Arbitrary number, but yes. Network effects. The more people, the more likely one has the virus, and the more people likely to be affected by it, and thus carry it to still more places.
If the virus has spread to 0.01% of the population (33k cases), a stadium with 6932 people in it has a 50% chance of having at least one infected person in it (assuming uniform distribution). If the virus has spread to 0.1% of the population (330k cases), an auditorium with 693 people in it has a 50% chance of having at least one infected person in it. If the virus has spread to 1% of the population (3.3M cases), a c…
We don't know the actual number, and the minimum (i.e., the number we know of) is constantly in flux, so any number derived from those is wrong. The 'safe' percentage chance of someone with the virus being in the room with you is definitely arbitrary. So...arbitrary. Yes, you can run statistics to say that "well, we made a bunch of assumptions and came up with a specific number", but most of those assumptions are arbitrary.
If Merkel's assertion that 60%-70% of the population in Germany will be infected is accurate, and we end up with similar numbers in the US, the math is pretty stunning.[1] With a US population of 330,000,000, we end up with 198,000,000 infected, using the lower estimate of 60%.[2] A study in China concluded a 2.4% mortality rate and the WHO reported 3.4% among reported cases.[3][4] Using a (hopefully not) conservativ…
Results look like ~20% need oxygen(50m) and 5% need ventilators(17m).
You can choose to be a part of this, but it's the same logic as blaming the poor for societal issues or Muslims for terrorism.
If not being poor was as simple as washing your hands and avoiding necessary travel then that might have more merit. It's quite possible for both "the systemic response is inadequate" and "we should not take personal actions that cause unnecessary risk for others when possible" to both be true and fit in one's head at the same time. One does not negate the other.
Agree, BUT the media only has so much attention. Use it for chastising the govt.
I just spent alot of my time reading the thread here, it's 3:10a.m. here in the Midwest. I gotta say, some get it, some simply want to put heads in the sand. My own brother, me being the oldest of 8, has a kid on the way, is a paramedic, lives in our home state of GA. He's a paramedic. I called to let him know my concerns and he brushed me off. Let's say it bugged me abit. My grandparents are innocent, in their late 70's and early 80's. Here locally, in MO, in my area, I've tried to tell people to do this/that, be reasonable, help out if possible, etc. Hoarding is ridiculous though, stealing, only the beginning. I was in the service for 8yrs, 2 deployments, seen the worst in people in war. I gotta say, at my point in life, at the early years of my middle age, I've got kidney problems so my doctor told me to stay indoors which I usually do anyway, had to stop working for myself so it's just my wife making most of the money right now. It's hard on everyone. When I hear the term "young & old people" I roll my eyes, it's everyone, younger, middle, old folks.
If the U.S. where I live, loses almost 2 million people, and many of them are oldest, well, I can't lie, those who have the money/power who've been doing us in before even I was born, for too long, for those types, good riddance. For those like my grandparents and others I don't know, they're innocent. Just as the rest of us are who are being cautious, like I am. My wife has a protocol I've given her, something similar to how the military does things. Hard to let go of many years doing things a certain way with vet's like myself. Whether or not things are followed or not, if we lose that many people, we'll see what we see. I see it day/day.
And I got no proof, just a theory, based on what I've seen in the field by merc's, and then the Chinese, some of them, blaming our U.S. Army when some went to an event there in China back late last year for doing this to them, I hold down my stance that the U.S. Govt did this by sending a team out there dressed in our uniforms, but them being merc's, they don't care, they'll still be safe and secure for the money. No ROE, nothing. I've seen it too much.
For the rest of everyone, just stay safe and try to minimize contact. Washing hands alot, etc. My life is mid-way over and I'd like to make it to 50, if I can. I'm not far from that. We live paycheck to paycheck as most do here, but, at least the electric company here is suspending and forgiving late payments and so on. Then we're about to hit flood season here, it's already rising. It happens alot here, it'll make this worse too. My neighbor, one of several, lost his job for the time due to it being in the restaurant business. My wife's job has cut out all 70+ patients and instead, are doing things over the Skype and stuff for visits. Everyone else is being tested for fever as they come there before entering. Smart. Yet, no security. I'm speaking more about localized issues here, but we just got 10 new cases confirmed nearby in the county my wife works in. The Rolling Stones aren't coming here now, for now, because of this. All things considered, my theory, my position to be safe and smart and not be ridiculous when it comes to buying products, which we're already experiencing a shortage of, is to ration and keep those hands and feet clean. Keep uniforms from work separate from your people at home as my wife is doing now.
We'll see what we see, as another put it, it's a number's game, time will tell, the virus will eventually burn itself down to a point that normality, whatever you want to call that, will come back. The Guard has been on alert, as all states here are on state emergencies. I've been hearing of forced removal though, some being asked to leave too, don't know all the facts on that yet, but I'm tracking this. I see locally how some people think this is just a "cold" & nothing more. Okay, well, we'll see. I already know it's not, so at least here locally some folks are listening to people like me. I am no scientist, but, I'm not stupid, been in the field, had to help injured folks from the enemy trying to kill us, etc. I expect the worst, hope for the best. Stay safe everyone.