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Effective altruism is not effective

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171–180 of 248 posts

Re: Effective altruism is not effective

#171

I think the biggest problem with the Effective Altruism movement is that it has become too tied up with people who like to debate things, especially topics like AI Risk. Optimizing the effectiveness of one's charitable donations is a reasonable goal. Doing basic research to choose efficient and effective charities makes sense. However, there are large parts of the EA community that have gone off the deep end of debat…

The focus on AI risk is because it seems to be the #1 long-term existential risk, so it has essentially an infinite payoff.

But we have idea how to solve it (it's not tractable) and future concerns should be discounted, so most people in EA I've met don't think it's the best use of effort.

Re: Effective altruism is not effective

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that assumes that 1. A significant portion of the people who want to get rich to help people actually get rich 2. Once they are rich they actually help 3. The process of getting rich doesn't make others poorer. (example does Bezos donating some portion of his wealth do better than him actually paying people more, or have the part owners of amazon?) All these points are far from obviously true. In fact I can come…

Regarding (1) - Becoming rich isn't part of the premise of EA. Getting a $100k job is often sufficient to have extra cash that can save real lives. Regarding (2) - There are examples of successful EA in action. See the FTX founder. Regarding (3) - Getting rich can't make people poorer ( on net ) unless you're exploiting negative externalities, which we would both agree need to be addressed by government. It can trans…

> Getting rich can't make people poorer (on net) unless you're exploiting negative externalities,

You mean, the easiest ways to get rich? You have to be pretty principled not to take those.

Re: Effective altruism is not effective

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not necessarily, most wealth isn’t zero-sum. Everyone benefits from a new miracle drug, or a new industrial technique, even those who become rich from it, and those who don’t. The modern world compared 1700 is a great example on joe wealth can (but doesn’t always, see Saudi Arabia) benefit all.

The miracle drug is a good example. Sure everyone benefits if it is not expensive. Take the Covid vaccines for example, there are many locations (e.g. In India) that could produce vaccines, however the companies (and the Western countries) do not want to open up the patents, even though we would all (even us in the 1st world) benefit, because eliminating covid as quick as possible would reduce the chance of mutations…

A lot of people seem to think that Bill Gates' influence is largely responsible for the Oxford vaccine being patent-encumbered.

Re: Effective altruism is not effective

#174

I think the biggest problem with the Effective Altruism movement is that it has become too tied up with people who like to debate things, especially topics like AI Risk. Optimizing the effectiveness of one's charitable donations is a reasonable goal. Doing basic research to choose efficient and effective charities makes sense. However, there are large parts of the EA community that have gone off the deep end of debat…

The focus on AI risk is because it seems to be the #1 long-term existential risk, so it has essentially an infinite payoff. But we have idea how to solve it (it's not tractable) and future concerns should be discounted, so most people in EA I've met don't think it's the best use of effort.

> The focus on AI risk is because it seems to be the #1 long-term existential risk, so it has essentially an infinite payoff.

You can read "AI risk" as "not going to Hell" here; rationalism is just a new religion focused on worshipping what SF writers think computers are going to get up to in the future (Roko's basilisk). There's not much reason to believe an evil AI out to conquer the world is a self-consistent idea.

Re: Effective altruism is not effective

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a common philosophical problem. EA fits in a philosophical framework broadly known as utilitarianism (which is also popular among rationalists, a group known to be fans of EA). Buddhism's ideas of moral philosophy often lie in a mixture of what is commonly known as Divine Will Ethics and Virtue Ethics. Utilitarianism is quite popular among modern STEM discourse, but there are moral alternatives out there that…

> (e.g., in the trolley problem, what happens if you save the 3 people over the 1 person, but one of those 3 people ends up becoming (or is) a dictator who orchestrates a genocide.) Presumably by this logic, you'd have no opinion on whether a midwife should save a newborn baby's life, as it's unknowable whether the baby will one day orchestrate a genocide?

I'll bite. Probability comes into play. The vast majority of babies do not in future orchestrate a genocide, but instead live lives worth living, and in turn contribute in some way to shared human progress and wellbeing. So the expected value of the baby's life is positive, the baby should be saved.

The very low chance of a future genocide does not weigh highly in this decision.

Re: Effective altruism is not effective

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but does not himself provide an argument for it, just an assertion that political change is "the most obvious and powerful tool we have." (I think that's far from obvious!) Argentina, Venezuela and Zimbabwe are basically nations that destroyed themselves through bad political reforms. If there had been a way to prevent those reforms you could have prevented millions of people from slipping into poverty and needing…

Countries, not nations. There are many nations living in Argentina and Venezuela, some do have political representation, some do not. e.g.: the Mapuche nation in Argentina lacks political representation. Then, Argentina is working extremely well, except for themselves, that is. They are in a treadmill of unpayable debt that works in the following way: - The left is tasked with buying people's complacency with borrowe…

Have they tried selling themselves back to Spain?

Re: Effective altruism is not effective

#177

I think the biggest problem with the Effective Altruism movement is that it has become too tied up with people who like to debate things, especially topics like AI Risk. Optimizing the effectiveness of one's charitable donations is a reasonable goal. Doing basic research to choose efficient and effective charities makes sense. However, there are large parts of the EA community that have gone off the deep end of debat…

If you are unclear between AMF (bed nets) and AI Risk, and you find AI Risk dubious, then donate to AMF. It sounds like you're complaining that your choices have been pared down to two, and you don't like one of them.

I think the pared down bit is important: the whole point behind EA is to increase giving to some types of organization at the expense of giving to other types of organization based on success metrics. So if leading EA initiatives are dissuading (say) giving to electrify Africa because of a lack of efficacy data or wealth of existing funding, they might event be having a quantitative negative impact on those particular causes. If they instead promote an already exceptionally well-funded AI research project their friends work for whose impact on Microsoft's share price is much easier to quantify than their impact on preventing Hypothetical Cyberpunk Future, then that's a questionable/bad decision under their own utilitarian framework. Even if they're generating enormous interest in philanthropy and analytical rigour overall, the bit where they might be discouraging people from choosing better causes than the ones they choose is a problem.

Ultimately people have a right to donate their money to the causes they want whether it's having a quantifiable impact on reducing human suffering, taking moonshots on interesting speculative stuff or funding their ex-roomate's creative pursuits, but the whole point of the E in EA is to prioritise the former over the latter.

If leading EA organizations are inconsistent in the standards they apply, that's a problem for those particular organizations, and if it turns out that future AI risk and basic services for poor people tomorrow simply aren't readily comparable, that's a problem for the whole EA optimization framework.

Re: Effective altruism is not effective

#178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Countries, not nations. There are many nations living in Argentina and Venezuela, some do have political representation, some do not. e.g.: the Mapuche nation in Argentina lacks political representation. Then, Argentina is working extremely well, except for themselves, that is. They are in a treadmill of unpayable debt that works in the following way: - The left is tasked with buying people's complacency with borrowe…

Have they tried selling themselves back to Spain?

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Re: Effective altruism is not effective

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's some nonsense method of calculating. It's somewhere on the site. Kiva provides zero-interest loans to µfinance partners, they charge interest to the actual guy who wants to buy a cow, then return the principal to Kiva who gives you back the money. So yeah, Kiva provides zero-interest loans, but the cow guy getting the money is paying like 20%-80% APR. I think it was their partner Credituyo that was patently ridi…

There are two reasons why the loans are 80% APR, either because lots of them fail to repay (which goes against the 96% repayment rate) or because the recipients of the loan generate enough value to justify paying 80% APR. (unlikely because that would have attracted a colossal amount of investors and reduced yields back to the single digits that are available to other markets). Honestly, looking at it, it would be bet…

The main reason is that administering small loans is expensive: costs of administering/chasing the debt don't really scale down just because the loan itself is only $50, and most of these entities seek to turn a profit too. Additionally there's a suspicion the middlemen sometimes use other loans' interest payments to cover defaults since nonrepayment makes them look bad to Kiva lenders.

Zidisha (YC14, nonprofit) cut out the middleman to do pure P2P lending in the developing world at much lower rates but at least when I was on the platform had significant issues with defaults even with local volunteers helping with chasing (and some defaults definitely weren't planned).

Re: Effective altruism is not effective

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regarding (1) - Becoming rich isn't part of the premise of EA. Getting a $100k job is often sufficient to have extra cash that can save real lives. Regarding (2) - There are examples of successful EA in action. See the FTX founder. Regarding (3) - Getting rich can't make people poorer ( on net ) unless you're exploiting negative externalities, which we would both agree need to be addressed by government. It can trans…

> Getting rich can't make people poorer (on net) unless you're exploiting negative externalities, You mean, the easiest ways to get rich? You have to be pretty principled not to take those.

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