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A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

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Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#171

Post by yazaddaruvala »

Spooky23 wrote: post #114
yazaddaruvala wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Robotaxis should roughly drop the cost of “Uber’s” to 1/3. Currently Uber only collects 25% of the fair for itself. The rest is for the human driving. Robotaxis can also be used 24/7 so better capital utilization on the initial investment for the car. Maintenance costs reduce with scale (+in house mechanics to improve margins). Maintenance costs reduce with electric drive trains. Maintenance costs reduce with better…

Remember that Uber doesn’t make money. And they pay their drivers less than the driver is losing to depreciation. Also, the robot isn’t free. Software isn’t free — it’s really expensive actually. All of the cost savings that you describe also don’t require a robotaxi to realize. The cost per trip of my wife’s Nissan Leaf is about 60% of the SUV. Even the durability can be addressed by buying a Toyota or Honda vs a Je…

> That capital structure is more like an airline than Google. Not something Wall St rewards.

This is the part we are disconnected on. It is the hardest part to guess about.

If the accounting works out like an airline, I agree with you that costs will remain high and will not change transportation significantly.

However, unlike an airline, the variable cost per ride is low. The way I see it, the economics will work out more like a data center (relative to an airline). Which is something Wall St does reward.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#172

Post by yazaddaruvala »

desas wrote: post #78
yazaddaruvala wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Robotaxis should roughly drop the cost of “Uber’s” to 1/3. Currently Uber only collects 25% of the fair for itself. The rest is for the human driving. Robotaxis can also be used 24/7 so better capital utilization on the initial investment for the car. Maintenance costs reduce with scale (+in house mechanics to improve margins). Maintenance costs reduce with electric drive trains. Maintenance costs reduce with better…

> Currently Uber only collects 25% of the fair for itself. The rest is for the human driving. Who pays for the car currently? In the UK it's not uber, it's the human as far as I've understood it.

If you believe Elon Musk the Model 3 currently sold for $50-60k USD will be worth $100k USD as a robotaxi. For us in 2019 it really is hard to imagine the worth of a car that is used 99% of the time rather than parked 95% of the time.

When robotaxis have been real for a decade, car manufacturers will build and run robotaxi fleets.

Unlike today, vertical integration of manufacturing, maintenance, recycling and operating the fleet of cars creates a lot of consistent demand and can bring significant economic advantages even more than Musk’s current estimate.

Even the car manufacturers goals change. Rather than optimizing to sell cars (have them degrade and sell more), cars will be optimized for durability, maximum materials reuse, lowest variable cost per ride, ergonomic rides.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#173

Post by jedberg »

glangdale wrote: post #127
jedberg wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on the state. California is now charging a much higher renewal rate for EVs specifically to make up for the loss of gas tax revenue.

Switching to flat fees up front to substitute for 'pay-as-you-go' will encourage more driving, not less. Once you've got a multi-thousand investment per year in having a car you may as well drive it. Gas taxes are flawed but at least relate somewhat to use.

It’s not a flat fee it’s based on miles driven in the year.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#174

Post by m0llusk »

Fix congestion by charging for use of the network. Automated cars make automated road use charges trivial.

All this ignores the largest issue with vehicles which is that humans are lousy drivers who kill many people. Even if the roads get clogged automated vehicles could save many lives.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#175

Post by jcranmer »

masonic wrote: post #165
maccam94 wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Think Uber carpooling, minus drivers, much cheaper, and short pickup times. Maybe 6-10 person shuttles instead of sedans/SUVs in denser areas. To a car service, moving an empty vehicle is inefficient and a waste of money.

Keeping an empty electric vehicle in motion all the time is cheaper than parking it, in urban contexts.

Because you're not pricing the externalities of having zero-occupant vehicles roaming around streets that are already at or near maximum capacity.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#176

Post by john_minsk »

eherbrernejerh wrote: post #159

These are some interesting results. That said, fully self-driving cars almost certainly won't exist any time in the next 100 years anyway, so I don't think this will be an issue. By the time, if it ever happens, that fully self-driving technology is created, society will likely be so different from what it is now that the issues this article raises will no longer be valid. Fully self-driving cars require artificial g…

Is it ethical nowadays to hire a driver?

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#177

Post by john_minsk »

zer00eyz wrote: post #55

The issue is that everyone is looking at the problems and no one is looking at the solutions. Congestion charges, and utilization taxes are going to be in our future (and we should have them now). Sure I can send my car to the store and have someone tuck the gallon of milk I need in the trunk but does utilization make me decline that use right now? Can I tell my car to go pick up the milk at 5am so its waiting for me…

One more small? benefit: general population will be trained to think proactively and be more organized on these small tasks.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#178

Post by jcranmer »

yazaddaruvala wrote: post #172
desas wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Currently Uber only collects 25% of the fair for itself. The rest is for the human driving. Who pays for the car currently? In the UK it's not uber, it's the human as far as I've understood it.

If you believe Elon Musk the Model 3 currently sold for $50-60k USD will be worth $100k USD as a robotaxi. For us in 2019 it really is hard to imagine the worth of a car that is used 99% of the time rather than parked 95% of the time. When robotaxis have been real for a decade, car manufacturers will build and run robotaxi fleets. Unlike today, vertical integration of manufacturing, maintenance, recycling and operati…

> Rather than optimizing to sell cars (have them degrade and sell more)

People often talk about cars being afflicted by this style of planned obsolescence, but the facts are that cars last far longer now than they did 50 years ago. What planned obsolescence does exist is in the form of trying to shame you for running an "old" car as opposed to knowingly making the manufacturing quality of cars utter shit.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#179

Post by jcranmer »

SergeAx wrote: post #164
jcranmer wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It'll be a no-brainer to pay $200-$300 per month for (effectively) unlimited robotaxi service than $400 per month for a lease + $100 month for insurance + fuel + cost and inconvenience of refueling. It's already possible: a monthly transit pass is often in the $100-150 range. The fact that people have been choosing to forego viable transit options in favor of a much more expensive personal vehicle option for a long…

No, this is because transit pass cannot fulfill ALL their needs of transportation, but mostly commuting.

That sounds like someone who has never even attempted to make that work.

Transit is least effective in suburbs, where you have to try very hard and basically live in exactly the right location to make a transit-only experience work. But in both large urban conglomerations and even in many small rural cities, it is actually quite effective to do all of your transportation needs using local transit.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#180

Post by jcranmer »

throwitawayfam wrote: post #140
kjksf wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you use X and then a substitute Y arrives that is 10x cheaper and more convenient, you'll switch to it. Using robotaxi network will be much cheaper than total cost of owning a car, mostly because cars are dramatically underutilized. On average a car is used 1-2 hrs a day out of 12-16 hrs it could be used as a robotaxi. To start off we have 5-7x price difference. Then most use is not shared. Assuming robotaxis wi…

People could send their idle vehicle to work for them, while they work, while they sleep.

Traffic demand is very bursty; most people work and sleep at the same time--so who is driving the demand during that time?
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