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Why I have zero faith in crypto venture capitalists

bennettftomlin.com

171–180 of 242 posts

Re: Why I have zero faith in crypto venture capitalists

#171

The author has faith in their ability to make money He has no faith in seeing their presence as validation in the project That’s an accurate view and he shouldn’t limit that to crypto VCs, its the same in other venture capital. Crypto just helped lower the distortion field, while non-crypto VCs just still have better marketing unbeknownst to him They all get discounted and preferential liquidity if they’re any good a…

I think that’s a very good comment. I don’t understand all parts of it though. What do you mean by - discounted and preferential liquidity? - perpetual block? - the entire last sentence? I’d love to get a deeper understanding

> - discounted and preferential liquidity?

Private Equity (PE) investors, of which Venture Capital (VC) firms are a subset, typically buy stakes in organizations that are different and better than what anyone else is able to own. Founders and employees in startups typically get common stock, VC firms typically get preferred stock, a completely separate class of shares that has more privileges than common stock. Even investors in the public markets after a stock market listing only get access to common stock. Not only do PE/VC get preferred stock, they often wind up with this exposure (whether it is via preferred stock or another instrument) at a price much lower than the current agreed upon or price derived valuation. Preferred stock further mitigate almost all risk by having covenants (contractual conditions) such "liquidity preferences", meaning that there are many events where a preferred stock holder gets paid first, meeting the amount of their initial investment or several multiples of their initial investment.

Even if exposure via preferred stock is not initially arranged, similar outcomes are entered into via convertible notes. This is a form of lending to an organization, giving them capital with no initial change to the cap table or share structure, which then converts at a later date to shares at almost any price. This is a way to circumvent buying in at market price as the convertible note acts like an options contract negotiated sometimes years in advance.

Analogous to a loan shark, almost any arrangement can be pledged and it can be very lucrative such that the loan shark almost never loses.

Now, these same concepts translate into the crypto market. The speculators are taking up all the spotlight but are playing a very different game, just like in the equities and bond markets the speculators are only providing liquidity for the funds to dump on them. And occasionally complaining the few times they notice, such as when a founder sells. The founder takes all the heat, while the VC/PE and Hedge funds get none and only profits. (None of them should get any heat or attention, or it should be evenly applied or the speculators should have considered the possibility of that and chosen not to trade that asset)

> - perpetual block [rewards]?

This is a concept somewhat unique to crypto currencies. Although it exists in currencies and equities under different names. It mostly means perpetual issuance, where more of the asset is created and this is exchangeable for cash as long as the market continues to post liquidity - or as long as the market keeps putting up cash to buy more of the asset.

But for a concrete example lets look at Helium. Google Ventures invested in crypto asset project Helium. Their private equity deal gives them the right to the block reward.

Like the Bitcoin network, the Helium network is a blockchain that appends new blocks to the chain, not dissimilar to additional nodes in a linked list. Like, Bitcoin, new Helium network uses the addition of blocks to also distribute new Helium tokens to the people that helped validate the existence of the new block. This is called the block reward. Like Bitcoin, Helium network participants are competing for the block reward and this competitive process decreases how much of the block reward any single participant receives.

Unlike Bitcoin, the block reward is also split with the private equity investors. The organization needed capital after pivoting several times before creating the Helium blockchain network, and nobody else would give them the time of day. So there are two portions of the block reward, one that people compete for and split amongst themselves, and a separate portion that is simply given to the private equity investors who maintain the same split forever (well till the year 2070 in this specific case), as there are no more private equity investors. Deals like this exist across the entire space.

> - the entire last sentence?

This was hard for me to articulate. But let's say you run across a VC / PE firm pitch deck, it might say "we've returned 500% in capital over X years" with a nice line chart showing how it beats the S&P500 and even Bitcoin price over the same time period. This might be their only way of showing broad relative accounting across the whole fund, but any particular investor in the fund actually might have much higher returns. 8,000% perhaps? This is due to the nature of the accounting. If a fund invested in Facebook in 2010, and you knew their IPO was going to happen in 2012 and make the fund billions of dollars, there is no way for you to invest into the fund in 2011 and earn that appreciation. If you invested in 2011 you would only get exposure to things the fund invested into after 2011, you wouldn't have exposure to the 2010 positions. The fund itself will have your capital and report a greater amount of assets under management (AUM), and by 2013, after the Facebook IPO, this greater AUM reduces what the whole fund can report as "performance". So you really need to understand the nature of the deal flow to determine if it is a good place to park your capital. You are more so hiring people to make deals, which is very different than hoping for some "trading genius" to analyze publicly traded markets full time. In a liquid fund, all the money is pooled into the same strategy that is ultimately priced at the whim of the market, so in those kinds of funds the performance is more easily seen in a pitch deck.

Re: Why I have zero faith in crypto venture capitalists

#172
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The mortgages were known to be essentially valueless, packaged up and resold anyway.. that's not what I'd consider having a 'real investment' at the heart of them. And the value of the real estate didn't cover the losses on the loans, prompting bailouts.

The mortgages didn't have positive value, but they had the actual homes as collateral which provided intrinsic value. A mortgage goes under and you have a house to short sell and recoup your losses. A cryptocurrency goes bust and you have nothing. It is the difference between losing 20% of your investment and losing 100% of your investment.

They literally threw the country into a recession? Also, the average person isn't writing mortgages.

A better example might be the average investor in a company. The average investor loses everything if a company goes under. Some creditors might get paid, and if they're lucky some 'preferred stock' holders might get something. But the average person (common stock) loses everything they put in..

I'm not really seeing much of a difference ? There is risk in everything...If you can't afford to lose, then don't bet?

Re: Why I have zero faith in crypto venture capitalists

#173
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

DeFi can't do much financing at all since smart contracts can only replicate a small subset of financial products which aren't very useful to begin with. Even calling it "finance" is a bit of a stretch.

> smart contracts can only replicate a small subset of financial products Why?

One of the reasons is that many financial contracts have provisions to seize assets under certain circumstances. This is not possible with DeFi because DeFi is built around "unconfiscatable" digital assets.

Re: Why I have zero faith in crypto venture capitalists

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the biggest disappointments to me about where we are with crypto is how the arc of the space supports the conventional wisdom about financial systems in general. There was this idea, back at the start, that crypto would bring a new era of low-fee finex (especially for people in countries suffering under exploitative currency manipulation). The dream was that you'd be able to freely and cheaply transfer digital…

Yeah - both Bitcoin and Ethereum have issues with transfer prices. I'm getting a lil worried about Cardano/ADA as well, as it appears its a 1 ADA fee for transfer. There is also the problem of transaction volume. No coin can currently handle anything close to the number of transactions the visa network can. Sadly, as much as I hate how its being pumped, that was one thing doge got right - cheap and fast. And for year…

Actually on Cardano the 1ada thing is just a minimum to utxo size. Currently tx costs for pure Ada transactions are 0.187 and they will be going down significantly in the future.

Re: Why I have zero faith in crypto venture capitalists

#175
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think of it like this. Various tokens give you certain types of exposures with different risk profiles. Yields are so high because of the risk. This really isn't so different from the centralized financial system where we have built complex structures (exotic derivatives, structured products, etc) to give you certain types of exposures. The difference is that DeFi is globally accessible and permissionless. Even if…

Except those "exotic derivatives, structured products, etc" do have real investments at the heart of them. What is at the heart of those "DeFi" investments? It seems to mostly be criminal and criminal-like behavior (this includes transferring money in ways the local government doesn't approve of which can admittedly be great if the local government is oppressive).

> (this includes transferring money in ways the local government doesn't approve of which can admittedly be great if the local government is oppressive).

That is a very weird take. It assumes that privacy is somehow always linked to illicite activities. Even if I'm buying candy, the government doesn't have any right to track it. Hiding my life from the government should not be automatically labeled criminal.

Re: Why I have zero faith in crypto venture capitalists

#176
post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah - both Bitcoin and Ethereum have issues with transfer prices. I'm getting a lil worried about Cardano/ADA as well, as it appears its a 1 ADA fee for transfer. There is also the problem of transaction volume. No coin can currently handle anything close to the number of transactions the visa network can. Sadly, as much as I hate how its being pumped, that was one thing doge got right - cheap and fast. And for year…

Actually on Cardano the 1ada thing is just a minimum to utxo size. Currently tx costs for pure Ada transactions are 0.187 and they will be going down significantly in the future.

Hmm - not sure I follow - the transfers were for more then 1 ADA, so wouldn't the utxo already be over 1 ADA? (and this was wallet to wallet, so I'd assume that would be a 'pure ada' transaction?

Anyway - glad to hear its going down. The Eth gas prices are really showing how much of a killer transaction costs can be. (On top of all the places that stopped taking Bitcoin when the xfers got so expensive)

Re: Why I have zero faith in crypto venture capitalists

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> except crypto has the potential to be more efficient and secure Except that's not clear at all. It's currently less efficient than electronic bank ledgers by many orders of magnitude, in any way you measure -- energy consumption, cost, speed, etc. And it's paradoxically less secure, as tons of successful hacks/thefts have proven. If my bank gets hacked, I'm still FDIC-insured. The courts will make me whole. Crypto…

Agreed on the FDIC (although not everyone banks in the US) part but “speed” is not an area where traditional banks beat the right crypto solutions. My wife and I just had a major fiasco trying to transfer mortgage payments from one major bank to another. Our credit score was damaged severely. I’ll spare you the details but the diagnosis was eventually determined to be “not enough time for clearance” as in I need to h…

> A friend who works in real estate foreclosures told me that everyone he works with is using stable coins now for this very reason.

How exactly does that work? Have trustees started accepting stablecoins for deposits? Are there auctions where you can pay with stablecoins? Or is it just for payments from foreclosure buyers to their representatives who make bids on the buyers' behalf?

Re: Why I have zero faith in crypto venture capitalists

#178
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The mortgages didn't have positive value, but they had the actual homes as collateral which provided intrinsic value. A mortgage goes under and you have a house to short sell and recoup your losses. A cryptocurrency goes bust and you have nothing. It is the difference between losing 20% of your investment and losing 100% of your investment.

They literally threw the country into a recession? Also, the average person isn't writing mortgages. A better example might be the average investor in a company. The average investor loses everything if a company goes under. Some creditors might get paid, and if they're lucky some 'preferred stock' holders might get something. But the average person (common stock) loses everything they put in.. I'm not really seeing…

>I'm not really seeing much of a difference ? There is risk in everything...If you can't afford to lose, then don't bet?

The difference is that intrinsic value provides a floor for potential losses and therefore reduces risk. If you can't understand why a worst case scenario of losing 20% of your investment is better than a worst case scenario of losing 100% of your investment, then I don't think you and I are going to have any constructive discussions about investing.

Re: Why I have zero faith in crypto venture capitalists

#179
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except those "exotic derivatives, structured products, etc" do have real investments at the heart of them. What is at the heart of those "DeFi" investments? It seems to mostly be criminal and criminal-like behavior (this includes transferring money in ways the local government doesn't approve of which can admittedly be great if the local government is oppressive).

> (this includes transferring money in ways the local government doesn't approve of which can admittedly be great if the local government is oppressive). That is a very weird take. It assumes that privacy is somehow always linked to illicite activities. Even if I'm buying candy, the government doesn't have any right to track it. Hiding my life from the government should not be automatically labeled criminal.

I think it is more your interpretation of my take is weird because I never said anything approaching what you are suggesting.

You want privacy, buy in cash. Most cryptocurrencies don't provide added privacy and they usually end up decreasing privacy since all transactions are on the public ledger.

The type of thing I am talking about is people transferring money out of an economy in ways that are forbidden by the government. Governments can want to prevent this for legitimate reasons like trying to stop money laundering and tax evasion. They can also do it for illegitimate reasons like the government trying to retain authoritarian control over its citizens or to prop up a failing currency. Either way it would mean the transfers are illegal, but not all of them are necessarily immoral. That is why I dubbed it "criminal-like behavior".

Re: Why I have zero faith in crypto venture capitalists

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't go and claim the vast majority of top projects are essentially scams, that's just spreading false information.

Name any major project and I can tell you why it's a scam. Bitcoin: Uses the electricity of a country to process 2 transactions per second. Layer 2 solutions such as Lightning Network have some significant drawbacks which make them unpractical and vulnerable to multiple attacks. They've been trying and talking it up for years - No results. Ethereum: Doesn't scale. The entire ecosystem (including all ERC20 tokens) tog…

And I can respond to your "scam" claims:

> Bitcoin: Uses the electricity of a country to process 2 transactions per second. Layer 2 solutions such as Lightning Network have some significant drawbacks which make them unpractical and vulnerable to multiple attacks. They've been trying and talking it up for years - No results.

Can you be more specific about the drawbacks with layer 2 solutions such as lightning network? I use lightning from both the business and the consumer side, and from my perspective, it works just fine. I am able to make payments with negligible fees that settle instantly, and people are able to pay me (business) without any real problems. At this point, the vast majority of Bitcoin transactions I do settle on a layer 2. Frankly, it just kinda "works".

> Ethereum: Doesn't scale. The entire ecosystem (including all ERC20 tokens) together cannot process more than 30 transactions per second. New ERC20 tokens have to pay the same HUGE (e.g. $20 per transaction) fees as the mainchain; all tokens slow each other down (compete for resources from each other and drive up each other's transaction fees). They said that sharding was essentially ready years ago but now they've basically canceled it (or 'put it on the backburner' as they like to call it) in favor of extremely complex and vulnerable layer-2 ZK-Rollups solutions which are completely unproven (we don't know what will happen when many projects start adopting rollups; expensive on-chain interactions still need to happen).

What makes ZK-rollups "extremely complex and vulnerable"? And perhaps touch on optimistic rollups as well (since these are about to launch and will have dramatic increases in throughput as well)?

It seems to me that you are making grandiose claims of problems without any real evidence.

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