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Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

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Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#171

Post by sgt101 »

sneak wrote: post #141
octopoc wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I may ask, what are your thoughts on BuildZoom? If I go through them can I be more certain about quality work? I have heard many horror stories of people who had houses built and the builders made terrible mistakes. The person having the house built had to micromanage them and kept finding bad mistakes, like "forgetting" to put insulation in walls before the drywall, putting a window in the wrong spot, or putting…

I imagine the better way is to hire an experienced GC to go and check on it every day for you. It’s only “better” in terms of time (and perhaps experience), though.

I think that this is the way to go because it's really hard to catch all of the things that can go on on site if you're not a professional. I built (ok got fellas in to build) an extension many years ago and I didn't catch that the drainage was inadequate until after they had completed and left - so I had to get that done separately and it wasn't cheap. Every builder I've talked to since has given me the impression that they would have spotted this upfront, and I think I believe them.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#173

Post by Aloha »

kebman wrote: post #167
hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

Why does the USA, The Land of the Free and The Land of Opportunity, have so much bureaucracy? Look, I know fire codes are important, and you don't want a building to crumble in around you, but... Seems the building codes in the US are unnecessarily strict. Is it power hungry bureaucrats or exploitation from contractors that has lead to it? And how can the people be given more liberty to build the way they want?

Notice how that building collapse in Florida is a vanishingly rare event?

That's part of why. Also some rent seeking in there. We used to have weak building codes, more buildings fell down.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#175

Post by oceanghost »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #120
xfhgjxcfgh wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Low interest rates, QE, stimulus, and rocketing stock prices facilitated the hot real estate market as much as proximate covid policies. You are correct to guess there is a substantial discussion that you're ignorant of.

Low interest rates don't increase inflation do they? And rocketing stock prices are definitely not a part of inflation. QE and stimulus can certainly contribute , but "as much" is a pretty big overstatement. If anyone thinks inflation was a notable fraction of the price quadrupling, they're being ridiculous. Even a huge amount of inflation would only be 2-4% of the lumber price increase.

Actually low interest rates are one of the primary causes of monetary inflation due to how fractional reserve banking works.

The TLDR is this. I borrow a million dollars, and give it to you for a house. You deposit it, and your bank loans 97% of it to someone else. They deposit that, and loan 97% of that out again... ad infinitum.

Commonly this is called the "money multiplier."

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#176

Post by kebman »

Aloha wrote: post #173
kebman wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does the USA, The Land of the Free and The Land of Opportunity, have so much bureaucracy? Look, I know fire codes are important, and you don't want a building to crumble in around you, but... Seems the building codes in the US are unnecessarily strict. Is it power hungry bureaucrats or exploitation from contractors that has lead to it? And how can the people be given more liberty to build the way they want?

Notice how that building collapse in Florida is a vanishingly rare event? That's part of why. Also some rent seeking in there. We used to have weak building codes, more buildings fell down.

I get the need to safeguard condominiums and high-rises, but what is that to single or duplex home owners?

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#178

Post by Revell »

Fiahil wrote: post #166

What bothered me the most during this whole episode, is that the prices also skyrocketed, here, in Europe. We had nowhere near the same need for wood as north-american constructions.

That's mainly because we started exporting most of the wood to North America, creating our own shortage here in Europe. Hence, prices went up here too.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#179

Post by leehuffman »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #134
tayo42 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

Yes! This has been my nagging question for years too. I make 5x the median wage in my county and my county has the second highest wage in the US. I see all these $M houses being sold left and right and I'd never feel comfortable buying a $M plus house. What gives?

A ~14 year bull market, interest rates, and the last decade+ of appreciation on real estate. Everyone is flush with cash and borrowing money against a home is free.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#180

Post by jdgoesmarching »

kebman wrote: post #167
hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

Why does the USA, The Land of the Free and The Land of Opportunity, have so much bureaucracy? Look, I know fire codes are important, and you don't want a building to crumble in around you, but... Seems the building codes in the US are unnecessarily strict. Is it power hungry bureaucrats or exploitation from contractors that has lead to it? And how can the people be given more liberty to build the way they want?

Actually the reverse, building codes for most of the US are a joke. We continue to build horribly inefficient and uncomfortable homes because every extra penny is spent on square footage and extra McMansion features. When houses become financial instruments there is no incentive to make houses into good homes, despite building science folks jumping up and down for decades.

Houses are complicated systems that need to control heat, moisture, water, and power while removing waste. This whole thing needs to be structurally sound while burning slowly enough so that you have time to react and escape in case of a fire. These are the most important investments most people ever make, and for the most part we are all served the cheapest legally permissible house that consumes as much space as possible.

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