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Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

nature.com

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Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#171

Post by lamontcg »

IG_Semmelweiss wrote: post #16

If you ever wonder what el nino /la nina means in terms of weather for your hemisphere, here is a heuristic: La niña is the opposite of el Niño. El niño (spanish - "the boy") is the name used by inhabitants of the area it hits the hardest, South America (mostly spanish speaking). The western part of South America has its usual rainy season from late Dec to April. The "el nino" boy is a reference to birth of Jesus. Ch…

This description is entirely missing its effects on eastern areas like the Philippines and Indonesia and the monsoon season in India, and cyclone formation over both the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Also misses the physical explanation as to if winds over the equatorial Pacific ocean are causing the water to turn over or not (and the associated pool of cool upwelling water off the coast of central/south America in normal / La Nina years).

Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#172

Post by lamontcg »

stareatgoats wrote: post #120

Climate science is in its infancy. No I'm not a "climate denier": we can can be reasonably confident that the science is correct in asserting that we are in a period of climate warming, caused in large part by increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere, to the most part caused by the accelerated burning of fossile fuels. But the predictive powers of climate science is low, which this article (among others) illustrates. W…

> we need to get away from the thinking that there is a "natural climate" that we can revert to.

Very hard disagree. This is about all that matters. We've turned up the bunson burner heating up the Earth. What we don't know is _precisely_ how the entire climate system will respond to it, but it is a pretty good guess that if we leave it long enough and keep cranking it up that it'll eventually get really bad. We already see the weakening of the temperature gradient between the arctic and lower latitudes and the weakening of the jet stream and the formation of atmospheric blocking that is creating both large and persistent record heat spells in the northern hemisphere summer and cold snaps in the NH winter. We need to stop making that worse and rolling the dice to see how bad it'll get (which is a dictionary-definition _Conservative_ viewpoint).

Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#173

Post by lamontcg »

superkuh wrote: post #82

I can't help but wonder if the the southern hemisphere Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano eruption ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hunga_Tonga%E2%80%93Hunga... ) contributed a little to the nothern hemisphere weirdness like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_eruption_of_Mount_Pinatub...

Pinatubo threw 37 times more SO2 into the atmosphere.

Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#174

Post by DougMellon »

moneycantbuy wrote: post #105
DougMellon wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I currently live just outside of Rocky Mountain National Park and I am not feeling optimistic about the future.

What particularly about Colorado makes you feel not optimistic?

Fires

Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#175

Post by stareatgoats »

lamontcg wrote: post #172
stareatgoats wrote: post #120

Climate science is in its infancy. No I'm not a "climate denier": we can can be reasonably confident that the science is correct in asserting that we are in a period of climate warming, caused in large part by increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere, to the most part caused by the accelerated burning of fossile fuels. But the predictive powers of climate science is low, which this article (among others) illustrates. W…

> we need to get away from the thinking that there is a "natural climate" that we can revert to. Very hard disagree. This is about all that matters. We've turned up the bunson burner heating up the Earth. What we don't know is _precisely_ how the entire climate system will respond to it, but it is a pretty good guess that if we leave it long enough and keep cranking it up that it'll eventually get really bad. We alre…

> We need to stop making that worse

I think it should be clear that we agree on that. My gripe is with the notion that we might be able to turn back the clock to some sort of pristine natural state - and keep it at that.

We can't and we won't. There is no such pristine natural climate "balance". We have enjoyed a few millennia of climate that has been exceptionally conducive to our present way of life (based on crops and livestock) - during which our species has prospered. This as been an anomaly in terms of geological ages, and instead of putting our efforts into calling names and casting blame for the current predicament we should concentrate on how to continue surviving under new and probably harsh conditions. That's all.

Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#176

Post by stareatgoats »

ASalazarMX wrote: post #164
stareatgoats wrote: post #120

Climate science is in its infancy. No I'm not a "climate denier": we can can be reasonably confident that the science is correct in asserting that we are in a period of climate warming, caused in large part by increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere, to the most part caused by the accelerated burning of fossile fuels. But the predictive powers of climate science is low, which this article (among others) illustrates. W…

It's not reverting to a natural climate, it's trying to not make it worse by pumping even more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The adaptation we have to make is finding a way to keep most of our comforts in a sustainable way, and that won't come from recycling plastic or driving an EV, but from industry and regulation.

> from industry and regulation

I agree. These tools should make our crash landing softer than a laissez faire policy. But

1. I'm pessimistic about the true intent of the powers that be. While paying lip service to climate action there is hardly any real action: renewables are just an extra energy source on top of the existing cheap fossil fuels that give nations some independence vs the gulf states. There is a scramble for every newly discovered oilfield - and it's not because they want to prevent the extraction. And

2. If governments succeed against all odds in phasing out fossil fuels we would still be faced with massive climate change sooner or later - be it a new ice age or whatever. These are things that are out of our control - we need to make sure we can adapt, not try to control it.

Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#177

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

lovich wrote: post #167
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. "the area" is not homogenous. the northern parts of AZ and NM (even CA) to some extent are climactically and geologically quite unlike the southern parts. 2. humans have lived in the area for thousands of years. Yes, it doesn't fit into a northern European notion of "the kind of place humans should live", but it fits entirely into the southern European, north African and Arabic culture and living patterns. These c…

> “the area" is not homogenous. the northern parts of AZ and NM (even CA) to some extent are climactically and geologically quite unlike the southern parts Well then it sounds like they have a local solution to the issue and don’t need to bother us > humans have lived in the area for thousands of years. And then humans changed the environment. > it's not unlivable If it’s not unliveable then they should be able to su…

What are you talking about?

Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#178

Post by smt88 »

bagels wrote: post #102
smt88 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Plus the government is led by people who refer to much of the southwest as “fly over country” doesn’t help. The people who (you assume) don't use the term "flyover country" are the people stopping Congress from spending money to fix environmental crises like drought. Even so, the White House has ordered studies and gotten Congress to spend a lot of money on the Southwest already[1]. What else are you looking for, e…

Desalinization plants built by California or the Federal Government.

I still don't think I understand how that helps Midwestern and Southwestern states other than California, unless you mean the goal is to give California a way to stop using as much.

Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#179

Post by bogomipz »

lovich wrote: post #166
bogomipz wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You didn't actually answer my question. It sounds like you might be confused on what eminent domain is. Eminent domain provides the Federal government with the power to take private property and convert it into public use. There is no single piece of land here. This is not only not land it's literally water that flows across the land. Further it's not private property. The Colorado River basin covers 250,000 square i…

Then eminent domain multiple pieces of land. You’re ignoring that they have the power to do so, they just don’t have the will. We have built mega projects before and taken land for it. This would be no different

I'm not ignoring anything. Eminent domain is not at all applicable here. You seem to be ignoring that eminent domain applies to private land in order to make it available for public use. The land involved is already public, it belongs to the states. Honestly you really don't seem to have much of any meaningful argument or explanation other than repeatedly using the phrase "eminent domain" incorrectly.

Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#180

Post by lovich »

bogomipz wrote: post #179
lovich wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then eminent domain multiple pieces of land. You’re ignoring that they have the power to do so, they just don’t have the will. We have built mega projects before and taken land for it. This would be no different

I'm not ignoring anything. Eminent domain is not at all applicable here. You seem to be ignoring that eminent domain applies to private land in order to make it available for public use. The land involved is already public, it belongs to the states. Honestly you really don't seem to have much of any meaningful argument or explanation other than repeatedly using the phrase "eminent domain" incorrectly.

That is incorrect. The federal government can exercise eminent domain against the states, and that is not an old idea. I found it last referenced in a 2021 opinion authored by Roberts[1]

The pertinent text is

>Early cases also reflected the understanding that state property was not immune from the exercise of delegated federal eminent domain power. See Stockton v. Baltimore & N. Y. R. Co., 32 F. 9 (Bradley, Cir. J.). The contrary position—that a federal delegatee could not condemn a State’s land without the State’s consent—would give rise to the “dilemma of requiring the consent of the state” in virtually every infrastructure project authorized by the Federal Government.

It literally calls out that major infrastructure projects would not have been feasible without this power

[1]https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/19-1039

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