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Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

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171–180 of 456 posts

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#171
post #167

Some country in Africa is going to have a civil war.

Quite an easy prediction to make given Ethiopia is already in the middle of a civil war

edit: It's been so long, but we should remember Libya, Mali, northern Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo. Liberia and South Africa are stable though, and most African countries merely languish in peaceful obscurity.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#173

Aliens will make contact.

So, that government spending bill that the most recent COVID stimulus is included in, that Trump signed a week ago? Someone snuck in a section that various intelligence agencies are to publish reports on any information they have on UFOs within 180 days of it going into effect.

https://www.newsweek.com/ufo-report-government-agencies-180-...

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would interest rates rise? They're completely manipulated. If interest rates rising would kill businesses, then they will be manipulated not to rise.

Because the choice will be interest rates or inflation

But it’s been made very clear every major economy wants inflation. Interest rates ain’t never going back up, ask Japan.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#176
Alphabet, Facebook and Twitter will be beat up enough from anti-trust and legislation to shake investor confidence considerably. Amazon, Apple and Microsoft will emerge unscathed.

The merits of this I will leave to the reader, but there has surely been a long-lasting shift in public opinion against social media due to the unrelenting assault of Trumpism. The irony of this assault being launched from twitter.com/realdonaldtrump is not lost on me.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#177

More serial killers and serial rapists identified and caught via genetic testing.

I assume this is hinting about the case of "Joseph James DeAngelo" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_James_DeAngelo), also known as the Golden State Killer. This year, I read Michelle McNamara's book "I'll Be Gone in the Dark: One Woman's Obsessive Search for the Golden State Killer". Highly recommended!

As I understand, it is relatively easy to cross-contaminate samples. How is this risk reduced? Or do all people who handled the biological evidence also get DNA tested to exclude themselves?

And do all US states and federal level courts treat DNA equally. More interesting to me: Might we see a case where a criminal can be tied to the crime by biological evidence, but there is a court system "gotcha" that allows them to remain free?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

inflation will start being a problem If that happens then interest rates will rise, which will be very, very bad for both businesses and home owners. If it happened quickly enough it'd make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

The US isn't going to start facing meaningful consumer inflation for the exact same reason Japan didn't / hasn't. And for the same reason all the Keynesian economists have been hilariously baffled by Japan's situation for decades now, they'll be entirely baffled (and have been for the past decade) by the US and its 0% rates not spurring rampant inflation. Their dogmatic, borderline religious, belief in their wrong id…

> No field has more idiots than economics.

Alternative explanation: economics is hard & illusory superiority is a thing.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really?! That’s stone cold.

Apparently it’s true. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-biden-idUSKBN0... > "I said, 'Mr. Prime Minister, I'm looking into your eyes, and I don’t think you have a soul,'" Biden told the magazine. "He looked back at me, and he smiled, and he said, 'We understand one another.'"

And then everyone on line behind him applauded.

The source is Joe Biden. There is absolutely no way that actually went down as he described it.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#180

BABIES! So many COVID-induced lockdown babies! I've had so many people, many who were either done with having children, and those who weren't planning to for a while yet, announce their pregnancies. Wonder if there are any companies I can invest in to cash in on this?

That doesnt really seem to be the case so far https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/canada/canada-s-population-gro... maybe when its all over we will have a baby boom with everyone being happy.
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