Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85% • Hacker News Board

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#171

Post by tmoravec » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 2:13 PM UTC

mbreese wrote: post #80

fullstackchris wrote: post #38

Did anyone hear NPR's reporting on this? They said the early study was originally halted BECAUSE of it's positive effects at preventing hospitalization and death... very weird, I hope it is a typo or I'm understanding it wrong...

I haven’t read anything about this study, but this is common for highly effective treatments. Let’s say you have a randomized clinical trial with a control arm (placebo) and test arm (drug). If the vast majority of the test cases do significantly better (like 90% of the test cases), at some point it becomes unethical to continue. Why? Because you already have the evidence that the treatment works, so having the contr…

Pardon my naive question, but aren't there more objectives for the clinical trial? Particularly testing for negative side effects? How are those judged if the trial is discontinued?

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#172

Post by nsxwolf » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 2:13 PM UTC

helge9210 wrote: post #65

otabdeveloper4 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Long covid" is an urban legend.

It does exist. Probably has the same symptoms as any other virus pneumonia.

Long-everything exists, we just don't talk about it. I've had multiple colds that lasted 2-3 months, and one that didn't completely resolve for almost 6 months.

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#173

Post by sudosysgen » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 2:13 PM UTC

School-Cotton wrote: post #128

resoluteteeth wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be somewhat ironic if antivaxxers latch onto this drug, because it actually has a possibility of turning out to have bad side effects that will only show up much later (increased rates of cancer), which is a major reason that is given for people not wanting to get vaccinated. Edit: Actually I was confusing this with molnupiravir; this drug is presumably perfectly safe.

Why is the probability of late-appearing side effects higher for this than for the vaccine?

Because of its mechanism of action, which is to induce massive and deadly mutation and reproductive issues on the virus. Normally this should not have an effect on our bodies, but it's not impossible that it does lead to higher cancer rates.

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#174

Post by TheHypnotist » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 2:14 PM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #110

Does anyone have a sense as to when US society will completely eliminate COVID measures? Is it just me or is there no clear exit criteria anymore? This will go on forever without exit criteria.

My company is fairly standard with the state we are in. They are extremely cautious, put emphasis on safety, but did get to a point where if you are vaccinated, you can go maskless... right up until the delta variant surge started infecting and killing people at an alarming rate.

Now we're JUST starting to talk about relaxing again. If this is any barometer, not to mention the rate of which we are seeing pills/vaccines/what have you, I imagine 2022. Outside of work, things are largely "normal".

For what it's worth - I live in a dense Northern state not seeing a surge of cases.

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#175

Post by cossatot » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 2:14 PM UTC

Fellshard wrote: post #99

RicoElectrico wrote: post #50

We had reports of people who wanted to take weird-ass drugs-of-the-day just to refuse getting vaccinated. And screaming "conspiracy" when their efficacy was not confirmed to be as high as they expected. Good that we have something that actually works, bad that some assholes will use it as an excuse not to get vaxxed, completely missing the point (among others, trying to prevent something worse than Delta).

Genuine question: is it necessary to get vaxxed if - all else held the same - the cost is not significantly higher for the antiviral? Wouldn't that cut the risk down so significantly that we can safely say, "Vaccinate if you're at-risk for your own protection, and have negligible risk otherwise"? This changes the entire risk calculation.

Vaccination is in large part about beating the epidemic, i.e. the population-scale prevalence of the pathogen, by preventing most of the infections and therefore disease transmission. This pill is about treating disease symptoms, but while doing nothing to limit disease spread.

So while on a personal level, there may not be dramatic differences in death rates etc., on a population level the differences are huge.

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#176

Post by timr » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 2:14 PM UTC

dontcare007 wrote: post #136

matsemann wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the consequence of not taking it is death, I think people would run to the front of the queue, though.

But that's just it, there's less than a 2% chance of dying even if you get COVID.

It's much higher than that for easily identifiable subgroups -- elderly people and obese people being trivial examples.

The control arm of this study had a rate of "hospitalization or death" of 7% because they selected for subgroups at high risk.

It's fine to acknowledge that aggregate risk of Covid is low (and indeed, more people should acknowledge that fact), but we must also acknowledge that it is a serious risk for a large group of people.

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#177

Post by johnday » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 2:14 PM UTC

djrogers wrote: post #124

matsemann wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the consequence of not taking it is death, I think people would run to the front of the queue, though.

Sounds like the consequence of not taking it is a 0.5% chance of death, so probably not a lot of running for those who understand COVID death rates.

If the drug has got this far into testing, there is no chance in hell that it has >0.5% chance of death (or other awful side-effects) on ingestion. So it's an upgrade either way.

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#178

Post by matsemann » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 2:15 PM UTC

djrogers wrote: post #124

matsemann wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the consequence of not taking it is death, I think people would run to the front of the queue, though.

Sounds like the consequence of not taking it is a 0.5% chance of death, so probably not a lot of running for those who understand COVID death rates.

It seems to me that you're one of those not understanding COVID death rates, though.

Firstly, even though I doubt your number a bit, even a 1/200 chance of death is mighty high enough for most people to seek treatment for something.

Secondly, if you're already infected, the pill is probably less risky than those 1/200.

Thirdly, the chance of death isn't equal for everyone. A healthy young person might have a 10x reduced risk, while an older person with an existing condition a 10x increased risk. So at least for one of them the new medicine is clearly worth trying.

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#179

Post by jartelt » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 2:15 PM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #110

Does anyone have a sense as to when US society will completely eliminate COVID measures? Is it just me or is there no clear exit criteria anymore? This will go on forever without exit criteria.

I could see things starting to really ease up once all children have had a chance to be vaccinated and everyone else has had a chance to get their 6 month booster shot.

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#180

Post by willcipriano » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 2:15 PM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #110

Does anyone have a sense as to when US society will completely eliminate COVID measures? Is it just me or is there no clear exit criteria anymore? This will go on forever without exit criteria.

After the midterms is my guess.