I see quite a bit of disappointing talk that disregards the contents of the article, here. Namely, the author names one sort of bias that led 'Very Smart People' to give an outsized likelihood of Trump winning: >I remember thinking at the time that this particular opinion of his was over-confident, perhaps even a result of over-internalizing the heuristic that if a viewpoint seems clever and contrarian then it is lik…
Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
171–180 of 191 posts
Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
#172I think what we’re seeing is that the set of people making bets on political outcomes leans sharply Republican. It’s selection bias. There may be a broader message there about representation too: if you are sitting in a meeting and 8 people think something is going to happen, but you disagree, and they are all upper class men (for example), and you’re a lower class woman, you probably have a better than 1 in 9 chance…
You should start a quant firm employing only lower class women, and use their insight to decide which companies to invest in. If your hypothesis is correct, you'll be filthy rich in no time at all.
Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
#173Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Either people who get away with it undetected in the very short term are so good that they manage to suppress all evidence completely and it never comes out (which seems an implausible binodality in outcomes) Why do you think that's implausible? What evidence of election fraud would you expect to be left behind that would be difficult to dispose of? >is allowed to stand by corrupt institutions despite being widely d…
This isn't someone slashing your tires overnight when you are parked on a street. It involves thousands of people directly and an extreme amount of information collecting and statistics analysis.
Happens only in the ghettos tbh
Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
#174Say what you will about cryptocurrencies, it sounds like a damn interesting area in which to be spending your time as an engineer, even if 90% of the stuff ends up being total crap or a fraud.
> even if 90% of the stuff ends up being total crap or a fraud Working on something that turns out to be total crap or a fraud is actually very demoralizing, not to mention not great for your resume. In the distributed systems space, I've interviewed a lot of burnt out engineers who thought they were getting in on the next big blockchain company that turned out to be a couple founders use blockchain as a get rich qui…
Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
#175Earlier quoted context omitted.
If it is possible to carry out election rigging conspiracies in the US, then how can we be so confident that no such conspiracies were carried out by people that viciously hate the former president? Surely if it is possible for conspirators to get away with it in other countries, and there is no magical means of preventing it here, then it's possible for them to get away with it here as well. They have courts and inv…
The threshold isn’t just “it’s possible”. There needs to be some evidence. All sorts of things are possible, doesn’t mean we go around thinking they are true, or even assume they are potentially true. It’s not Impossible I’ve murdered someone, doesn’t mean I should be presumed a murderer.
Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
#176Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Either people who get away with it undetected in the very short term are so good that they manage to suppress all evidence completely and it never comes out (which seems an implausible binodality in outcomes) Why do you think that's implausible? What evidence of election fraud would you expect to be left behind that would be difficult to dispose of? >is allowed to stand by corrupt institutions despite being widely d…
This isn't someone slashing your tires overnight when you are parked on a street. It involves thousands of people directly and an extreme amount of information collecting and statistics analysis.
Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
#177Earlier quoted context omitted.
This isn't someone slashing your tires overnight when you are parked on a street. It involves thousands of people directly and an extreme amount of information collecting and statistics analysis.
> This isn't someone slashing your tires overnight when you are parked on a street. Happens only in the ghettos tbh
This is about the likelihood of something occurring with no evidence left behind.
Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
#178Earlier quoted context omitted.
> This isn't someone slashing your tires overnight when you are parked on a street. Happens only in the ghettos tbh
I think you missed the point to a pretty extreme degree here. This is about the likelihood of something occurring with no evidence left behind.
Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
#179Earlier quoted context omitted.
My understanding was based on articles like https://workdayminnesota.org/court-slams-walmarts-use-of-dea... . Where Walmart was being sued specifically because there were perverse incentives and what they did was against various state laws. As to your case, Walmart thought that it could deduct the premiums. It turns out that it could not. Walmart also thought that it could create and collect them under Georgia law. I…
Thank for adding more info about some of the lawsuits, but you haven't given any evidence for the key claim you made in your original post: >...Concrete example, Walmart took out life insurance on its employees because they were betting that their horrible working conditions made people more likely to die than the insurance companies thought. I have seen no evidence that is why Walmart instituted the corporate policy…
Insurance is a regular payment in return for a large payment upon catastrophe. The insurer sets the price such that they expect to make money. That means that it should be a money losing proposition for the insured. The insured is willing to pay for insurance either because it is required by law (for example car insurance), or because they cannot afford the risk of catastrophic losses.
It therefore makes sense for companies to take out insurance on valuable assets that they can't easily replace as a risk mitigation strategy. Valuable assets, including key employees. But if everything is priced correctly, insurance is still a money-losing proposition for companies. And therefore anything that companies can cover by keeping sufficient cash reserves and credit lines, they should. In particular for low-level employees, death is merely a minor contribution to normal turnover, and companies should find that they save themselves money by self-covering that cost without using insurance. And furthermore companies should only seek necessary insurance for real risks. Which means that valuable assets, including key employees, should only be insured for the company's expected loss.
There is one major exception to this pricing rule. And that exception is when the entity (person or company) seeking insurance believes that they have more knowledge than the insurer. Then they may buy insurance as a bet against the insurer. The history of insurance is filled with examples. And there is a constant cat and mouse game where insurers try to protect themselves against this risk, while still providing insurance at a competitive price.
One famous example is that unscrupulous ship-owners used to buy ships in bad condition, overload them with a valuable cargo, insure it to the hilt, then set them off into the sunset knowing full well that the ship was likely to sink with all hands on board. The fabled insurer Lloyds of London got was the first insurer to solve this problem. They would draw the "water line" around a ship that was loaded and quoted insurance rates based on where that line was. Which meant that they didn't sell insurance to unscrupulous ship-owners, and could offer much better rates to scrupulous ones.
Another example is that people really do buy insurance on a spouse, then try to kill said spouse for the insurance. Therefore insurance companies have convinced governments to pass "slayer rules" that allow them to not pay out life insurance if there is any hint that it might have been murder.
Now back to dead peasant policies. Whatever the details of the tax breaks that made Walmart think it could be profitable, if insurers have correctly priced the insurance policies, then Walmart is virtually guaranteed to lose money on those policies. The reason why is that insurance is a zero sum game, and insurers are in it to generate a profit for themselves. While the loss of low-level workers is a tragedy, Walmart has the reserves to cover its own financial risks. And certainly should not have an incentive to over-insure those workers to the tune of a decade of full-time pay. (And then maintain said insurance after the workers had stopped working for Walmart and there was no possible loss to Walmart from their death.)
Therefore the only logical reason for Walmart to buy all of those policies is that Walmart believes that it has more information than the insurers on the likelihood that its workers will die. And therefore the only logical reason to buy that insurance is as a bet that insurers are systemically mispricing those policies. If they don't have that information, why else would they spend billions on what is supposed to be a money-losing proposition? Insurers knew this, and that is EXACTLY the gamble that insurers were describing in their brief.
The various laws against dead peasant policies were passed on this theory. They exist for the same reason that slayer rules exist. Because insurers convinced politicians that it is a bad idea to give people a financial incentive to see other people die. And politicians agreed that this made sense.
The lawsuit that Walmart filed was not because Walmart disagrees with this characterization of its behavior. It is because Walmart was not informed by the insurers of tax laws that meant that it went from a straight bet about who better knew the statistics on Walmart's workers, to a guaranteed money-losing proposition for Walmart. (Because whether or not Walmart won the bet, it wasn't going to win to the tune of how much it had to pay in taxes.)
Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
#180Earlier quoted context omitted.
Thank for adding more info about some of the lawsuits, but you haven't given any evidence for the key claim you made in your original post: >...Concrete example, Walmart took out life insurance on its employees because they were betting that their horrible working conditions made people more likely to die than the insurance companies thought. I have seen no evidence that is why Walmart instituted the corporate policy…
To answer that, let's talk about what insurance is for, and why it exists. Insurance is a regular payment in return for a large payment upon catastrophe. The insurer sets the price such that they expect to make money. That means that it should be a money losing proposition for the insured. The insured is willing to pay for insurance either because it is required by law (for example car insurance), or because they can…
>...Therefore the only logical reason for Walmart to buy all of those policies is that Walmart believes that it has more information than the insurers on the likelihood that its workers will die.
No, as I stated before, all the evidence indicates this was mostly done due to perceived favorable tax treatment:
>…Under a typical arrangement, buyers of the insurance pay a fraction of the premium up front and borrow the rest from the insurer. The insurer profits because the interest rate on the loan is higher than the rate of return credited to the buyer on the policy’s cash value. The buying company profits by deducting the interest payments from its taxable income (if eligible to do so under the 2006 law) and because life insurance proceeds are not taxable. Left holding the bag for those profits is Uncle Sam.
https://www.cfo.com/tax/2014/01/dead-peasant-insurance-still...
Of course this could be profitable for a corporation with a large number of workers if it was allowed. Little up-front money, deduct the interest costs and no tax on the death benefit at a time when corporate tax rates were about 35%. The IRS went after these insurance policies and congress also changed the law.
The cases against Walmart have been tried about this use of insurance in many jurisdictions and you haven't shown any evidence of Walmart making a business decision based on a calculation that "...their horrible working conditions made people more likely to die than the insurance companies thought".