More convenient maybe.. but also more dangerous

Yes

About 1.50 USD bitcoin fee transfer[1][2], no fees for deposits or withdrawals on FTX for both BTC and USD (for > 0.01BTC, around 200 USD)[3]. And 0.07% taker, 0.02% maker fees for trades [4]

[1] https://ycharts.com/indicators/bitcoin_average_transaction_f...

[2] Could be avoided or greatly reduced if using other cheaper cryptos

[3] https://help.ftx.com/hc/en-us/articles/360034865571-Blockcha...

[4] https://help.ftx.com/hc/en-us/articles/360024479432-Fees

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#173
post #11

It's not a failure because Bitcoin tanked (relatively), it's a failure because Bitcoin tanking was and will always be a significant risk. People who got rich from Bitcoin weren't savvy, they won the lottery. It's not a sound investment decision based on outcome. Investments are sound based on probability and risk beforehand. El Salvador gambled which is stupid. Whether they won or lost at the lottery is inconsequenti…

The bet being made by El Salvador is to get the immense benefits of being an early adopter at the cost of short term volatility and risk of bitcoin failing.

Regardless of your opinion on this, you have to at least wait till the proposition plays out before passing judgement. You have to see if they can withstand the short term volatility and whether bitcoin succeeds or not.

Calling the experiment failure before the results is silly to say the least.

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I cannot think of a single individual item that I buy at the grocery store that has doubled, let alone more than doubled.

IIRC the giant flats of Costco eggs went up to 3-4x their former price over the last year or so. Still a great deal, they're just not "holy shit that's practically free!" like before.

Weird. Eggs by the dozen (along with onions, one of the most volatile staples at the grocery store) are up only like 75% for me. Admittedly that's a lot and more than I had expected when I went and checked but I'm still seeing very different numbers.

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#175

I want to wake up one day and cryptocurrency and anything related to it just doesn’t exist. Man that’d be a great day. Remove grifters, acquire actual progress.

Ya, back to where globalist bankster elites control every aspect of our lives. Ah, the good old days... ;)

so by bankster elites which ethnic group are you referring to? are these people more "elite" than Bay Area YIMBY elites?

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#176
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen the dollar’s buying power recently? I went from living very comfortably to living paycheck-to-paycheck in about 6 months. Holding my value in USD has become a significant risk.

> Have you seen the dollar’s buying power recently? Yeah, its up like 100% over Bitcoin and like +30% over Euro, Yen, and GBP? In fact, holding Cash/USD has been basically one of the best performing things in my entire portfolio this year (after oil/energy) Have _you_ seen BTC's buying power recently?

USD is not up. Everything is down. Have you been to a store recently?

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#177
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My best guess at why the average person is hesitant to use bitcoin as a primary currency is: where do I go when it goes wrong? If the system holding my money is hacked, or I get scammed in some way, where is my legal recourse? Legal recourse is typically something provided by a state. But state regulation nullifies a lot of what bitcoin advocates claim is the advantage of cryptocurrency. I'm not up to scratch on the…

That's not the whole story. When Bitcoin started it was used more as a currency than it is now. Firstly by evangelists who tried to establish a BTC economy, and secondly in the illicit economy. Bitcoin miners and devs took the project in a specific direction a few years later, optimizing it for use as digital gold, while making it much harder and more expensive to use as a currency.

> That's not the whole story. When Bitcoin started it was used more as a currency than it is now.

I still reflexively think of bitcoin primarily as the way you buy abstract board games from Spanish libertarians, because of https://nestorgames.com/

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#178
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quite literally what happened. My groceries cost over twice as much.

I cannot think of a single individual item that I buy at the grocery store that has doubled, let alone more than doubled.

Cereal and butter. A box of cereal is $7+ now, whereas it was $4 not long ago. A pack of butter was $2.50 and now close to $5.

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it stays the same if you have an investment portfolio and only invest max 5% in high risk assets. Assume you invest 1% of your portfolio in Bitcoin. What is your downside? 1%. Not that high, is it? What is your upside? Maybe x100, so double your entire portfolio. Right now, you came late to the game, so don't expect a x100. The risk is probably still the same, but the upside way lower. But when Bitcoin was still y…

If we think like this why wouldn't I invest 1% of my portfolio in lottery tickets? At worst lose 1%, at best x1,000,000 upside?

You could consider lottery tickets as an OTM option expiring in a week with those payoffs, I suppose. If you spread 1% of your portfolio over a year and buy lottery tickets every week, you're effectively losing 1% per year with a very small chance of becoming very rich.

There are probably better places to put your 1% on. ;-)

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#180
post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Have you seen the dollar’s buying power recently? Yeah, its up like 100% over Bitcoin and like +30% over Euro, Yen, and GBP? In fact, holding Cash/USD has been basically one of the best performing things in my entire portfolio this year (after oil/energy) Have _you_ seen BTC's buying power recently?

USD is not up . Everything is down. Have you been to a store recently?

USD is hugely up vs Yen and Euro. You buy anything from overseas recently? USD is hugely strong. USD is up vs the stock market, vs the bond market, vs the overseas bond market, vs overseas stocks.

USD is also up vs Bitcoin.

EDIT: Feel free to look at gold, silver, and other 'inflation hedges' while you're at it. The main thing going up is commodities (oil and food), which is certainly important. But there's more to the world than those two things.

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