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Apple M2 Die Shot and Architecture Analysis – Big Cost Increase and A15 Based IP

semianalysis.substack.com

171–180 of 206 posts

Re: Apple M2 Die Shot and Architecture Analysis – Big Cost Increase and A15 Based IP

#171
post #161
post #44

Thanks to being based on their phone chips Apple came out of the gate with the M1 and cleaned everyone’s clock on performance-per-watt while putting in good to great numbers in general (as a CPU). But their rate of improvement on the A series has been slowing on general tasks. They’re on the same process node, and only increased frequency a bit. Is it really that surprising that performance didn’t take a massive jump…

AMD, releases CPUs every 2 years, so it's still impressive that in just 1 year Apple can have these gains.

Apple announced M1 in November 2020 and the new MacBook Air M2 isn’t currently available to order in June 2022. It’s not accurate to say M-series iterations are annual.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_silicon

Re: Apple M2 Die Shot and Architecture Analysis – Big Cost Increase and A15 Based IP

#172
post #90
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The author has been pushing this conjecture for a year over the past year or so, and has been repeatedly called out on the Hardware reddit. I would recommend not taking their business conjecture without a giant pinch of salt. Just today they were claiming Apple has lost hundreds of engineers in the chip division. The idea that a single division somehow lost hundreds without the industry noticing is ridiculous.

I agree, reading this it just seems like this author has found a market for people who want read news about how AAPL is going to drop tomorrow

I remember reading ESR's blog a decade (or more) ago where every single technical advancement was going to lead to Apple's doom. Every new competitor that popped up was going to lead to Apple's doom. Every legislative initiative was going to lead to Apple's doom. After awhile, I stopped reading his blog because despite a lot of good insight in some areas, his cheerleading for Apple's Doom had clearly created too much bias in his judgement for me to take anything he said seriously.

Apple will eventually be overtaken by another company at some point, but there's a world of journalists and pundits who continue to cry wolf every day.

Re: Apple M2 Die Shot and Architecture Analysis – Big Cost Increase and A15 Based IP

#173
post #162
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Intel got criticized for minor improvements year after year. It's important to look at these on 5+ year timescales, since the improvements aren't evenly spread out. Especially since gains often depend on manufacturing process improvements.

2015 Sky Lake i5-6600K single core 1092 [1] 2017 Kaby Lake i5-7600k single core 1157 [2] 2017 Coffee Lake i5-8600k single core 1206 [3] 2018 Coffee Lake i5-9600k single core 1233 [4] 2020 Comet Lake i5-10600k single core 1307 [5] 16% improvement over 5 years, average 4.6% improvement per release, range from 2.2% to 6% per step. didn't realize that they released 2 Coffee Lakes. [1] https://browser.geekbench.com/proces…

Those are all Skylake CPUs with very minor tweaks. The biggest change being clock frequencies steadily increasing due to 14 nm evolving into the ultra-mature 14+++ nm process.

Re: Apple M2 Die Shot and Architecture Analysis – Big Cost Increase and A15 Based IP

#174
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The assholery part here is not about who keeps the change. It’s about telling a gas station boy “that’s how you got rich”. What makes you rich is first of all being born rich, which most rich people tend to ignore. On the few cases were we are really talking about people with humble beginnings, it’s all about making your time count. If the guy was really rich, the time it would take the boy to get inside, take 2 doll…

The majority of wealthy Americans were not born rich. Almost half of Americans own stock and a significant portion of retired Americans are millionaires.

A retired American with a $1M+ in their retirement account but who needs to stretch that over 20+ years isn’t what I’d consider rich.

Re: Apple M2 Die Shot and Architecture Analysis – Big Cost Increase and A15 Based IP

#175
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worked in the service industry in UK for a few months for the richest and most privileged people out there. I got the chance to work in events where members of the royal family were present or events where the most famous and rich people in the world were the guests. My observation is, the assholes are everywhere but also the nice and polite people. I can't really generalize it for rich or poor, I did not see that…

> I can't really generalize it for rich or poor, I did not see that simple pattern. My SO works as a consultant in a bank here in Rome, Italy. She moved from a bank in the periphery to a very central one in the Parioli neighborhood. There was a night and day difference between her old and new clients in wealth (with the Parioli ones being largely millionaires). Old clients would treat her with the utmost respect and…

some banks waive fees for non profits

your bank did not

one of my biggest pet peeves is how low-level employees cant tell that their organization isn’t doing the normal thing

Re: Apple M2 Die Shot and Architecture Analysis – Big Cost Increase and A15 Based IP

#176
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I can't really generalize it for rich or poor, I did not see that simple pattern. My SO works as a consultant in a bank here in Rome, Italy. She moved from a bank in the periphery to a very central one in the Parioli neighborhood. There was a night and day difference between her old and new clients in wealth (with the Parioli ones being largely millionaires). Old clients would treat her with the utmost respect and…

When working with money, the rich are also more likely to hit the countless rules and limitations the banking regulations impose on us "for our own good". Just like as a programmer I am going mental when encountering absurd and ineffective account password rules lets say (one special char, one upper case, one non-letter, etc) while a lay person would just sigh and comply.

exactly, on the other side of this, the rich person should have learned how to get better banking service that doesn't encumber them with these fund movement limitations

most “anti money laundering” or “security” stuff is actually just that one bank’s poor and inaccurate implementation of a law. most of it is just company policy and nothing related to the law.

with electronic funds, the entire banking system relies on assuming that the prior and next bank has already done the checks necessary

because the law only creates a firewall of reporting at the deposit and withdrawal of physical notes (its same across europe, across us, and elsewhere)

Re: Apple M2 Die Shot and Architecture Analysis – Big Cost Increase and A15 Based IP

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My dad used to tell a story when as a kid he worked at a gas station. Guy shows up with a Ferrari, asks for a full tank, pays with a large note and my dad asks him to keep the change. The guy replied - boy, I got a lot of money Really, a lot. You know how I got them? I never gave anything away for free. Hand that change over.

If someone asked to keep my change I would say no too. Why the fsck? Is it normal to beg during work where you’re from?

> Is it normal to beg during work where you’re from?

Yes - but they call it tipping 'round these parts. They even have prominently displayed tip jars and everything.

Re: Apple M2 Die Shot and Architecture Analysis – Big Cost Increase and A15 Based IP

#178
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The assholery part here is not about who keeps the change. It’s about telling a gas station boy “that’s how you got rich”. What makes you rich is first of all being born rich, which most rich people tend to ignore. On the few cases were we are really talking about people with humble beginnings, it’s all about making your time count. If the guy was really rich, the time it would take the boy to get inside, take 2 doll…

https://www.ramseysolutions.com/retirement/how-many-milliona... https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/26/majority-of-the-worlds-riche...

Think the problem here is that family members of living rich people aren't considered "rich people" themselves, but may still have the ability to spend it.

Re: Apple M2 Die Shot and Architecture Analysis – Big Cost Increase and A15 Based IP

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would compensation be the decisive factor for top talent in a highly compensated field? They have probably already made enough money that they don't have to work for living, and they are probably genuinely interested in their work because they made it to the top. Apple processors are already in the market, so the most interesting work is done, and it may be time to start looking for new challenges.

Spending goes up with compensation in general. Then it becomes the norm and you don't want to lose it. Sure you can retire but probably not at a level where you can fly first class everywhere, stay in five star hotels and stay on private islands. That aside once people have kids the sky is the limit for giving them the "best life possible." Nanny, private tutors, private schools (and/or a house in Cupertino since it'…

Private schools aren't the norm in the Bay Area, they just fund their local public schools more and then keep out anyone they don't like via NIMBYism.

They're more normal in SF because of the school lottery system which can assign you to a school whether or not you can actually get there on time every day.

Re: Apple M2 Die Shot and Architecture Analysis – Big Cost Increase and A15 Based IP

#180
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a gross exaggeration of the situation. California has a total ban on non-competes. A very small handful of other states put restrictions on non-competes, but even those generally allow non-competition agreements if time limited, and the employee makes over ~$100k. It’s widely accepted that prohibiting non-competes has been a significant factor in the tech industry success in California. As one example, it is…

Non-competes without a monetary attachment are hard to enforce from the employer side. Judges don't look kindly to preventing someone from making a living. Of course companies hope the threat of going to court makes people back down - like Amazon who is known bully in this area. But yes, I wish all states would just ban them outright. Or at least make them require compensation. If an employee is important enough to r…

There are no non-competes of any kind in California, at all, ever.
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