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Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

latimes.com

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Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#171

Post by war1025 »

maxerickson wrote: post #160
war1025 wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Imagine if we'd aggressively addressed this problem back in March, Europe had about the strictest lockdown you can imagine and their economy isn't exactly peaches and cream right now. And they have spiking case counts just like the US right now.

Why are you conflating "aggressively addressed this problem" with a strict lockdown? The spring lockdown made sense, in that we didn't really have much information. At this point, we have a bunch of other tools that we aren't using, because people have decided that doing anything is somehow the equivalent of a strict lockdown.

> Why are you conflating "aggressively addressed this problem" with a strict lockdown?

The hypothetical was "Imagine if we had addressed the problem in March?"

We did in fact lock the country down for several months. People seem quick to forget it for political reasons.

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#172

Post by abduhl »

sequoia wrote: post #96
war1025 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People die. I'm becoming more and more callus about the whole thing and beginning to think we just need to adjust our expectations and accept that people die . I was told recently that my town is in terrible shape and the hospitals are nearly overwhelmed. Listening further, I learned that "nearly overwhelmed" meant we had capacity for two or three people to be really sick with Coronavirus. If we need to decimate our…

'fighting the virus harms the economy' Would you believe it if I told you that not fighting the virus has an even bigger toll on the economy? Imagine if we'd aggressively addressed this problem back in March, how much less economic impact would have resulted. But then, as now, we wanted to "protect the economy" and avoid restrictions as long as possible. But this time the strategy will work? I have trouble believing…

Would I believe someone who works at Postmates with over a decade of experience in the software industry bubble when they offer an opinion on the effects of a novel virus pandemic on the overall economy due to high level policy decisions?

Absolutely not.

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#173

Post by jjulius »

snakeboy wrote: post #65
jjulius wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Normally we'd fly out of town for Thanksgiving/Christmas to our respective families, but my wife and I are staying put this year. My parents are coming to us for Thanksgiving, but we are making them get tested the weekend prior, quarantine at home for a few more days, then they are driving to us only stopping for gas (so, wipe down the pump with a Clorox wipe and then use hand sanitizer after touching it). That proce…

Wouldn't your parents presumably be at much higher risk than you? It seems like the roles should be reversed, no?

Great question! Looking at it strictly from an age perspective you're correct, but there are a lot of other factors that flip that around for us.

My wife has a pre-existing condition and we've been taking sheltering-in-place pretty seriously since the Bay Area shut down in mid-March. We've both been working from home and have only ventured out for walks, to sit in corners of parks away from everyone, or to go to a doctor. Groceries/food get delivered (I haven't even been into a grocery store since March, which feels weird) and we haven't hung out with friends in person or anything like that.

On the flip side, both of my parents are going into work and my mother works at a nursing home (which - so far - has not had a single case of the virus), so they come into contact with far more people during the day than we do. In addition, we have an eight month old which makes us doing a day-long road trip without stopping at a hotel next to impossible.

So since our contact with others remains next to 0, and my parents are totally cool with using the extra PTO to quarantine, get tested, then quarantine a bit more before driving down, we feel comfortable with it. Obviously I'm not going to view it through rose-colored glasses and act as though there's no risk, but there's a much, much smaller risk through this route than if they were to hop on a plane and come straight over sans negative test.

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#174

Post by vbordo »

exabrial wrote: post #40
ceejayoz wrote: post #5

It also demonstrates why the "personal choice" stuff is BS here. I see a lot of folks going "why are you worried if you're following the rules yourself?", and yet... > None of the victims who lost their lives had attended the party.

So... my body, _not_ my choice?

This is a misapplication of an ideological statement about abortion. Disregarding the guidance of health professionals such as wearing a mask and socially distancing means endangering other people's lives.

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#175

Post by gagege »

atty wrote: post #20

What are HNers planning to do for the holidays? We’re seriously considering not seeing anyone, not even parents, even though my SO has had COVID already (she works at a hospital and contracted it from COVID patients). Stories like this are the main reason. Even if no one at the party gets very ill, the chance of further spreading it to others seriously scares me.

I'm going to travel to see my family for Christmas. I know I'll probably get hidden, flagged, whatever for saying that. I've known lots of people who have had the virus and I'm of the opinion that these news stories are quite overblown and meant to scare people. There are lots of cases, yes, but bodies aren't piling up in the streets.

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#176

Post by spidersouris »

protoman3000 wrote: post #140
ceejayoz wrote: post #5

It also demonstrates why the "personal choice" stuff is BS here. I see a lot of folks going "why are you worried if you're following the rules yourself?", and yet... > None of the victims who lost their lives had attended the party.

How can we live good if there exists a significant amount of people rejecting seatbelts? We need to face the reality that on average people make bad choices which leads to substantial negative outcomes for any group. In particular, the COVID-19 pandemic again confirms empirically that humans on average don’t have self-responsibility. How can philosophical ideas that are founded on principles such as “humans have self…

> How can we live good if there exists a significant amount of people rejecting seatbelts?

Is there really? One thing that has always struck me since the beginning of this pandemic is precisely why people would be more willing to attach their seatbelts than to wear a mask. Perhaps not the best comparison to make, though.

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#177

Post by theplague42 »

war1025 wrote: post #78
smeyer wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Over the next 38 days, the virus spread to 176 other people. Seven of them died. Seven people died. This isn't some hypothetical where people are acting like there's risk where there isn't; it's a story of seven real, living, breathing humans passing away.

People die. I'm becoming more and more callus about the whole thing and beginning to think we just need to adjust our expectations and accept that people die . I was told recently that my town is in terrible shape and the hospitals are nearly overwhelmed. Listening further, I learned that "nearly overwhelmed" meant we had capacity for two or three people to be really sick with Coronavirus. If we need to decimate our…

It's a lot more than two or three people. And the decimation would be a lot less bad if stimulus relief was passed. How large is your town, that the hospital only has a couple ventilators?

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#178

Post by wins32767 »

ceejayoz wrote: post #5

It also demonstrates why the "personal choice" stuff is BS here. I see a lot of folks going "why are you worried if you're following the rules yourself?", and yet... > None of the victims who lost their lives had attended the party.

I hope some enterprising lawyer starts filing wrongful death civil suits for people who do not follow mask and gathering rules. With sequencing of the virus, plus some contact tracing it should be possible to make a preponderance of evidence case for a subset of deaths. That should hopefully provide a stick to get a large number of defectors (in game theory terms) to stop defecting. A political solution would clearly be better, but I'll take what I can get.

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#179

Post by protoman3000 »

quantified wrote: post #154
protoman3000 wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can we live good if there exists a significant amount of people rejecting seatbelts? We need to face the reality that on average people make bad choices which leads to substantial negative outcomes for any group. In particular, the COVID-19 pandemic again confirms empirically that humans on average don’t have self-responsibility. How can philosophical ideas that are founded on principles such as “humans have self…

Not wearing a seatbelt hurts yourself only. If Covid were an STD there would be huge social pressure on it even though it would be passed less frequently.

> Not wearing a seatbelt hurts yourself only.

And yet people in many countries reject it.

If a significant amount of people already makes a bad choice at this point where it affects themselves we cannot expect these people to make good choices to protect others.

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#180

Post by war1025 »

sequoia wrote: post #161
war1025 wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Imagine if we'd aggressively addressed this problem back in March, Europe had about the strictest lockdown you can imagine and their economy isn't exactly peaches and cream right now. And they have spiking case counts just like the US right now.

> And they have spiking case counts just like the US right now. What lead to this recent spike, in your opinion? "peaches and cream" it's a global pandemic, I don't think "peaches and cream" is on the table right now. What we need is to survive to have peaches and cream another day, and that takes discipline and PERSONAL SACRIFICE not everyone whining and moaning about how they can't just pretend nothing is going on…

> What we need is to survive to have peaches and cream another day,

Great news! As a collective we will survive this just fine no matter what happens.

Individually some people won't be so lucky.

Coronavirus is a tragedy, but it is far from an existential threat.

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