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Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out

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171–180 of 337 posts

Re: Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out

#171
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But AirBnB is clearly used to create illegal hotels and that's the problem. The solution is increased enforcement of the laws that make these illegal. The incentives aren't difficult: Create an anonymous tip line to report illegal AirBnB operations that violate zoning regulations. Have submitters provide the street address and URL of the AirBnB to make it easy. The person operating the AirBnB (or owner of the house…

> The person submitting the tip about an illegal AirBnB receives 25% of the fine. I feel like the whole "rat on your neighbors for money" thing has a lot of negative unintended consequences.

It absolutely would. But who's to say it was your neighbor instead of a random person in the city who's looking for a quick buck and knows AirB&B is illegal in the city?

Re: Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out

#172
post #33

A common quote on HN (and one that I firmly believe in) is: > It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it. This so applies to AirBnB. It's not salary per se but those that benefit by renting out units or those for whom this has saved them money I've found typically get so defensive about AirBnB to the point of calling detractors NIMBYists and the like. I'…

With or without airbnb, states aren't about to create anything close to a policy which compels existing landowners to rent out parts of their property. How do you increase housing supply?

1) Change zoning to actually allow mixed use and high-density living space instead of single-family

2) Fix tax laws and incentives so that property owners actually pay tax based on the real value of the property instead of whatever nonsense they pay today (California is especially bad for this, but the mortgage interest tax deduction sure as hell doesn't help)

3) Reduce red tape and regulatory bullshit that slows or massively drives up the cost of new developments

Re: Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. The whole concept of residential property as an investment must go. I wonder if enough AirBnB in the area could actually drive property cost down, because nobody would like to live there long term and then essentially wiping off all the profits people made by renting out. In the end only the AirBnB would really profit. It's a business model clearly bases on a loophole and should be closed. If someone wants t…

> The whole concept of residential property as an investment must go. One of the major "lessons" of the famous book Rich Dad, Poor Dad was that wise wealthy people view housing as an asset and investment, whereas poor and middle class people merely view it as an expense. This thinking is now deeply ingrained in our culture.

I mean, it is an investment. However the success of that investment basically means depriving future generations of a home, which they are fine with doing, clearly.

Re: Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out

#174
First, getting into really major concerns, this paper suffers from some serious potential for omitted variable bias. The goal of this study is to find the causal effect or treatment effect of Airbnb on violent crime: "This study tested the hypothesis that the arrival and growth of Airbnb, or home-sharing platforms in general, may increase crime and disorder in neighborhoods..." In other words, we want to know what would happen to violence if we could push a lever and increase or decrease Airbnb directly. A regression of violence on Airbnb tells us how violence tends to change with changes in Airbnb in the data. If there's some other factor that affects both Airbnb and violence (or affects one and is affected by the other), then the regression is going to find the mismash of the causal effect of Airbnb and the causal effect of that other factor and put it all on Airbnb.

This is especially problematic because the authors find changes in Airbnb penetration are correlated with census tract characteristics:

For Airbnb density (Fig 3a), we see that census tracts in the urban center (northeast on the map) show relatively high Airbnb presence from the beginning, but that in recent years the tracts with the highest level of Airbnb penetration emanate further out into surrounding, more residential neighborhoods.

This can be addressed by controlling for the confounding factor. Alternatively, we can look at a specific scenario where Airbnb penetration changed for reasons that almost certainly couldn't affect violence, and use that variation to find out how violence responds to Airbnb penetration.

Unfortunately, the paper only controlled for median income in the primary specification and percentage of black/Hispanic residents and homeownership rates in the robustness check (these additional controls are not in the database). This paper simply does not do enough to eliminate potential other explanations for why Airbnb penetration may be correlated with violence in a census tract without causing it.

I'm not that familiar with the crime literature, but from a very brief look at the abstract of one random paper, factors like economic inequality, poverty rates, population density, and divorce rates could predict violent crime. All of these could affect Airbnb penetration, such as through property prices (another potential confounding variable) or through amenities for tourists.

For example, increases in population density could both increase crime and increase Airbnb penetration (more amenities or maybe it's easier to buy new houses than existing houses). Or maybe Airbnb penetration increases more in areas with higher income inequality because there are cheap units near areas with rich amenities, and it's higher income inequality driving crime and Airbnb penetration. It could even be something unrelated to Airbnb that just so happened to affect urban and residential areas differently over these years. For example, maybe these regions had different changes in police presence during that time.

Second, another major concern is the potential nonstationarity in violent crime and Airbnb penetration. Airbnb has a very clear trend of increasing over time, as shown in Figure 1 of the paper. You can imagine violent crime also having a very clear time trend where this year's value depends heavily on last year's value. Controlling for year and neighborhood fixed effects, both a regression of violence and Airbnb penetration on its lagged (prior-year) value finds a coefficient of roughly 1, which indicates the presence of a time trend (technically you need a coefficient greater than or equal to 1, but coefficients close to 1 also produce similar problems with short time series like this one).

When you regress any non-stationary data series on another, you will always find a strong relationship between the two. That's true even with non-sensical relationships like GDP in the US and total recorded rainfall in Cambodia since Jan 1, 1900. You can think of time as the confounder which affects both series. Here, time is increasing both Airbnb penetration and violence. Even if they have nothing to do with each other, a regression will find a strong correlation between the two.

To avoid spurious correlations due to time trends, the most common way is to remove the time trend by looking at the change in the variables rather than their absolute values. That cancels out the time trend and allows for proper inference. This is why studies in finance usually look at returns (changes in values) rather than asset values. If we do that for this data, we again find the coefficient on Airbnb penetration becomes insignificant. To conclude, the very least we can say about the results of this paper is that it is incomplete. Plenty of standard controls for crime are not included, which weakens the ability of the paper to argue Airbnb causally leads to more violence. Further, the authors did not properly handle the presence of non-stationary data.

Re: Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out

#175

First, getting into really major concerns, this paper suffers from some serious potential for omitted variable bias. The goal of this study is to find the causal effect or treatment effect of Airbnb on violent crime: "This study tested the hypothesis that the arrival and growth of Airbnb, or home-sharing platforms in general, may increase crime and disorder in neighborhoods..." In other words, we want to know what wo…

Not originally me from here: https://old.reddit.com/r/badeconomics/comments/olwous/airbnb...

Re: Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out

#176
post #40

As this topic becomes more and more mainstream, I look forward to the numerous Twitter posts sure to come from Airbnb employees about the taxing social implications that come with working at Airbnb, how it weighs on their conscious, and and their ultimate decision to follow what’s right and leave. But only after their RSU’s have vested, of course. More seriously, I’ve been very disappointed with Airbnb recently. I sp…

I used to love AirBNB. As it became more popular the quality plummeted.

On Booking.com - I have very rarely been extremely disappointed when I arrive at a hotel and it does not meet expectations. On AirBNB - it's like 50:50. Additionally, there wasn't much supply of entire apartments / houses on places like Booking.com a few years ago. Now there is plenty.

I avoid AirBNB now. It's just not worth the uncertainty for me. When I go on a vacation - the last thing I want is to be disappointed.

Re: Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out

#177
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The solution is increased enforcement of the laws that make these illegal. Great idea. Let's fine AirBnB $50,000 per unit per year they knowingly rent out in NYC where they know such things are illegal. Don't go after the users (those using AirBnB) or the street dealers (those listing individual units). Go after the cartel that knowingly engages in illegal activity on a massive scale. That'll sort out the problem r…

Yeah, I think people have a very binary view of "criminal enterprises" vs "corporations", like they can only be people who dress in pin-stripe suits and carry tommy guns and say "lookee here, see" a lot, but a tech company can be a criminal enterprise just as much as anything else. Any company that makes money by violating the law, or encouraging it's habitual violation, is a criminal enterprise by definition (at lea…

yah, and i’ll just point out again[0] that firms try to get big to shield themselves from the consequences of their actions. we need regulations that aim to right-size organizations, rather than the grow-at-all-costs we have now.

[0]: a longer treatment i just posted as it relates to uber/lyft: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27914112

Re: Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out

#178

The article doesn't mention it - and I can't find it anywhere - but in any neighborhood what is the highest proportion of units that are short-term rentals. Five percent? Ten percent in the super touristy areas? I have no idea and even before the other flaws in the study I am skeptical than anything short of 20% would make an impact on any major attribute of an area. I see one stat in the paper that "40% of buildings…

> I am skeptical than anything short of 20% would make an impact on any major attribute of an area.

That's not how market pricing works for things like property since the supply is basically fixed. Changing the available supply by even 5% can easily cause the price to change massively.

Let's say there are 100 homes in an area and normally 95 of them are lived in and 5 are up for sale. Anyone wanting to move to the area has 5 homes to choose from, so competition will force the price down to some level acceptable to the sellers. Now let's say that instead of 5 homes for sale, 4 of the owners decide to keep them for Airbnb rentals instead of selling. Now there's only 1 home on the market so if you want to move there you have to pay whatever the owner is charging or else wait an indefinite period of time until another home opens up. So the price will rise to the highest level a would-be resident is willing to pay, even though we only changed the availability numbers by 4%. In effect, property pricing (including apartment rentals) is determined "at the edges" so to speak.

Re: Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Twice I've booked airbnb's in buildings where it was not allowed, and I didn't find out until picking up the keys. It's incredibly frustrating (one of building had concierge who gave us hard time). Next time, I'll just go with a traditional hotel to avoid the stress. Both times, I saw other groups of people with luggage coming in and out. So it likely was impacting multiple units in both buildings.

In fairness, the stress shouldn't be yours to sweat. If someone loses their rental to anti short-term leasing rules, that's really on the renter who's subletting it out to you via Airbnb.

It’s stressful to know you’re unwelcome

Re: Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out

#180

The AirBnb "effect" has directly led to increased home prices. A home turning a profit thus becomes more important than how its guests impact a neighborhood and community. Ignoring or spinning the social costs is a primary goal of Airbnb's PR machine. It has made many neighborhoods more transitory (i.e. less homesteading, more short term rentals). Acknowledge the social costs to community and it's not surprising to r…

I'd say AirBnb increases travel by decreasing the cost of housing. It increases supply of an otherwise dormant asset. I agree that to argue that it has no effect on privacy of neighborhoods or crime is naïve. On the other hand, lowering the cost of international travel[0] enables more people to travel and to be exposed to more of the world. This is, in my view, a positive. [0] San Francisco Milan Oct. 7-21: $522 on L…

From the AirBnB link:

> Often, in the weekend, It will be available the entire apartment in exclusive mode for the guest!

oh boy, a chance at "exclusive mode" is exactly what I want from my off-peak Milan vacation :^)

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