Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The plans to reopen the economy are scary

vox.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

171–180 of 214 posts

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#171

Post by _y5hn »

mattmanser wrote: post #35
_y5hn wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current plan for Norway is to start gradually opening up after Easter: * Opening up kindergartens, physiotherapy, hair salons and allowing cottage holidays from 20th April * Opening schools for 4 youngest classes, After School and some higher education in final years from 27th April So you go after lowest-hanging fruits gradually, but it's a learning phase and could need rollback if people don't follow restrictions e…

Does anyone know why I've seen various reports that they think opening schools will have a low impact on the virus spread? Kids still get infected, so will spread the disease (and I would assume more than most people being careful) as well as then spread it to their households. Is it because children rarely commute outside a community, so it wouldn't spread between communities, just within communities already infecte…

Contagion very rarely trace back to kindergarten and schools, kids have much higher chance of mild infections and it is possible low amounts of virus exposure are safer. Not enough evidence so leaders need to lead and experts collect data and analysis, what measures may not contribute enough to justify.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#172

Post by nitrogen »

mistersquid wrote: post #114
siscia wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe we both agree that locking down 20/30 years old people who still have to study, to meet people, to make experience, to find lovers and to find themselves is very different that lock down 70/80 years old people right? Then there is no doubts that the virus hit hardest the elders. Again, what I am saying is that younger people are hit by the lockdown much more than the elders while being the less concerned ab…

> Again, what I am saying is that younger people are hit by the lockdown much more than the elders while being the less concerned about the virus itself. The problem with saying this is that it's incorrect. Many elders suffer during lockdown in the exact same ways and in some cases to the exact same extent that younger people do, including in the ways you imagine: socially, sexually, economically. Additionally, there…

The insistence with which you have been asserting that young people are being "punished" reveals adherence to an agenda more than an evenhanded analysis of the facts.

I don't think that's fair to the OP. They seem to me to just be describing what they see and feel.

In a cold, utilitarian sense, the ripple effects from messing up a young life are many times more significant. If schooling, work, romance, and childbearing of young people are all disrupted, you can expect to see that in the economy for decades to come (just look at the name "baby boomers" for the opposite case). But, again in the cold utilitarian sense, if the life of someone with 10-20 years left is disrupted, that disruption doesn't last as long.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#173

Post by threatofrain »

davidw wrote: post #85
siscia wrote: post #40

For how much I understand the need to lower the curve and reduce the R0 of the infection, I start to see also another argument. We are basically pausing the life of younger people, indefinitely, to protect the elders. Again, since the quarantine started in my area I exist twice to buy groceries and that's all. So I understand the need and the importance of it. But should I really throw away on year of my life? Should…

30 year old guy died where I live, recently. He leaves behind a young family. Do not pretend this can't hurt young people, badly.

And people will die from suicide due to economic destitution. The ones pretending are those that think public policy should be discussed in morally squeaky clean terms. Crisis policy is a dirty conversation about who sinks and who swims.

We are talking about trading people for people, and we’re saying in some trades the numbers work out better.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#174

Post by jmercouris »

KoftaBob wrote: post #122

Maybe I'm just fed up with how the news has been handling this situation, but I find usage of words like "scary" in a title to be incredibly worthless. If I can't even get to the end of the title without being told how to feel, it speaks volumes about the intentions of the post. This is just one of the numerous examples of lazy and bad intentioned attempts to use anxiety to convince readers to click the article. The…

Very well said.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#176

Post by elephantscan »

fuckknows wrote: post #143
elephantscan wrote: post #135

When are we just going to admit that our choices are: 1) indefinite lockdown 2) everyone gets the virus Between a 0.5% chance of dying, and life imprisonment, I'd take my chances.

Here's the thing though, that binary choice is predicated on what we know right now, tomorrow we may know more, and we will definitely know more in a few weeks, in a month or two we may know enough that we have better choices to make. Our ability to treat this virus is very limited right now, but that may not be true in a month, so just throwing up your hands and saying let everyone die now when we don't have good tr…

Yeah sure. a month, a year, a decade. How much of my life are you willing to steal?

The fatality rate for octogenarians is 15%. Octogenarians also have a 10% chance of dying every year anyway. At 18 months of lockdown 15% of them are dead anyway and you took a single digit percentage of my life away

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#178

Post by redis_mlc »

makomk wrote: post #19
redis_mlc wrote: post #7

I started studying the US news reports of Covid-19 related to ventilators weeks ago when I realized there were no interviews with survivors, and ignored the speculation around partial testing results and R0 calculations because of the lack of hard data, and exponential rate of infection making analysis moot. Essentially, ICU admission for ventilators, and subsequent deaths, are the most complete and factual data we h…

The big problem with this plan is that it would require giving up and letting a large number of Americans die, which is a political and social nonstarter given current expectations around life, death and healthcare. (Well, at least amongst the secular parts of America. Some of the more religious communities seem to still hold the view that it's futile and arrogant to think this is something we can fight, much to the…

For herd immunity, the number discussed is 80% of the population getting Covid-19. Since there are cases world-wide, I don't see containment at this point working.

To even consider containment succeeding, we would need a way to test 300 million people a couple times a week. Since we can't do even 1 million tests a day, the math doesn't add up.

"Giving up" is a strange way to look at it. We have various flus annually. There will be a time limit to lockdown of several weeks, not 18 months.

So it's important to look at the data and make an informed public healthcare policy decision.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#179

Post by redis_mlc »

lostmsu wrote: post #31
redis_mlc wrote: post #7

I started studying the US news reports of Covid-19 related to ventilators weeks ago when I realized there were no interviews with survivors, and ignored the speculation around partial testing results and R0 calculations because of the lack of hard data, and exponential rate of infection making analysis moot. Essentially, ICU admission for ventilators, and subsequent deaths, are the most complete and factual data we h…

This plan is stupid. In U.S. under lockdowns, already 18k people died in just a few weeks, and every day 1k more die, and that number is still growing. The worst estimate for 2018 flu was 56k (e.g. less than a month left under current lockdown regime to surpass it), best is 12k which is long surpassed.

People die every year from flu in the tens of thousands, or car accidents, or myriad other causes.

Rather than an emotional response, we need healthcare policy experts to look at the data as of today.

What has changed in the past month is that we know ventilators don't work 66% - 90% of the time, so they should be taken out of the "flattening the curve" equation.

Please see my post with several links to learn more.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#180

Post by redis_mlc »

redis_mlc wrote: post #7

I started studying the US news reports of Covid-19 related to ventilators weeks ago when I realized there were no interviews with survivors, and ignored the speculation around partial testing results and R0 calculations because of the lack of hard data, and exponential rate of infection making analysis moot. Essentially, ICU admission for ventilators, and subsequent deaths, are the most complete and factual data we h…

Source Links for my post earlier today starting with the text "I started studying the US news reports of Covid-19 related to ventilators weeks ago"

Please read through these and let me know of any comments or questions. They strongly imply ventilators don't work on corona patients across multiple reporting countries, so a different policy direction should be investigated for treatment of confirmed cases and lockdown duration. If you agree with what I wrote, please upvote my posts so that people can more eaily find my research.

It appears that ICU doctors, politicians and the public are all working on different narratives, which is counter-productive.

Thank you.

Wuhan shrimp seller identified as coronavirus ''patient zero''

https://medicaldialogues.in/medicine/news/wuhan-shrimp-selle...

Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

For some survivors, coronavirus complications can last a ‘lifetime’

https://www.france24.com/en/20200402-for-some-survivors-coro...

Ventilators Are No Panacea For Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/02/8261052...

Doctor: Splitting a single ventilator only works for some (his research was for temporary use for up to 12 hours, not days or weeks)

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/04/06/splitting-venti...

A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients

https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/clinical-care/medical-wor...

COVID-19 twice as contagious as previously thought – CDC study

https://thinkpol.ca/2020/04/08/covid-19-twice-contagious-pre...

Santa Clara County Coronavirus (COVID-19) Data Dashboard

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-co...

Covid-19 Timeline (please ignore the clickbait publisher URL, this has very useful info)

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/chinas-devas...

If you're an aide to Governor Newsom, or know one, please leave your contact information below and I'll contact you.

Post reply on HN