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Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

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Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#171

Post by dragonwriter »

edmundsauto wrote: post #146
dragonwriter wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Anyway, this threat loses a lot of teeth when the reason Ukraine is getting destroyed at the moment is because they are not in NATO. It is because they are not in NATO and also did not explicitly abandon the aspiration of joining. The threat is intended to get Finland and Sweden to explicitly disclaim any intent of joining NATO (and maybe make binding commitments), not just to get them to not apply. OTOH, as you no…

Honest question, do you really believe that Russias attack was based on the NATO aspirations, or is that just an excuse? I don’t take what Putin says at face value.

> Honest question, do you really believe that Russias attack was based on the NATO aspirations, or is that just an excuse?

Yes, and no. I think that acceding to Russia’s demands here could have forestalled an invasion for the time being, but would have led to increasing Russian demands to direct policy, backed by threat of force, with even less available outside assistance. Ultimately either invasion or becoming a Russian puppet state would be the end, unless something else altered Russia’s course.

The long game is empire, but close NATO association is an urgent obstacle to the long game.

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#172

Post by bjtitus »

pacetherace wrote: post #98
ch4s3 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's starting to look like Putin may have miscalculated here.

Really? He is fighting to have veto over who gets to join NATO. It will be a victory for him if he is able to freeze NATO membership to the current number. Russian economy maybe be ruined for next decade or longer and most likely Putin will be dead or retired by then but he would be looked in Russia as the guy who keep Russia relevant. Putin is embarrassing US and NATO by destroying Ukraine while they watch helplessl…

You replied to a report about two more Northern European countries joining NATO who seem to have been against it before by saying Putin is freezing NATO membership where it is?

It seems like things are going completely opposite of the way you describe them.

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#173

Post by anonyfox »

jacquesm wrote: post #163
anonyfox wrote: post #66

As a German I was today years old when I learned that sweden isnt part of the nato already … like the current secretary even sounds swedish by name … whelp Edit: really don’t want to sound ignorant here, just that while growing up and traveling around Central Europe there was a strong belief that we‘re all in the same boat and I even remember maps showing all countries (except Switzerland) in shades of „blue“ but … I…

Just in case: Neither is Switzerland. https://www.mappr.co/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/image-1.jpeg

And austria too… somewhat shocking- I took this for granted for some reason

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#174

Post by T-zex »

hnarn wrote: post #81
voisin wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why were you skeptical of NATO membership? What are the downsides?

There are many pros and cons, but from a Swedish perspective, one of the obvious "downsides" would be an end to the idea of Swedish neutrality, which has been a thing since the early 1800's. This may be a hard thing to relate to if you're not a Swede, but if you imagine any political tradition in your country that's over 200 years old, you may understand that the idea of changing it generates some reluctance. I would…

Had a Swedish colleague and he said he did a military service. Answering to the question "why" he told us that Swedish must prepare not for the if but for when Russia invades. That was before the Georgian war when Russia seemed to be less aggressive. I guess the perspective should be changing within the country.

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#175

Post by watwut »

Ekaros wrote: post #135
watwut wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah, if this is dig at Biden, he is not doing that badly and is actually better predictable. Also, you don't seem to know what NATO is.

I know, but I have observed what countries in NATO have done. And it's nothing but pure evil. And sadly there has been zero consequences...

Nato is mutal defense act. That is what it is. If your Russia attack Poland, other NATO members should treat it as attack on themselves.

That is what it is.

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#176

Post by _trackno5 »

edmundsauto wrote: post #146
dragonwriter wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Anyway, this threat loses a lot of teeth when the reason Ukraine is getting destroyed at the moment is because they are not in NATO. It is because they are not in NATO and also did not explicitly abandon the aspiration of joining. The threat is intended to get Finland and Sweden to explicitly disclaim any intent of joining NATO (and maybe make binding commitments), not just to get them to not apply. OTOH, as you no…

Honest question, do you really believe that Russias attack was based on the NATO aspirations, or is that just an excuse? I don’t take what Putin says at face value.

Tbh it's tough to tell. There's a long history of Putin complaining about NATO expansion, and even before he came to power there were concerns about it.

When Georgia was about to join NATO, Putin seized it. Seems like they are trying the same now.

It's tough for me to empathise with this pathological fear of NATO Putin seems to have.

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#177

Post by bcrosby95 »

causi wrote: post #22
belter wrote: post #5

As I wrote in another thread today, current EU and US leaders are asleep at the wheel. We have a different dynamic. Talking about sanctions looks almost pathetic. The analogy here is, you live in a community and one of your neighbors just lost it completely and is shooting and shelling another neighbor. Not to raise the hostilities...you scream at him he wont be invited anymore for the Christmas party and you will co…

Seven hundred billion dollars a year and we can't even defend the weak unless it looks profitable on the balance sheet. Never have I been more ashamed to be American than I was yesterday.

There's not enough troops to prevent all the atrocities in the world. Morality ain't got 'nothin to do with it. Nevermind that more war means more suffering for everyone involved. The answer is way more complicated, and anyone on the internet that claims to know what to do is full of shit.

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#178

Post by cjbgkagh »

hnarn wrote: post #114
rhino369 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'll get nuked if Russia and the West ever are stupid enough to start WWIII.

Even if you were correct, does it matter that your European country is not nuked when the rest of them are?

There is a very big difference between being nuked and not being nuked

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#179

Post by bluGill »

anonyfox wrote: post #66

As a German I was today years old when I learned that sweden isnt part of the nato already … like the current secretary even sounds swedish by name … whelp Edit: really don’t want to sound ignorant here, just that while growing up and traveling around Central Europe there was a strong belief that we‘re all in the same boat and I even remember maps showing all countries (except Switzerland) in shades of „blue“ but … I…

While Sweden was never part of NATO, there are rumors that under the table they were given assurance that if there was trouble NATO would be there. Sweden used to be a big world power.

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#180

Post by jopsen »

belter wrote: post #120
sharken wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an empty threat from Putin, he may be close to a madman but he is not stupid. Attacking NATO will mean his removal from power, most likely by someone within his own ranks. If Sweden or Finland wants in, then NATO should comply as fast as possible.

Technically, if there were attacked this evening, nobody in the US or EU would come to help them. They would be AND are in the same situation as Ukraine.

> Technically, if there were attacked this evening, nobody in the US or EU would come to help them.

Nobody would bound by a public alliance to help them.

We don't know if secret agreements exists? But I guess such agreements would be easier to not honor.

And just because NATO isn't required to intervene, that's not the same as they wouldn't.

In theory it's a bit like Ukraine, except Finland and Sweden are less corrupt, more wealthy, etc.

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