Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities • Hacker News Board

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#171

Post by nullorundefined » Mon, Nov 05, 2018, 11:14 PM UTC

throwaway427 wrote: post #22

thebradbain wrote: post #8

I’m biased, but I’ve had a feeling in the beginning it was always going to be Dallas in some capacity: 1. DC area may have three potential cities, but Texas is the only other region that has two cities being considered 2. DFW airport is one of the US’s busiest airports, and American Airlines is headquartered there, so you can get a direct flight to anywhere in the country in 3 hours tops. Amazon already has multiple…

> Public transit, continued investment, world class museums, and honestly a pretty hip city with a lot of activity in the center, not unlike Seattle. Also lots of millennials moving there for its low cost of living and ample jobs. Minus museums, this could be said of plenty of other cities that are in places with less wacky politics. Museums don't mean a thing. Low cost of living as a requirement means a relative low…

Denver is not suitable at all.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#172

Post by sct202 » Mon, Nov 05, 2018, 11:15 PM UTC

jhayward wrote: post #128

sct202 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have low taxes in comparison to other states, partially because they can rely on taxes and licensing fees on mineral extraction (oil) to fund things that other states would have to fund thru other taxes.

Texas is one of the highest tax states in the union. Simply because there is no income tax does not imply low taxation. For instance, property taxes in Williamson County (Austin suburb, extremely conservative, are at 3.08% for new construction homes. Compare that to any other state.

That's comparable to the 2-3% in suburban Illinois (where I live now) and Ohio (where my family is from) and both of those states also have state income tax on top of that.

By this ranking, the tax burden in Texas is 33rd out of 50 states so it's not a low tax state, but it is definitely on the lower tax end of the spectrum. https://wallethub.com/edu/states-with-highest-lowest-tax-bur...

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#173

Post by yourbandsucks » Mon, Nov 05, 2018, 11:19 PM UTC

untog wrote: post #141

jimjansen wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So Amazon should only be allowed to have large offices in Blue states? What dangerous thinking.

Not really, just the definition of "pro-business" is changing. It used to be that all you needed to do was slash a few taxes and you were a pro-business state. These days businesses are looking to be located in areas where their employees will feel safe and welcomed, which excludes states that fight against gay marriage, for example. I don't really see the argument that businesses choosing location based on taxes is…

Choosing based on culture wars is buying into the bullshit. Gay marriage, for example, is federally protected.

We need to fix the culture divide in this country. Let's work from places where we agree rather than searching for disagreement. Lots of states are near the tipping point if we could only speak to each other honestly.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#174

Post by nullorundefined » Mon, Nov 05, 2018, 11:20 PM UTC

ilikehurdles wrote: post #77

adventured wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd place that bet on Northern Virginia as guaranteed and Chicago, Atlanta or Dallas as the other most plausible, with Toronto being a slight possibility since they're going with two. Colorado is nice, but it's nothing compared to the Texas population and economic boom. 28m people in Texas, versus 5m in Colorado. Texas is also building high-speed rail, which will end up linking all of their major cities, an immense b…

I agree with some of your other points... however > Texas is also building high-speed rail, which will end up linking all of their major cities, an immense bonus. Denver already has light rail connecting the airport, Boulder, and Golden as well as other metro areas, as well as amtrak, shuttles, and other public transport to the mountain regions for skiing and other recreation. It's also among the most bike-friendly c…

Foxconn building so close to Chicago makes me think Amazon will look elsewhere.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#175

Post by aquadrop » Mon, Nov 05, 2018, 11:20 PM UTC

rburhum wrote: post #121

standerman wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"There is a recession coming in the near future, which could result in Amazon looking for cheaper developers globally." It's dangerous to post speculative things with such certainty. The future is never guaranteed.

I am just going to leave you with this image here that shows the SP&500 since 1928: https://imgur.com/a/JCMbIvU We have had 10 years of growth since the last recession (every gray line is a recession). If you take into account the market corrections that we have seen this year as a sign, most people in finance will agree that there will be a correction in the next three years. It is far from speculation. The charts w…

Rollback that graph to 1995, and it looks similar to current situation. And then there was 5 more years of high growth.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#176

Post by phd514 » Mon, Nov 05, 2018, 11:20 PM UTC

thebradbain wrote: post #35

throwaway427 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Public transit, continued investment, world class museums, and honestly a pretty hip city with a lot of activity in the center, not unlike Seattle. Also lots of millennials moving there for its low cost of living and ample jobs. Minus museums, this could be said of plenty of other cities that are in places with less wacky politics. Museums don't mean a thing. Low cost of living as a requirement means a relative low…

The writing is on the wall — Texas will turn blue sooner than later. Dallas is a liberal stronghold in Texas, and in absolute numbers turns out more for Democrats than any other city in the state, including Austin (percentage-wise Austin wins by +5%, I believe). Unlike Austin, which is gerrymandered in the state legislature, every single state/county/city official in Dallas is a Democrat. Dallas is also a gay rights…

Much of what you say is true about Dallas proper, but it's a small part of the very large (4th largest MSA in the US) DFW metroplex. The large outer suburbs of DFW are still very conservative though perhaps not in all the ways you would expect. And cities in Texas can't preempt state gun laws, so Dallas's gun laws are no more restrictive than anywhere else in Texas.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#177

Post by esf » Mon, Nov 05, 2018, 11:27 PM UTC

didgeoridoo wrote: post #51

psychometry wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It might be good for a red state to get an HQ, though, since educated people will for once migrate there instead of away from there.

Except the net migration flow in recent decades has been from "blue" to "red" states, not the other way around... do you have any source for the claim that those moving are disproportionately not "educated" people? https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/04/24/the_po...

California migration is disproportionate this way. In-migration to CA is high income and high educated vs out-migration is middle to low income and less educated.

I believe I've seen these trend analyzed in other states as well (low and middle income earners have the most to gain by moving to lower cost of living states, so it's a common pattern).

https://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/article13647809... https://lao.ca.gov/laoecontax/article/detail/265 http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-california-migration-2...

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#178

Post by cloudkj » Mon, Nov 05, 2018, 11:28 PM UTC

nextstep wrote: post #7

I’d bet money on the two being Crystal City, VA and Denver. The DC suburb makes sense for an East Coast hub, and it’s smart to be near the capital for DoD contracts. And Denver is a nice, growing tech city with an attractive lifestyle.

Having multiple "HQs" spread across three timezones would be interesting from an operations point of view, since Amazon uses the "follow the sun" model for on call on some teams.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#179

Post by burlesona » Mon, Nov 05, 2018, 11:31 PM UTC

johan_larson wrote: post #163

Here are two scales, two buckets, and two knives. Whoever bleeds the most, gets the HQ.

Yep. You might enjoy this take on it: https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2018/2/6/in-the-amazon-h...

This thing already feels like a boondoggle and it hasn't even officially happened.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#180

Post by taurath » Mon, Nov 05, 2018, 11:33 PM UTC

hcg wrote: post #100

cronix wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't just about all big corporations with some "weight" behind them do this though? A company employing tens of thousands floats the idea that they might leave the city/state due to some new proposed corporate tax legislation or something, and then the city/state exempts them from the increases to get them to stay since they're such a "big employer?" Isn't this just "negotiating from a position of strength?" This ha…

Yeah, but just because this happens doesn't mean we shouldn't be upset about it. This is companies strongarming governments into giving them tax breaks. It's robbing society to enrich a few people at the top. Amazon is following the Boeing example. I fully expect Washington state to give away massive amounts of money the same way they did before.

Boeing went through on their threat IIRC and decimated the economy of Wichita. Amazon has more power than municipal or even state governments in some respects in economic terms.