Omicron has probably saved Florida (andnother southern states) from a horrendous Delta winter wave.
Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
171–180 of 703 posts
Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
#172Just giving my 2 cents. Got boosted 3 weeks ago. Now I have covid. Everything is fine, feels like the least ill i ever was from anything. But I wanted to state that omnicron is a beast. I did wear a ffp2 mask with nearly every social contact and if we didnt wear mask we would test ourself. I am sure I got it from the streets from people passing by. That said I am in the french alps and it was vacation time here. And…
Why are you hoping for Covid to become endemic?
Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
#173Surely this is the end of the pandemic? With an estimated 300k+ cases per day here in the UK, that is 10 million this month on top of everyone who has already had it. It’s as though nobody is ready to acknowledge the elephant in the room that Covid is nearly finished. Or am I missing something?
Omicron evades the "natural immunity" that people were getting a hard on for. That explains a lot (not all) of the massive fitness it has - it can infect people that previously had Covid infections again.
Does it only evade natural immunity and not that imparted by vaccines?
Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
#174Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're missing the fact you can catch it over and over. My wife is currently battling Omicron after we both had covid at the start of last year. Fully vaccinated and boosted three weeks ago, caught it anyway. With an infected population this massive mutations happen fast enough to cause a new wave before the old one burns out.
Do we know if a previous omicron infection helps confer immunity to future omicron infections?
We can't know that because it hasn't been around long enough. But as far as taking a bayesian prior, I'd start by assuming yes except in rare cases and correct your model as evidence comes in.
I'd guess that because, for the most part, that's how the previous variants behaved. Relatively robust immunity, with subsequent infections generally being rare and more mild. Since Omicron has a lot of mutations on the spike protein which is the primary antibody target, it has greater immune escape potential because the antibodies don't fit as well.
Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
#175What does 100% prevalence mean? 100% of people are at least silent carriers?
Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
#176Surely this is the end of the pandemic? With an estimated 300k+ cases per day here in the UK, that is 10 million this month on top of everyone who has already had it. It’s as though nobody is ready to acknowledge the elephant in the room that Covid is nearly finished. Or am I missing something?
What does 100% prevalence mean? 100% of people are at least silent carriers?
Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
#177Can anyone point me to a reliable source that explains in layman's terms why one cancels out the other and it's not possible to have both (say) delta and omicron at once. Somewhat tongue in cheek, but since cancellation seems to be the case, could we not create a version that was 100x more transmissible than omicron but completely benign? Cane toads in Australia aside ;)
Exponential growth. Lets say that there is one delta infection and one omicron infection in the population. Each delta infection causes two more people to be infected, while each omicron infection causes three more people to be infected.
The growth of a single delta infection: 1 -> 2 -> 4 -> 8 -> 16 -> 32 -> 64
Versus a single omicron infection: 1 -> 3 -> 9 -> 27 -> 81 -> 243 -> 729
Omicron started out as 50% of the cases and over 6 reinfection cycles became 90% of the cases. Delta just can't keep up. These are made up numbers but that is the general idea.
Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
#178Can anyone point me to a reliable source that explains in layman's terms why one cancels out the other and it's not possible to have both (say) delta and omicron at once. Somewhat tongue in cheek, but since cancellation seems to be the case, could we not create a version that was 100x more transmissible than omicron but completely benign? Cane toads in Australia aside ;)
IIRC there was a study showing Omicron antibodies are effective against previous variants, but not vice versa.
[edit] I think this is where I heard that. Feel free to judge for yourself how reliable the source is. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYLbJ0H8zdc
Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
#179In Colorado. Anecdotal, 6 ppl I know here all have covid. 3 of them had their boosters 2 weeks before hand. 1 unvaccinated. Was like a bad cold for all of them.
also in colorado. currently have O. the + tests from our (previously very cautious) friend groups are coming in rapidly. i was boosted in mid-novemeber. _physical_ symptoms feel like a bad cold (cough, congested head, sinus headaches) though i'm afebrile. the mental symptoms are definitely different/stronger. sleeplessness. auditory hallucinations. i'd say mental fog but i can't say that's not related to the sleeples…
I'm now 10 days clear of the last obvious symptoms - but I've been having major trouble focusing since the end of the Holiday and not sure if due to covid or not.
Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
#180Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're missing the fact you can catch it over and over. My wife is currently battling Omicron after we both had covid at the start of last year. Fully vaccinated and boosted three weeks ago, caught it anyway. With an infected population this massive mutations happen fast enough to cause a new wave before the old one burns out.
I have omicron right now (4-5 months after 2nd jab, so pretty much no effect from that) and it's just like a common cold (certainly wouldn't call it "battling omicron"). I have zero problems with getting this each year.
Hmmm... mild symptoms after being vaccinated. It's almost like the vaccine worked or something. How weird.