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I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

beanlog.vercel.app

171–180 of 512 posts

Re: I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

#171
post #32

The venn diagram of internet users that read about super specific financial products, decide to buy them, while not even understanding the need to keep an emergency fund such that a move like this leaves them with under $200 in their account seems to be growing. It seems to be a weird mix of wall street cosplay and financial ineptitude.

A Venn diagram is just a graphical representation of sets. You're thinking of an intersection (of sets).

Re: I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

#173
post #22

> They're zero-risk bonds... To qualify this, there is zero risk that the technical letter of the agreement won't be honoured. Lending money to the US government is very high risk right now. Simple person metrics like debt to GDP indicate they're currently fighting a bigger war than WWII, and the trend-line says they are losing. If you lend the US government enough money to buy a sandwich there is a real risk that at…

Lending USD to USG is zero additional risk. If one wants to hedge against the risks you mention, then one has to invest in non-USG, or even non-US, assets. But for everyone living in the US, USD will continue to be quite relevant. And given the low purchase limits on series I bonds, they will only ever form a portion of someone's assets.

Re: I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

#174
post #76

I thought this was funny. Weird comments in the thread about how he/she should have known better. Author is not making a complaint to demand internet outrage. There is no inflammatory justice warrior content here. Sheesh! Author admits they screwed up, decided to share the screwup, and who hasnt been trough that exact dunder blunder? Fun short read 8/10.

There is a strange human phenomenon, particularly visible online. Some folk see a title like that and it triggers a "How can I blame the author?" urge within before they even open the link.

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Re: I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

#175
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And often the advice comes out as rather un-opinionated and general, which for most people means it's hard to actually action and put in place I agree with this. It seems that I have to make all the choices myself to shield the company from any responsibility so why should I pay some fee for the advice? No wonders that people get advice from random videos on YouTube or any equivalent source.

I have found there is really good advice out there, it's just in places most people won't look. The first one is books. Go to a book shop, and find a book on personal finances, written by a registered financial advisor in your country, for your country. It'll be long, stuffy, boring as fuck, but you'll likely come away well informed. I think if you're reading HN this would suit. Second one is personal financial advis…

> Except it'll cost like $200

I don't know where you could possibly get high-quality, personalized financial advice (with fiduciary standard) for 200. From my experience it's more likely it's on the order of thousands of dollars.

Re: I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While you have a point... it's complicated. Selective defaults are already common for companies, so there could be a chance (to emphasise, a miniscule but still-existing chance) that it'll default on this bond while still guaranteeing the value of its currency.

I mean it’s safe to say if the government is going to default on a 10k loan there are bigger issues.

Yes. But these bigger issues, while taking down more than the currency with it do leave certain investment opportunities safe. E.g gold which would likely see opposite trend in value. Perhaps also crypto, cultivable land etc. The refusal to accept governments can (and often have in history) will only make it worse for people when it happens.

Re: I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the undetermined inflation rate for November 2022 has to go down to less than 7.12% (annualized) for that (the April case) to be a real "golden" opportunity? How likely is that?

In my personal calculations, I've been comparing the return from I bonds to CDs. Right now, the I bond provides higher interest than CDs have provided since the 80s. However, since the I bond term readjusts in 6 mo intervals, it's possible for CD rates to catch up in the next two years as interest rates rise. So if there is anything 'golden' about the situation, it's the opportunity to (perhaps briefly) receive 80s-e…

One interesting thing is that even nominal Treasuries are yielding above CDs at the moment but the difference is more like 20 bps or so.

Can you imagine the people who bought i bonds in the 2000s when the fixed yield part of the return was 3.6%? Though they obviously had their ups and downs, but right now if they held on they are sitting on a year of 10%+ yields.

Re: I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

#178
post #84
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a strange human phenomenon, particularly visible online. Some folk see a title like that and it triggers a "How can I blame the author?" urge within before they even open the link.

That’s definitely a thing too often. The “middlebrow rejection” or something like that. But in this case the OP got a message saying they had exceeded the limit and would get a refund. Then they repeated the transaction at the limit for a total of 20k. From reading comments here it sounds like the author both misinterpreted things and also compulsively over deposited to test the governments software. Testing governme…

I like to think of it as an extension of Cunningham's Law[0]

> Cunningham's Law states "the best way to get the right answer on the internet is not to ask a question; it's to post the wrong answer."

That is "post anything online and someone will point out you are doing it wrong"

[0]: https://meta.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/Cunningham%27s_Law

Re: I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

#180
post #6

I wonder: when they say "A refund of the excess purchase will be made...", does that mean they'll refund the entire $10,000 transaction, or will they keep $9,975 of it (so that you do have a $10K i-bond investment) and only refund the excess $25?

Incidentally, that exact confusion is why he made the third transaction for $9,975. The refund on his second transaction will either be for $25 or $10,000, so his third transaction will either be refunded in full or not at all.
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