The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming

Post by tmountain » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:29 PM UTC

Consultant32452 wrote: post #164

logicchains wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Heath system going out has huge cascading problems for society. Worse than the huge cascading problems caused by making a double digit percentage of the population unemployed indefinitely?

Merkel publicly estimated 40-70% of the population of Germany would catch Corona this year. Let's assume that holds true for the US. The most reliable public numbers so far suggest 1-3% death rate. Let's assume that holds true in the US also. US population is 330 million. The lower bound of the estimates above (40% catch, 1% of those die) is 1.32 million people die. The upper bound (70% catch, 3% of those die) is 6.9…

Post by mynegation » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:30 PM UTC

mrfusion wrote: post #134

magicsmoke wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If COVID19 was spreading in the US since November then the US hospital system should have been overwhelmed by now with intensive care patients. The first infection in China was traced back to November and they were building hospitals by early February. The only places I've seen the first US infection being dated that early are conspiracies on Chinese social media that claim the origin of COVID19 to be the US instead…

You’d think mild cases wouldn’t have the same viral load as the severe cases. Even if you’re technology contagious it may be less for the mild cases. Especially asymtomatic. You’d not be coughing or sneezing more than usual which must have some effect. Just a thought. No one seems to have mentioned this idea.

Post by drited » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:33 PM UTC

throwaway_pdp09 wrote: post #37

yotamoron wrote: post #31

Corona is killing a negligible % of the population, mostly very old and very sick people (checkout the official data from the Italian health ministary - average age of dead patiences is 79.5 years, all of them with severe background illness, in a part of the country where 29% of the population is at least 60 yeard old. Those are the facts.). If anyting, what we are experiencing is not a corona pandemic but a massive,…

> checkout the official data from the Italian health ministary Post link plz

Post by seanmcdirmid » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:38 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #88

w1ntermute wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The death curve is also deceptive - there were likely many patients who were recorded as dying of the flu, or of influenza-like illness, that actually died of COVID-19, due to a lack of testing. The bottom line is that it’s very difficult to make a conclusive statement based on the data collected prior to widespread testing. As for that Medium article, it’s written by a tech exec with zero education or professional e…

The death curve is a lot less deceptive than the number of cases.

Post by seanmcdirmid » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:39 PM UTC

mynegation wrote: post #165

ithkuil wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Often tests are not performed on a random sample of the population but only on people that are symptomatic. But not all symptomatic people receive tests. Knowing those two number (number of symptomatic people who would have qualified for a test, were it available; number of test performed) could paint q better picture.

Until recently Ontario had very stringent testing pre-requisites: 2 or more symptoms, history or travel in the last 14 days. Even then, on average, only 2% of tested people tested positively for SARS-Cov-2. In my opinion that makes the notion of much more larger population having it and not noticing due to the lack of testing, at least at this stage, highly unlikely.