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Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

theguardian.com

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Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#171

Post by cptskippy »

ghaff wrote: post #147
sandworm101 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla superchargers take about 40 minutes to deliver an 80% charge. Call that a "full" tank. A gas pump can do the same in about 5 minutes (probably less). So to charge/fill the same number of cars per hour as one gas pump you need 8 superchargers. That's a significant increase in real estate area needed. Another approach: A top-end Tesla supercharger delivers around 250kW. So eight of those would be 2000kW or 2 Mega…

More to the point, I'm not sitting around for 40 minutes at a charging station even once a week to get recharged (and it will be more frequent than that for many). Especially given that offices may be a less regular thing, people need ways to charge when their cars are parked wherever they're parked when they're at home. Even if they eat out a bit that's not a substitute.

What if you could plug in where ever you park your car? You don't need to stop somewhere for 40 minutes if you're able to charge every where you go.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#172

Post by ChuckMcM »

hntrader wrote: post #167

If a country relies only on oil and gas for electricity, are EVs any better than petrol-powered cars as far as emissions go?

Yes. If all your cars get the maximum use out of the energy in the petroleum and you provide atmospheric pollution controls on the power plants that eliminate smog/particulates then you have a net win, even if your total energy from petroleum doesn't change.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#174

Post by zizee »

sandworm101 wrote: post #51

Maybe in the UK, but not where I am. It was -26 this morning. Batteries don't handle such temperatures well. And the nearest civilian airport is 400km away. I haven't seen a single all-electric car in my town since I moved here over a year ago.

Honest question: what percentage of the worlds population live in areas with such conditions?

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#175

Post by paperwasp42 »

abeppu wrote: post #166
fuoqi wrote: post #140

I wonder if electrical grids are really prepared for mass adoption of EV. For example, UK is already quite reliant on the HVDC link [0] from France. In 2016 it got damaged resulting in a reduced capacity, which has caused serious concerns at the time. And it's not only about power generation, it's also quite probable that a lot of existing power lines would have to be updated to satisfy a higher demand for electrical…

I think the other side of the coin is also interesting: If we're smart, could we use EVs to make the grid more resilient? Could we be thinking of EVs both as transportation and as flexible and hyperlocal power storage. E.g. parked EVs could reverse-meter if there's very high power demand, and absorb cheap (or negative cost) power when it's really windy in Texas, etc.

Not sure why you're getting downvoted, because this is a valid idea that's being seriously researched.

Will it offset the surge of electric usage caused by mass adoption of EVs? Probably not. But could it help? Very likely, and I think ideas like this need to be pursued.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#176

Post by jtaillon »

hntrader wrote: post #167

If a country relies only on oil and gas for electricity, are EVs any better than petrol-powered cars as far as emissions go?

Yes, see this plot from IEA: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/comparative-l...

This is as of 2018, and one would expect that the grid will continue to get cleaner as time goes on, which means the BEV options will get cleaner as well.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#177

Post by nightfly »

hntrader wrote: post #167

If a country relies only on oil and gas for electricity, are EVs any better than petrol-powered cars as far as emissions go?

Yes, because ICE efficiency is so bad you'd still probably reduce emissions caused by mover vehicle use by 30-40%.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#178

Post by turtlebits »

Mass adoption won't happen until charging infrastructure improves dramatically.

As a non-Tesla owner, I have had the worst experiences at fast charging stations - I'd say 70% of the time at Electrify America stations (they have the most fast charging coverage), I run into a charger that doesn't work and waste time moving my car and retrying another bay. (I've even experienced a station with 5 bays where none of them would charge - yet they all showed available).

I don't even bother with L2 stations as I'm never in a place long enough to get any meaningful charge out of one - and I'm not going to go out of my way to a location that has one.

With all that said, taking a long trip is out of the question for me.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#179

Post by buran77 »

Gwypaas wrote: post #137
0xffff2 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>So long as "everybody" truly believes the Governments threat to effectively ban ICE sales after 2030 Will anyone believe that though? Given the propensity of virtually all governments worldwide to do less than promised and the overwhelming amount of infrastructure still needed, I don't take this date seriously at all.

The EU legislation regarding CO2 emissions has teeth, and no respite has been given. This is the reason so many PHEVs are being introduced lately, they are about the only way to comply except pure BEVs. Sure, UK is not EU anymore but the legislation is felt worldwide. Before 2020: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/cars_... From 2020 onwards: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/…

> they are about the only way to comply except pure BEVs

On paper. In reality [0][1] unless you drive all electric all or most of the time the actual, real life CO2 emissions are far worse. Because now you have an ICE engine that hauls around an extra battery and electric motor, occasionally inefficiently charging the battery by burning gasoline.

Many (most?) PHEVs owners don't have charging at home (reason to buy hybrid), and the rest of the charging infrastructure is far more inconvenient to use than a gas station. Depending on where you live it may also prove more expensive to drive electric. Add to this the small battery and you see why most of them are driven mostly in ICE mode.

This being said, if I were in the market for a new car I really wouldn't care about what the government promises will happen in 2030. I'd look around to see what makes sense for me. Is the government doing anything about it? Are they heavily investing in making this a reality (new chargers, new electrical infrastructure, etc.)? Talk is cheap.

[0] https://theicct.org/publications/phev-real-world-usage-sept2...

[1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/05/revealed-plug-in...

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#180

Post by mywittyname »

davidhbolton wrote: post #111
mywittyname wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If massive amounts of people move to electric vehicles gas prices will fall. This will make combustion vehicles more attractive. If gas prices fall any lower due to demand, then production capacity will probably disappear permanently, leading to shortages and a huge, long-term rise in price. Oil pumps aren't like taps that can be shut off and powered back on demand. They basically need to be operated continuously b…

I think the petrochemical industry might disagree with you there. Sure petrol/diesel for transport will decline but pharmaceuticals, plastics and many more items are made that way and they are not going away. This site has a big list. https://www.ranken-energy.com/index.php/products-made-from-p...

Per your own link, 50% of a barrel of oil goes to gasoline production. If by, "ultra-low sulfur distillate", they mean diesel fuel for road going vehicles, that increases the percentage dedicated to motor vehicle transportation to 75%.

That is pretty staggering. If automotive transportation consumes somewhere between 50-75% of crude oil production, then the fallout from the reduction in that market is going to be very significant. There's no way that growth in the ammonia and rubber boots sector is going to be enough to capture the production excess left by EVs.

Your link has me pretty well convinced that the gasoline market collapse will be swift and extreme.

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