Driverless cars are stuck in a jam • Hacker News Board

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#171

Post by mar77i » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 11:46 AM UTC

deepnotderp wrote: post #4

The most pertinent point here being that although collecting lots of self driving car data is easy, the tail and unexpected events that you care about are surprisingly rare. And many of these events can also be entirely new (never seen before). Current AI SOTA techniques simply require too much data and cannot reason well enough to solve this. Leaving Musk aside, amongst those who are serious about self driving cars,…

There were scenarios in which this LIDAR technology would effectively blind detectors on other cars. I can understand how this puts the use case for this technology in question, since ideally, you'd want passive sensors, or at the very least sensors that don't put other people's lives at risk.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#172

Post by Swenrekcah » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 11:47 AM UTC

ossworkerrights wrote: post #149

bogle wrote: post #133

If we expect driverless cars to be further delayed and we continue building our cities to encourage micromobility (bikes, electric scooters, segregated lanes, car free streets, etc.) then at which point does the value of the driverless car become moot because we no longer drive? Does this sound unlikely? Consider European cities like Copenhagen and Amsterdam which have encouraged cycling over the last two decades and…

But why do we even need to cluster in massive cities, when today’s technologies allow for remote work for pretty much any non physical type of work? Accountants, developers, designers, architects, customer support, and so on can all be done remotely. That would reduce both the need to drive and to cram people in overcrowded public transport options.

Because cities make a lot of things much better and easier.

There are definately downsides, but they can be solved. We have systems to collect and clean waste so that is no longer a problem. When cars can be mostly eliminated and the ones that are left will be autonomus, that’s the traffic and air pollution problem mostly solved.

Then we can also have more of untouched land for wildlife and our general pleasure.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#173

Post by 300bps » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 11:49 AM UTC

bogle wrote: post #133

If we expect driverless cars to be further delayed and we continue building our cities to encourage micromobility (bikes, electric scooters, segregated lanes, car free streets, etc.) then at which point does the value of the driverless car become moot because we no longer drive? Does this sound unlikely? Consider European cities like Copenhagen and Amsterdam which have encouraged cycling over the last two decades and…

If you don't need to drive why would you buy a driverless car?

I don’t anticipate many people will ever buy a driverless car.

The whole concept of buying a car is kind of ridiculous. You pay for it then you continue paying for registration, insurance, maintenance, park, etc all while it sits idle 90% of the time.

Driverless cars allow you to be picked up at your front door and dropped off exactly at the spot wherever and whenever you want for a low fee per trip. And we’ll need about 1/10 the number of cars that we have today.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#174

Post by bostonpete » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 11:49 AM UTC

slg wrote: post #47

rhino369 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the fundamental issue Musk has is that his cars can’t drive safer than even a below average driver. Oh wow, it can stay in a lane and match speed! So can every car manufacturer. They’ve got a level 2+ system and cars won’t be safer until level 4.

>I think the fundamental issue Musk has is that his cars can’t drive safer than even a below average driver. No one in the public has enough data to say one way or another whether that is true and by presenting it as fact you are falling into the same trap that OP is warning about.

Well it's certainly true outside the limited ODD of autopilot, that much seems undeniable. (?)

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#175

Post by axilmar » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 11:51 AM UTC

The AI part of autonomous driving could have easily been handled by creating a network of roads (that is, converting existing roads) that has the appropriate markings and that is easy navigable by machines.

But that requires cooperation between governments and/with the private sector, and in 2019, God forbid that.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#176

Post by jaxn » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 11:51 AM UTC

nkrisc wrote: post #164

YeGoblynQueenne wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The OP is simply stating the base case: cars without drivers shouldn't be safer than cars with drivers. The industry claims that their cars are safer without drivers because AI. The industry must provide the evidence for its very strong claim. The fact that a majority of the public think it's the opposite way around, that skeptical opinions about self-driving cars must provide evidence, is the industry's succes- the…

> Personally the only justification I've heard for self-driving cars being safer is "computers are faster than people". Yes- but at what? Faster at making the right decision - and the wrong decision too.

Computers can "watch" every direction at once.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#177

Post by ageitgey » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 11:55 AM UTC

axilmar wrote: post #175

The AI part of autonomous driving could have easily been handled by creating a network of roads (that is, converting existing roads) that has the appropriate markings and that is easy navigable by machines. But that requires cooperation between governments and/with the private sector, and in 2019, God forbid that.

That's called trains.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#178

Post by minutillo » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 11:56 AM UTC

petilon wrote: post #96

Tesla is already selling "Full Self-Driving Capability" for $6000. Excerpts: Coming later this year: Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs. Automatic driving on city streets. Fine print includes this: The activation and use of these features are dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which m…

They've been selling it for years, I think since 2016. They've delivered it so far to nobody.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#179

Post by jaxn » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 11:56 AM UTC

danboarder wrote: post #109

KaiserPro wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look, "autopilot" works on highways, where there is a median. Everything goes the same direction, and there is a minimal amount of clutter. Its about as easy as driving gets. This is why a level 2 "autopilot" can parade around the place as something that is both innovate and safe. None of the data compares what happens at junctions, which is where the majority of crashes happen. It cannot work in suburban sprawl, It…

Not sure why you state this. I've used autopilot in a Model 3 on city streets and suburbs, it works pretty great.

Similarly, I have used autopilot in rain so bad that I was scared to drive. It performed perfectly and was much less stressful for me.

I was fully engaged and ready to take over, but never needed to.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#180

Post by rubidium » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 11:59 AM UTC

axilmar wrote: post #175

The AI part of autonomous driving could have easily been handled by creating a network of roads (that is, converting existing roads) that has the appropriate markings and that is easy navigable by machines. But that requires cooperation between governments and/with the private sector, and in 2019, God forbid that.

The bigger hurdle is the cost to redo roads.

2-6 million per mile of road. 4 million+ miles of road in US.

It’s not so much the roads though, it’s the other cars and other things/people/animals in the way