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Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

reuters.com

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Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#171

Post by dekhn »

sveme wrote: post #139
dekhn wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since they're already shelling Kyiv, they obviously have more options than tanks to take ownership of the governmental apparatus. I can't see how Ukraine can put up any realistic defence given they now have no radar tracking or air support. If your point is "it takes tanks a few days to get to Kyiv", then, yes, that is technically correct. If your point is "Russia needs to invade the whole country", no. They own the…

The US did not control either Iraq nor Afghanistan when they took Baghdad or Kabul, respectively. That‘s not how a much weaker force fights nowadays against the more powerful opponent.

I believe russia has already fully integrated the idea that this will shift to a guerilla war once they have complete ownership of all the country. Nor is Ukraine (or Russia's way of maintaining control over a country once they occupy it) is really analogous to either of those countries.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#172

Post by Ruphin »

lend000 wrote: post #91

It's hard to view the events unfolding with an objective gaze. Virtually all of western journalism condemns Russia's attacks unilaterally, which seems reasonable, considering people are dying to grow a dictator's empire. But then I read about the history of the conflict and see that Ukraine has had separatist states and civil war for years. It isn't like Ukraine is a stable, peaceful, and unwitting nation, like, say,…

The idea that the (in)stability of a nation can legitimize military incursion by another nation is plain absurd. At what point exactly does a war become legitimate? Is it okay to attack a country when they are entwined in civil war? What percentage of the country needs to be involved in the conflict? What if it is an unarmed but still major internal political conflict?

No war is legitimate.

Comparing this incursion to NATO "protecting" their national interests in Syria or Iraq is perhaps defensible, but the only logical conclusion is that these interventions were/are equally condemnable.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#173

Post by rmk »

nuccy wrote: post #156
rmk wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so options are somewhat limited. Russia intends to use Chernobyl as a deterrent to NATO, according to the report (how, I do not know). It is also not straightforward to put a NATO ally right on Russia's vulnerable flank (it's endless plains and flat ground from Ukraine to Moscow, which has always been a source of strategic vulnerability for Moscow), so admitting Ukraine to NATO was ne…

Ukraine signed a Budapest memorandum [1] where US, France, UK and Russia guaranteed its territory integrity in exhange for the 3rd in the world arsenal of nuclear weapons. 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur...

Interesting. I suppose a resolute response to the first violation by Russia might have helped.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#175

Post by [deleted] »

f311a wrote: post #87
hwers wrote: post #21

I can't really tell what's going on here. Is the EU and America supposed to be helping out but it's all promises without real counter attacks? Is this just the calm before the storm as russia places their troops in the right spots while everyone looks on? Anyone who's smarter than me who could enlighten me?

Russia has nuclear power. That’s the main reason.

[deleted]

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#176

Post by StillBored »

willis936 wrote: post #101
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so options are somewhat limited Ukraine not being in NATO means we aren’t obligated to intervene. We regularly intervene in various things without a treaty requiring it.

Costs money and political capital. What it buys is defense of Ukrainian sovereignty and escalates conflict with a dangerous, poor nuclear superpower. Ukraine is being handed to Putin. He gets to flex his strongman ego and the world gets to not be ended (today).

Which sounds disturbingly like British/French response to the Rhineland/Austria lead up to WWII.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#177

Post by awb »

lend000 wrote: post #91

It's hard to view the events unfolding with an objective gaze. Virtually all of western journalism condemns Russia's attacks unilaterally, which seems reasonable, considering people are dying to grow a dictator's empire. But then I read about the history of the conflict and see that Ukraine has had separatist states and civil war for years. It isn't like Ukraine is a stable, peaceful, and unwitting nation, like, say,…

> But then I read about the history of the conflict and see that Ukraine has had separatist states and civil war for years.

Ukraine voted 90+% in favor of independence from Russia back in the 1991, with 82% of the electorate participating: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_Independence_of...

Since Putin came to power, he's worked hard to expand Russia's influence outside of it's current borders and back towards it's former USSR or Russian Empire borders. This includes propaganda, instigating rebellions, etc.

The "civil war" in Ukraine, started after a pro-Russian President was ousted, and without direct influence over Ukraine, Russia has been fighting a proxy war in the separatist regions.

> It isn't like Ukraine is a stable, peaceful, and unwitting nation, like, say, Denmark.

Russia is claiming that the people of Ukraine are Russian speaking and historically belong integrated with Russia.

It's like Mexico saying they want the Southwest US back. Historically it was part of Mexico, has many Spanish speakers, etc.

But where does this stop? What if Italy wants to recreate the Roman Empire or the UK wants to re-establish the British Empire? It's really bizarre to look backwards in time, as there are 30 year olds in Ukraine with kids of their own now who were never alive during the USSR and know nothing but Ukrainian independence.

Ideally as a world, we allow people the right to self-determination. But every superpower I can think of throughout history is guilty of influencing (or attacking) foreign countries for political and military advantage and manufacturing any reason imaginable to justify it.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#178

Post by qbasic_forever »

thow-58d4e8b wrote: post #105
BitwiseFool wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is actually deviously brilliant. No one wants to shell the area because it would release all the dust and radionuclides that were buried during the cleanup. It is a perfect staging area because the downside to attacking it is so high. No allied forces in Europe want to deal with the fallout - literally. This is so genius I'm genuinely in awe. This is right out of Sun Tzu: “The art of war teaches us to rely not on…

Chernobyl sarcophagus is a massive pile of concrete - basically indestructible. Buildings made of concrete are ridiculously resilient to explosions - remember the Beirut explosion? That grain silo right next to the epicenter was still standing Berlin has some flak towers from WW2, quoting Wikipedia: The Soviets, in their assault on Berlin, found it difficult to inflict significant damage on the flak towers, even with…

Chernobyl's containment is not massive concrete, and cannot sustain a hit from a bomb in any way. The new safe containment structure is metal and air, it's meant to contain dust as the reactor building inside is dismantled. Watch this to learn all about it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdnutU2m71o

The old sarcophagus that was build in 1986 only had concrete walls in a few key places. Much of it had huge holes and open areas covered in sheet metal. All of it was falling apart and rapidly deteriorating when construction on new safe containment started.

And remember there are 3 other reactor buildings at the site and none of them are covered by the containment structure or really any protection (Chernobyl's Soviet era design which lacks a concrete containment structure is partly why its meltdown was so catastrophic). The site cannot withstand any attack.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#179

Post by adrr »

nuccy wrote: post #156
rmk wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so options are somewhat limited. Russia intends to use Chernobyl as a deterrent to NATO, according to the report (how, I do not know). It is also not straightforward to put a NATO ally right on Russia's vulnerable flank (it's endless plains and flat ground from Ukraine to Moscow, which has always been a source of strategic vulnerability for Moscow), so admitting Ukraine to NATO was ne…

Ukraine signed a Budapest memorandum [1] where US, France, UK and Russia guaranteed its territory integrity in exhange for the 3rd in the world arsenal of nuclear weapons. 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur...

US, France and UK have guaranteed that no country will ever dismantle their nukes for a piece of paper. This will make the world much more dangerous with Iran pursing nukes which will be shortly followed by Saudi Arabia. North Korea will never disarm. Proliferation will continue and technology advancements will make it easier for countries to acquire nukes.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#180

Post by Andrew_nenakhov »

jandrese wrote: post #72
whatshisface wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not clear whether every financial weapon will be used. For example, > The foreign ministers of the Baltic states called for Russia to be cut off from SWIFT, the global intermediary for banks' financial transactions. However, other EU member states were reluctant, both because European lenders held most of the nearly $30 billion in foreign bank's exposure to Russia and because China has developed an alternative t…

This is where diplomacy should shine. It's clear that Russia has been hardening against western sanctions for years now, and CIPS is a big piece of that. If NATO can convince China to also shut them out of CIPS at the same time we turn off SWIFT the Russian Oligarchs will start applying pressure to Putin.

Russian oligarchs will not apply pressure to Putin. They are all accomplices now.

All this politics theater of the past few days was to make everyone of notice show support for invasion, in public form. Lawmakers, Security council, oligarchs, senators, everyone. So they would know they won't be able to betray him and escape. They are all forced to make their bones.

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