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San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

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Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#171

Post by jeffbee »

txsoftwaredev wrote: post #161
jeffbee wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's exactly right. The harm to the economy is not caused by the countermeasures, it is caused by the disease. If you don't beat the disease, you wreck the economy.

"Roughly 30,000 restaurants have already closed for good across the country, with more than 110,000 expected to shutter in the next month, according to estimates by the National Restaurant Association. ". How did a virus cause businesses to close permanently? This doesn't happen during flu season or even with the h1n1 pandemic.

H1N1 2009 only killed 12000 Americans. COVID-19 killed 12000 Americans last week. People are avoiding restaurants because their own self-interest keeps them away. They don't want to get a fatal disease that's already killed 1‰ of the country. This aversion has little or nothing to do with government directives.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#172

Post by simonbarker87 »

matz1 wrote: post #146
mike_d wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In most places, hospital are not overloaded If you speak to any doctor or nurse they will disagree with you. While we might not be at a breaking point for number of beds, the staff that have to put themselves in harms way do have the option to just quit. When that starts happening in mass we are all screwed.

Yes I do have couple of nurse friend and doctor, they all thought lockdown measure is way overkill and all this has been greatly overblown. Not to mention the excessive ppe measure/protocol they now have to adopt, its only made their job harder.

I know many doctors and nurses and they are exhausted, over worked and thankful it didn’t get worse than it was

To say that lock down was needless because the worst case scenario isn’t proof the lock down wasn’t needed. It is evidence (not proof mind) that the lockdowns worked.

It’s like saying you didn’t need to save money because you never ran out of money so you didn’t need the savings in the first place

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#173

Post by gnicholas »

dehrmann wrote: post #155
gnicholas wrote: post #119

This will provide an interesting experiment since San Mateo County and Santa Clara County are adjacent, demographically similar, and are pursuing different courses of action. But analysis will be complicated by the porous border. There will presumably be even more people coming into SMC from SCC to patronize businesses that are more open than those in SCC.

> demographically similar Not really. Santa Clara county has San Jose, a city of 1M. San Mateo's largest city is Daly City (100k). San Mateo county also has a more rural and isolated coast. San Mateo county is also a lot whiter.

Comparisons are never perfect, but we will surely be able to learn from seeing what happens. Also, it's not as if the only data that will come in will be at the county level. Menlo Park and Palo Alto are virtually identical from a demographic perspective and will be following different rules. We'll be able to see how their reported numbers differ. For example, we'll be able to track the case counts in MP and PA school districts.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#174

Post by AlphaSite »

jeffbee wrote: post #108
remote_phone wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Places like UK did a hard lockdown for 6 weeks and kept schools open. It completely worked. Yes, kids can transmit the virus, but it appears that as long as the ADULTS limit their interaction with other adults, kids have only a limited way of encountering infections.

Didn't UK have either the worst or second-worst outcome among all European nations?

Yes, but it doesn't really disprove the assertion that lockdown's work. It more proves that the other approaches they tried either dont work or weren't applied effectively.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#175

Post by 01100011 »

xfitm3 wrote: post #60
01100011 wrote: post #45

I hope when this is all over we can have an apolitcal discussion and learn some lessons for next time. I appreciate the statement, and it's nice to see the reasoning of a health official laid bare. That said, it seems to be an inconsistent message and not something I think a health official should be putting out in the midst of a politicized pandemic rife with misinformation. I really wish we had a functioning centra…

> I really wish we had a functioning central government to help coordinate local responses, assist with data collection and monitoring, disseminate clear information, etc, etc. Absolutely not. The federal government has no authority to force states to close and this is a good thing.

Are you replying to me? Did I suggest the feds should force the states to do anything?

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#176

Post by babesh »

remote_phone wrote: post #114
mlyle wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Like is missing a year of 4th grade going to be a problem for anyone? Yah. There's a whole big subset of the population that barely manages to stick with school at baseline. Educational interruption in other circumstances has been shown to have bad outcomes. We're trying to do better this time, but the school system as a whole is overtaxed. I'm a middle school teacher. Even with best practices for remote education,…

Of course you will see negative impacts this year. Online education sucks. But assuming kids are back in school September 2022, will there be lasting effects? No. If there are gaps, they will be addressed because all kids will have suffered the same thing, it’s not like the one kid who got mono and missed 3 months of school by herself.

This is bad reasoning. If everyone produces less by the same amount, then even if you produce no less than the next person, the overall production has gone down.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#177

Post by txsoftwaredev »

xfitm3 wrote: post #48
gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only trick is how you convince everyone to comply. Translate that to: how do we crush the poor, destroy livelihoods and deprive children of education? Compliance, knave!

I despise lockdowns and my state won't enforce them. I am so thankful to be in a level headed state. Forcing people into poverty is just as bad or even worse as getting a virus. In my area beyond after the initial reopening its business as normal. Everyone is having parties and celebrating, living a normal life.

I'm thankful to be in state with limited covid rules. I started working out three months ago at a gym and have lost 15 lbs. I would have easily gained that if I was forced to stay home.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#178

Post by jacobolus »

babesh wrote: post #167
jacobolus wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Other Bay Area counties are seeing numbers skyrocket over the past 6 weeks, and want to act decisively now while they have the best chance to prevent a catastrophic outcome. In SF case counts have been doubling about every 2 weeks; we started from a low baseline (relative to most of the rest of the USA) but another few doublings and we’ll be in huge trouble. The state-level mandates are timed to be reactive instead o…

Stop putting it all on the federal government. It’s also state government’s fault. California only thinks in terms of lockdowns even after all these months. Also look at people’s personal behaviors. I saw more and more people walking around without masks recently. Downtown Burlingame was shockingly bad.

> California only thinks in terms of lockdowns

What are you thinking of? Personally I think we could do much better at hiring contact tracers, getting test sites into vulnerable neighborhoods, doing general community outreach, making sure public-facing workers have sufficient PPE, figuring out how to get infected people places to isolate away from their households, protecting incarcerated people, etc.

But historically the USA has been heavily reliant on the CDC and the federal government more generally to muster resources and coordinate responses. When leadership is entirely absent (and indeed, federal officials are out lying about the pandemic every day), states have a tough time picking up the slack.

> look at people’s personal behaviors. I saw more and more people walking around without masks recently

From what I understand, a major goal of shelter-in-place orders is to convince individual people to act more carefully.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#179

Post by [deleted] »

EdwardDiego wrote: post #120
xfitm3 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I despise lockdowns and my state won't enforce them. I am so thankful to be in a level headed state. Forcing people into poverty is just as bad or even worse as getting a virus. In my area beyond after the initial reopening its business as normal. Everyone is having parties and celebrating, living a normal life.

How many excess deaths is a party worth?

[deleted]

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#180

Post by babesh »

jacobolus wrote: post #178
babesh wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stop putting it all on the federal government. It’s also state government’s fault. California only thinks in terms of lockdowns even after all these months. Also look at people’s personal behaviors. I saw more and more people walking around without masks recently. Downtown Burlingame was shockingly bad.

> California only thinks in terms of lockdowns What are you thinking of? Personally I think we could do much better at hiring contact tracers, getting test sites into vulnerable neighborhoods, doing general community outreach, making sure public-facing workers have sufficient PPE, figuring out how to get infected people places to isolate away from their households, protecting incarcerated people, etc. But historicall…

My opinion is that people are tired of the orders and that they will not change people’s behaviors.
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