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Starlink lost 40 satellites to a geomagnetic storm

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Re: Starlink lost 40 satellites to a geomagnetic storm

#171
post #118
post #20

40 sats makes up about 2% of the current fleet - so a rounding error in cost and time. The important part of this news is how those 40 sats deorbit and leave no junk either in orbit or on earth.

If you earned $100k, that would be $2000. Would you write it off as a rounding error?

I already write off 43k due to taxes, so sure, why not .

Re: Starlink lost 40 satellites to a geomagnetic storm

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup, spacex stuff is all LEO. Without input it all crashes into the atmosphere in a few years (3 I believe)

I don’t think this is true. Looking at this: https://i.stack.imgur.com/pMchk.jpg from UN, objects above 500km take ~25 years to decay from orbit. They reportedly start at 550km, so I wonder how they hope to achieve 3 years of deorbit without active control.

It depends on density and cross section (and solar flux); a 500km orbit can be 2-30 years, depending. That's all basically still in the "self-cleaning" domain. Being rather dense and flat, I'd expect Starlink to be on the lower end of that range.

http://www.spaceacademy.net.au/watch/debris/orblife.htm

The Starlink "0.9" batch was launched in May 2019. Most reached operational altitude; those that did not decayed quite early, as expected. Those that remained operational have by now been deliberately dropped, but some 5 seem to have become unresponsive at a more-or-less operational altitude.

See dashboard at https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49936.200

Starlink-43 is the first of those to fully decay, reentering around 26 January. https://in-the-sky.org/spacecraft.php?id=44257

Starlink-24 is probably going to be the slowest of that cohort. It might have a couple years left. https://in-the-sky.org/spacecraft.php?id=44257

Natural decay in <5 years is really quite fast as these things go.

Re: Starlink lost 40 satellites to a geomagnetic storm

#173
post #18

What's crazy to me is that 50 years ago, losing 40 satellites would have been a significant portion of all satellites ever launched . Today, it's a temporary setback for a company that launched nearly one thousand satellites last year.

> 50 years ago, losing 40 satellites would have been a significant portion made me think "100 years ago, it would have been (40/0)*0.01 = infinity percent", which probably means i need to lay off the coffee a bit.

Should be more than zero though, no?

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/infographics/an-early-history-of-sa...

Re: Starlink lost 40 satellites to a geomagnetic storm

#174
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Need third party analysis of that, personally

Many third parties have analyzed it. FCC, Nasa, their competitors, and others.

To the people that provided third party analysis, thank you, to everyone else, be like those people.

Re: Starlink lost 40 satellites to a geomagnetic storm

#175
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Does SpaceX not review the data / warnings before launch?" is peak Hacker News pettiness. Try not to assume the worst, especially when it's pretty silly.

It is really up there with the HN classic "Does anyone else think the entire multi billion dollar targeted advertising industry is a scam that doesn't work?"

I don’t necessarily think it’s a scam but am rather skeptical of the way that the results get measured and reported.

Re: Starlink lost 40 satellites to a geomagnetic storm

#176
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you earned $100k, that would be $2000. Would you write it off as a rounding error?

Yeah. I mean, if I was doing something risky.

Hanging out on WallStreetBets? Yes

Paying for lunch? No

Re: Starlink lost 40 satellites to a geomagnetic storm

#177
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would spacex be liable if one of their satellites hits your car or house?

Yeah, I mean to be specific your homeowners' insurance would pay you directly for "falling debris", but then they would go sue SpaceX to get their money back.

This reminds me of an episode of Jim Henson's TV series Dinosaurs where a space rock hits the Sinclairs' house, and the insurance refuses to pay out. Because they had "meteor" insurance, so their house would only be covered if it was floating in the upper atmosphere at the time of the strike. Instead, the insurance said their house was hit with a meteorite (a meteor that reached the ground), which wasn't covered under their policy.

Re: Starlink lost 40 satellites to a geomagnetic storm

#178
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. But they're designed to burn up on entry. I think it's been mentioned on HN that the delay in their laser link network was due to the need to redesign the laser component to ensure it would break up.

When people say something will "burn up on reentry", a phrase that I've heard almost all of my life but never really given much thought too, how burnt are we talking? Surely it doesn't just completely atomize?

I’d love to know more about this too.

Re: Starlink lost 40 satellites to a geomagnetic storm

#179
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't quite a fair comparison, though, because it doesn't consider the energy requirements to refine lox.

It takes about .7 MJ to refine a kg of lox, compared to 43 MJ released by a kg of kerosene. So that's not really a significant fraction.

It's estimated that about 260g of CO2 is emitted per kg of liquid oxygen delivered to end users.

And the oxidizer to fuel ratio is 2.5, so basically this doubles the impact.

(And let's not get started on the rest of energy intensive things involved in space launch).

Yes, space launch isn't ridiculously energy intensive, but it does put the 777 to shame.

Re: Starlink lost 40 satellites to a geomagnetic storm

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's part of the reason there's just so much junk flying around in orbit. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome

If you read the article, SpaceX specifically designed the process to avoid orbiting junk.

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