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Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

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171–180 of 244 posts

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#171
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yeah that's basically describing broadcast tv & radio

None of those are AI-generated (therefore don't have the potential massive automated scale) or auto-play.

Being only semi-serious, but: wouldn't an auto-generated Netflix look pretty much like Netflix?

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#172

The Three Trends (according to the article): 1. Medium: text -> images -> video -> 3D graphics -> VR 2. AI: time -> rank -> recommend -> generate 3. UI: click -> scroll -> tap -> swipe -> autoplay By this definition, the end of the line is a totally passive consumption of endorphin-inducing pablum that blots out the real world. (I may be exaggerating a touch.) It might stop short of a wire into the pleasure centers o…

Yes this is the end game. We have pleasure and pain centers. An app that delivers a steady stream of pleasure, with no pain, will win for most people.

And the ratio keeps getting “better”. Better content, less friction.

Scary.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#173
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The payout is always less than the take, but the parent is correct. In most areas (of the US at least) casino slot machines are pretty tightly regulated to have to pay out a certain percentage of the take. To give an example, slot machines in Nevada must pay out a minimum of 75% of the take. Additionally, no programming/odds updates or machine resets may be made to the slot machine until the machine has sat idle for…

The 75% isn't calculated per player or per session. It's the theoretical minimum payout over the long run. Basically it's just code that does win = rand()

Why does the GP's comment strike you as implying that the minimum is calculated per person or session?

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#174

You have to dig through this entire article to get to the punchline, but here it is: > "These AI challenges, I would add, apply to monetization as well: one of the outcomes of Apple’s App Tracking Transparency changes is that advertising needs to shift from a deterministic model to a probabilistic one; the companies with the most data and the greatest amount of computing resources are going to make that shift more qu…

Your summary of this phenomenon resonates with my experiences navigating the internet all these years. I find reddit to be the most perfect example of watching something authentic, human, and real... devolve into a manufactured, astroturfed facsimile of a forum community. Years ago, reddit was filled with interesting discussions and analysis. Beautiful debates would rage on /r/news about current events, with equal sh…

Spot-on analysis. These days, I use sheer volume of personal, human-generated content as a filter: I visit a blog, and if there is a history of quality posts, I know I can at least trust that this opinion is genuine and human. That's not to say it's correct... but at least I won't feel manipulated any more than if any friend recommended a crappy product, TV show, or movie to me. Spam redditor accounts are relatively easy to screen based on history -- real people have varied comment histories with passionate comments based on their thoughts and feelings. Spam accounts do not.

With stuff like GPT-3 and DALL-E, I'm not sure how much longer this metric will suffice. But I don't think impermanent, semi-synchronous mediums like discord will fill the gap for me. Nor will web3, which, as far as I can tell, is simply a pile of increasingly abstreuse ponzi schemes.

I continue to hope for a decentralized blog + RSS solution. It's as simple as growing the community with existing standards, after all.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#175
post #121
post #92

The problem is current AI generation contain no creativity, they are trained from human made data set. And machine generated data set is also learnt from human data

I would argue that human creativity is also recombination of existing images/thoughts/experiences. There is no ghost in the machine who comes up with novel ideas that didn't exist before. Everything new is just a combination of old ideas combined in new ways.

That's a bleak view of humanity. I think there's a "spark" in actual humans, who will take content in a completely different direction than something ever seen before. Think Time Cube (https://timecube.2enp.com/). Or Neil Breen movies. I just don't think an AI could ever put together something quite like that.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#176
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The payout is always less than the take, but the parent is correct. In most areas (of the US at least) casino slot machines are pretty tightly regulated to have to pay out a certain percentage of the take. To give an example, slot machines in Nevada must pay out a minimum of 75% of the take. Additionally, no programming/odds updates or machine resets may be made to the slot machine until the machine has sat idle for…

The 75% isn't calculated per player or per session. It's the theoretical minimum payout over the long run. Basically it's just code that does win = rand()

No, that's an oversimplification.

The takeout is configurable. With older machines they have to be manually set at the machines, but with more modern machines it is controlled by a server. The period of time while the takeout remains unchanged is referred to as a cycle. Casinos are generally free to change the takeout so long as it is a minimum of the regulated amount. Then there are the regulations requiring idle time at the machines like I mentioned in my previous comment. Additionally, the casino may need to notify the gaming commission prior to making a takeout change depending on local regulations.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#177
post #148

The Three Trends (according to the article): 1. Medium: text -> images -> video -> 3D graphics -> VR 2. AI: time -> rank -> recommend -> generate 3. UI: click -> scroll -> tap -> swipe -> autoplay By this definition, the end of the line is a totally passive consumption of endorphin-inducing pablum that blots out the real world. (I may be exaggerating a touch.) It might stop short of a wire into the pleasure centers o…

"Medium" and "AI" are spot-on IMO, but the "UI" track seems suspect to me. "Click" and "Tap" are essentially the same thing (on a desktop vs. on a mobile device): the user actively selecting what content to view next. So are "scroll" and "autoplay" (for text/image and video content, respectively). In the former, the user has agency over what to view, and in the latter, the transition is automated. I'm very skeptical…

> "Click" and "Tap" are essentially the same thing

Click in the article refers to plain old web navigation. There are links on the page, you move the mouse around and click on whichever one you want.

Tap is referring to "Stories" interaction, which is more narrowed and less user choice than click. A story is playing, you tap anywhere on the screen and the next story replaces it and begins playing.

I actually think "tap" and "swipe" are basically the same? They are both just a "give me the next one please" interaction. But the rest do progress from more user-directed to more computer-controlled.

(Click -> scroll -> tap -> swipe -> autoplay)

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#178
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 75% isn't calculated per player or per session. It's the theoretical minimum payout over the long run. Basically it's just code that does win = rand()

Why does the GP's comment strike you as implying that the minimum is calculated per person or session?

Yeah, I was a bit confused why they thought that is what I was implying. I was just trying to explain high level how it works. I previously worked on a couple of online "slot machines" and several of my former colleagues write software now for WMS on physical machines.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#179

The Three Trends (according to the article): 1. Medium: text -> images -> video -> 3D graphics -> VR 2. AI: time -> rank -> recommend -> generate 3. UI: click -> scroll -> tap -> swipe -> autoplay By this definition, the end of the line is a totally passive consumption of endorphin-inducing pablum that blots out the real world. (I may be exaggerating a touch.) It might stop short of a wire into the pleasure centers o…

> Makes me wonder if there's a market for the equivalent of health food where we go back to social media and deliberately avoid "recommendation media" (which may be the most important two words in the entire post).

I think there's definitely a product in there for people who want a tool to help manage their attention, one they can intentionally shape.

But that product cannot be primarily ad-supported, since the fundamental purpose of ad-supported tech is to command (and sell) attention. Users would need to be customers, not the product, which means they would need to be willing to pay. And since attention is power, anyone producing this would either have to be past motivation for more power, or principled about not abusing the potential in abusing an attention management tool.

I'm sure the userbase and builders who can make this happen exist, but they are smaller. The incentives against it are powerful currents. Most of us will choose the opaque cost of selling our attention and behavioral trail over the transparent cost of our currency. Most of us are not past motivation for more power.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#180

The Three Trends (according to the article): 1. Medium: text -> images -> video -> 3D graphics -> VR 2. AI: time -> rank -> recommend -> generate 3. UI: click -> scroll -> tap -> swipe -> autoplay By this definition, the end of the line is a totally passive consumption of endorphin-inducing pablum that blots out the real world. (I may be exaggerating a touch.) It might stop short of a wire into the pleasure centers o…

This reminds me of the evolution of the slot machine (as read in Matthew Crawford's The World Beyond Your Head ). A rough analog would be: 1. Medium: Mechanical reel > Digital reel 2. Gameplay: Fixed odds > Adjustable odds > Programmatic adaptive odds 3. Experience: Pull the lever and win or lose > Pull the lever and win even if you lose (e.g. get back change) > Swipe a card and win even if you lose > Swipe a card an…

A related academic work is “Addiction by Design: Machine Gambling in Las Vegas” by Natasha Schull.
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