Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It has nothing to do with company performance. If that's true then no one would ever invest in stocks.
Why wouldn't they?
?
Because investing is entirely about determining future value?
Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4
171–180 of 346 posts
Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4
#172no joke there are several people on /r/wallstreetbets that have turned a few hundred dollars into $1M+ in 2 months.
There are also several people I know who have done so at a craps table. That doesn't make it a sustainable or recommendable activity.
there's a reason the sub is called /r/wallstreetbets I guess?
Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4
#173Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why wouldn't they?
? Because investing is entirely about determining future value?
of what? Stock? If so, the company performance is irrelevant as people might buy the stock for any reason(some might consider the company performance too, of course).
Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4
#174Earlier quoted context omitted.
The low growth was because of production problems and because they maxed out their single factory. Now they have another factory producing and a third under construction. As to subsidies, governments are pushing ev's harder and harder. The EU has continually-increasing fleet standards that can be met only by adding more ev's, and China has continually increasing ev production standards. Ev sales are going to keep inc…
Why were they able to meet a run rate or 500k cars a year in Q4 of last year and not sustain it if their factory was maxed out? And why would they claim in projections that their factory was capable of producing that if they didn’t meet that? Companies are rarely production constrained. Many claim they are, but the fact that Tesla sales in their two largest markets declined doesn’t indicate to me that production is t…
At 500k per year they were still nowhere near meeting global demand, and they decided to move sales away from markets they were already well-established in, and into new ones.
The nice thing about this disagreement we are having is it will be settled by what happens in the next year. I say Tesla's sales will go up strongly now that it has another factory. I take it you think they won't, and all that new capacity will go unsold.
Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4
#175Earlier quoted context omitted.
I dunno. My bullish view has more to do with Tesla using the vehicle market as an entry point to the broader energy market. If the Tesla cars start throwing off profit and make the company self-sustaining, their vertically-integrated energy thing opens the kind of insanely huge global energy market. They're not just going to eat Ford's lunch - but also Chevron, Saudi Aramco and your local energy company.
I think you've hit the nail on the head for the bullish Tesla case. I don't think there's enough profits in the automotive industry for Tesla to be worth $105-120B. Sure, Toyota is worth more, but basically no one else is and Tesla is a long time from being the next Toyota and I think the odds of them becoming the next Toyota have to be below 50% and are realistically probably more like 5-10%. That's not a dig at Tes…
I have to say, thank you for this thoughtful post.
Tesla is one of the most compelling stories to follow in recent years, but it seems like moderates have been pushed out and discussions have devolved in to Tesla is a fraud vs Hodl to the moon, with both sides cherry picking facts so hard it's mildly impressive.
So the above is a breath of fresh air, and I'd love to read more in depth takes from others whether I agree with them or not.
Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4
#176Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4
#177Earlier quoted context omitted.
$800M loss on $25B sales (which are growing YoY while R&D actually resulting in new models and features is maintained stable) is a noise at this point.
R&D isn’t even meeting depreciation though. Either these factories are some how never before seen in accounting history or this company is underinvesting in its futures
Actually there’s a third option which has been discussed on their financial calls.
Their capital efficiency has markedly increased.
To put it less glamorously, they burned boatloads of money chasing “alien dreadnaught” style fully automated production, and after recognizing that failure (better late than never) they now find they are able to build out new production lines at a fraction of the first line’s cost.
Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4
#178Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4
#179The bull case for Tesla is clear. Aside from Nissan with the Leaf, who recently loss their galvanizing CEO and who's market cap has tanked since, what major automaker has anywhere near the success of Tesla with EV? No doubt execution has been an issue in the past, but recent sales trends, completion of gigafactory, and Chinese expansion show that they are on the right trend. Tesla's were confined to the luxury market…
GM? Bolt is a great car and GM has enormous production capability.
Well aware of the difference in sales figures, but having driven both, I prefer it to the Model S.
I think battery tech will end up deciding the market, though, and GM would have to pivot harder that I think they are able to in order to beat Tesla. I am very curious about their internal R&D pipeline for the Maxwell technology.
Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4
#180I guess he is happy about "Funding secured" not panning out.
He should be happy that he wasn't reprimanded more for faking the largest corporate buyout of all time...
He was reprimanded by the SEC: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2018-226