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In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

reuters.com

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Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#171

Every article I see about people testing asymptomatic is followed by comments insisting they were asymptomatic when tested , with no idea of whether they stayed asymptomatic or whether virtually all of them had symptoms a few days later, thus basically invalid. But this doesn't seem like a hard problem to solve, folks . Is nobody bothering to follow up with the asymptomatic people a week later? Just take their mobile…

The USS Theodore Roosevelt situation was discussed here several days ago. At this time about 60% of the crew who tested positive are still asymptomatic. Enough time has passed that we can be confident they aren't just presymptomatic. Numbers are pretty solid since they were all quarantined and tracked. Infection fatality rate was about 0.1%, however that's probably not representative of the general population.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#172
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i don't understand the value of this multiplier. Case statistics are not an official census, it's incidental , depending on the criteria with which each region makes tests. Case numbers are unimportant, it's the total infections and consequent deaths that matter

You're probably right that they shouldn't be, but case statistics are regularly treated as an official census. I've seen many news articles in the vein that suchandsuch country is handling it better or worse because of their case numbers, or statistics like CFR that are computed from official case numbers.

while the absolute value doesn't matter, its time course is mostly representative , because countries rarely change strategies wrt testing.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#173
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure why you are being downvoted: https://www.oxfordbiosystems.com/COVID-19-Rapid-test "In order to test the detection sensitivity and specificity of the COVID-19 IgG-IgM combined antibody test, blood samples were collected from COVID-19 patients from multiple hospitals and Chinese CDC laboratories. The tests were done separately at each site. A total of 525 cases were tested: 397 (positive) clinically confirmed…

I wonder what's the process through which false positives happen in this case. Previous infection by milder Coronaviruses? Edit: I'm looking at the reddit post but I have a lot of reservations with the "prevalence 0.06", unless we'll use the test to test absolutely everybody and not only people who are suspect. Has that calculator been validated as well? If the test was 12 false positives in 128 negatives, how come t…

60% is the probability that a particular positive test result is actually a false positive. It's not the overall the false positive rate.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#174
post #17

It doesn't appear to mention what type of test was done. Were they checking for current active infection, or for antibodies which would indicate if the person has ever been infected? (if the latter, they may have had symptoms back then)

I am not willing to even consider these results until more details about testing are revealed. There has already been so much misinformation about testing and results that I am incredibly skeptical of any results now.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#175

Every article I see about people testing asymptomatic is followed by comments insisting they were asymptomatic when tested , with no idea of whether they stayed asymptomatic or whether virtually all of them had symptoms a few days later, thus basically invalid. But this doesn't seem like a hard problem to solve, folks . Is nobody bothering to follow up with the asymptomatic people a week later? Just take their mobile…

Yes, one study when the diamond princess was tested it was originally 50% asymptomatic and then later on that had gone down to under 20%

A lot of the asymptomatic cases had pneumonia in their lungs too. They were however still able to expel CO2 and so did’t feel shortness of breath.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're probably right that they shouldn't be, but case statistics are regularly treated as an official census. I've seen many news articles in the vein that suchandsuch country is handling it better or worse because of their case numbers, or statistics like CFR that are computed from official case numbers.

while the absolute value doesn't matter, its time course is mostly representative , because countries rarely change strategies wrt testing.

That just doesn't seem true. In the US testing strategies are rapidly changing, since health officials indicate this will be essential to safely removing restrictions.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#177

Before the deluge of "But wait two weeks" comments, I just want to ask at what point we accept that the potentially of totally asymptomatic cases is insanely high, far higher than anyone thought?

Note that until this past week, officially, the symptoms had to be the first three defined by CDC, not the eight or so CDC have expanded now: fever, cough, shortness of breath, chills, repeated shaking, muscle pain, headache, sore throat and new loss of taste or smell, could all appear between two and 14 days after exposure. In the field it appears many/most of the less severe cases don’t exhibit the initial set they…

Very interesting point. If this is how symptomatic was defined, yours should be the top comment of the thread.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#178
post #68
post #52

I've read that asymptomatic carriers are though to be less infectious than those with symptoms because of the lower concentration of virus in the saliva. Also, many virologists mentioned in recent texts that the initial concentration of the virus you receive can affect how sick you'll get - the more viruses you're exposed to, the faster they can invade the body and the more severe it will get. Can those two facts be…

These were exactly the assumptions of the RIVM in the Netherlands end Februari and March causing it to completely spiral out of control.

> causing it to completely spiral out of control.

I live in the Netherlands and I think you could say that we actually have it quite under control (relatively speaking of course). We never reached peak ICU capacity and the ICU occupancy has been steadily declining for more than two weeks now[1]. Our schools for children between the ages of 4 and 12 are scheduled to partially open again on the 11th of may[2].

[1] https://nos.nl/artikel/2331720-coronacijfers-van-25-april-ri...

[2] https://nos.nl/artikel/2331460-kabinet-wil-basisscholen-voor...

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#180
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah, that has too much risk of admitting that eternal house arrest isn't a good solution, so we can be certain that won't be the media narrative.

I’m confused about this version of events that some are supporting. In your view, why does the media have a motive to engage in a secret conspiracy to not present any solutions other than an endless shutdown? How would that benefit ‘The media’?

I don't really have enough karma to be able to waste responding, but I'll make an exception for you, since you asked more politely than most.

First, there's not much secrecy involved. It isn't a secret at all that, Hollywood, the American mainstream media, and the political left are all on the same side. It's been obvious for 30 years now.

What we are currently living through is a left-authoritarian consolidation of power. Like other similar consolidations in the 20th century.

That is why, within 24 hours of the first house-arrest orders, propaganda about how our old lives of freedom are gone forever because they were "irresponsible", and how we must all get used to "the new normal" began.

Dr. Fauci says that physical human contact is a thing of the past ("nobody will ever shake hands ever again"), governors, especially those of "blue states" have all acted to either make their house-arrest orders indefinite (like in CA) or to declare that they will continue for multiple years (as VA announced yesterday, for example).

Enforcement is gradually increased everywhere, and citizens are increasingly encouraged to snitch.

Political protests are banned. Even organizing them online is being locked down, with states pressuring Facebook and Google into deleting people's accounts if they even mention the existence of a protest.

The thing is, it takes time to take a society used to freedom and fully consolidate it.

The house arrest orders are the start -- now, when the government eventually let's people out of their houses, but only on conditions (like wearing a tacking wristband, showing your papers to any government official, having to have "a legitimate purpose"), people will be so desperate to leave home that they'll agree.

With "contact tracing" apps and "mandatory isolation", the government will be able to declare any person they need to silence as "contaminated", and they go back to imprisonment, with no recourse, no due process, no burden of proof. Even better, having communicated with a "contaminated" person automatically adds you to the list of the unpersoned.

The economic disruption has already made 1 in 4 Americans dependent upon government handouts to survive. Every week, another 4-5% join them. An authoritarian government needs it's people to be dependent for survival, in order to ensure cooperation.

Meanwhile, the food supply is being turned off. We already have a third of our food production offline, and are most of the way toward driving all independent farmers and ranchers into bankruptcy. We are pretty much guaranteed to have widespread hunger by the fall. This will leave the way for a government takeover of food production.

But, in order for the consolidation to work, they have to keep us all imprisoned willingly until they finish consolidating enough power to make it permanent, or we will all just go back to our lives as free people, the economy will recover, and people won't be dependent upon the would-be dictators for their continued survival.

The next 3-6 months are critical to breaking the back of the capitalist system and soften everyone up to accept the new freedomless world. It will take that long to drive enough people to poverty, hunger, and desperation for them to be willing to go to the authoritarians and beg to be ruled.

This isn't a secret, and it isn't really new. It's more or less how every current left-authoritarian state was formed -- only with more technology and fewer guns.

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