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Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

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Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#171

Post by tim333 »

coliveira wrote: post #38
smallnamespace wrote: post #5

The combination of tax repatriation, tax cuts, and large-scale deficit spending (fiscal expansion) late in the economic cycle (recessions typically happen every 8 years or so, and the current expansion has been going on for ~10 yrs now) while the Federal reserve is raising interest rates (monetary 'contraction') is more or less unprecedented (we've never seen it happen in modern times in the US or any other large dev…

The so called business cycle is created by the FED itself. Left uncontrolled, the market will disconnect from reality and create bubbles that can destroy the economy, as it did in 1929. The unrecognized work of the FED is to increase the interest rates periodically to force these bubbles to pop and create a minor recession before they can collapse the economy. The real risk of this cycle is that the FED has already l…

Business cycles have been around longer than the FED and in countries where it doesn't operate. Hence it probably didn't create them all. The FED tries to moderate the cycles I guess.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#172

Post by metalliqaz »

cahomeown456 wrote: post #31
jihadjihad wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While this particular prediction didn't (yet) come true, Krugman is at least one of the few name-brand economists who will admit when he is wrong. He's also got a Nobel in the field, so to write off his textbook as unreadable for a failed prediction seems like a little much.

An economics Nobel is not the same thing as a Nobel in (for example) Physics, and citing it as an appeal to authority is intentionally misleading.

Surely you would still accept credentials, right? Like, I would expect a PhD, etc. Nobel in economics certainly isn't without meaning in that regard.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#173

Post by defen »

metalliqaz wrote: post #169
defen wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Economic collapse or apocalypse, you'll want food, medicine, and alcohol (possibly the most barterable good, also delicious). Also: Potassium iodide in case of nuclear fallout ($9 for 2-week supply) Chlorine dioxide for water purification ($10 for 1-week supply) Both are pretty shelf stable (4-6 years) so you don't need to keep buying them.

sounds like I would have to buy them again after 4-6 years

Sorry, yeah I just mean they last long enough that it's not like you're constantly buying them.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#174

Post by sykh »

maxxxxx wrote: post #149
bodi wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you ever get the feeling no one in government wanted the issue corrected?

Exactly. Unfortunately Americans have been trained to believe that one party is right and the other is wrong. The concept that maybe both are wrong or support the same thing is foreign to them. Same with surveillance: It's either Bush's fault or Obama's fault. They don't see the steady progression over the years independently of who is in power.

It’s sort of the divide and conquer strategy. Pit groups against each other whilst the looting occurs. While people fight over who is the true snowflake and that kind of stuff all sorts of shitty policies get enacted. Things didn’t just suddenly get unbearable because just got elected. If one thinks this then the problem was already there and one's lack of awareness of it is the real problem.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#176

Post by ravenscrow »

mhneu wrote: post #46

2020: policies put in place under this administration will come home to roost during the next administration, which will get the blame. This lag between economic policy and outcomes is a big reason the US has such a disingenuous public debate. Getting what you can in the short term, while being deceptive about long term effects, has become a good strategy. [1] [1] https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/12/18/opinion/republi…

> “The essence of this strategy is to take tax policy out of the hands of experts and entrust it to activists. These campaigns do not usually have much credibility with card-carrying economists. ”

When it comes to economics and religion, the "experts" and activists tend to be one and the same and neither seems to be credible.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/elec...

One of our the "greatest experts" predicted eternal collapse of the markets after trump's election

"If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never."

and an endless global recession.

"So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight."

> This lag between economic policy and outcomes is a big reason the US has such a disingenuous public debate.

Economic policy doesn't cause recessions. The business cycle and the FED raising and lowering interests cause recessions. No matter the economic policies, there will always be a recession. I believe it was jamie dimon who said we usually get one every 8 to 10 years.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#177

Post by tabtab »

tim333 wrote: post #171
coliveira wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The so called business cycle is created by the FED itself. Left uncontrolled, the market will disconnect from reality and create bubbles that can destroy the economy, as it did in 1929. The unrecognized work of the FED is to increase the interest rates periodically to force these bubbles to pop and create a minor recession before they can collapse the economy. The real risk of this cycle is that the FED has already l…

Business cycles have been around longer than the FED and in countries where it doesn't operate. Hence it probably didn't create them all. The FED tries to moderate the cycles I guess.

The "Tulip Bubble" of 1630's is arguably the first speculative bubble. No FED back then. Maybe the FED affects the timing and depth of the business cycle, but probably cannot prevent all "bubbles"...Unless, maybe you give the FED a clue-stick to use on stupid investors.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#178

Post by mywittyname »

creaghpatr wrote: post #119
adventured wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

During the second half of the Clinton Admin, there was an extreme stock market bubble, which began to crash at the end of his second term. Bush inherited a guaranteed recession, and then 9/11 occurred on top of that context. Which then led the Fed to make stupid mistakes on interest rates, which helped spur immense asset inflation in the real estate sector, which then collapsed, which led to the great recession, whic…

100% agree, I'd put the blame on the Fed before Trump, Obama, Bush, or Clinton. If I had to choose it would be Bush for being president when TARP was passed but really the blame there falls on the Congress.

TARP would have been signed by Obama (or McCain).

The fact that the US has enjoyed a economic boom post 2008, while the rest of the world struggled for several more years (especially Europe), can be considered evidence that it was the correct action to take at the time. The current expansion is the second longest in modern history.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#179

Post by sykh »

maxxxxx wrote: post #134
forapurpose wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's incredible that nobody in this discussion mentions the massive fraud and incompetence on the part of Wall Street banks, and the deregulation and lack of oversight that allowed it.

I really regret making my comment. It was about presidents getting credit and blame for the consequences of whatever happened before they were in office. It just shows that people are not capable of discussing things without immediately going into their partisan positions.

It’s a sign of how bad things are in the U.S. State something obvious, like you did, that jives with someone’s attachement to a political party and you get irrational responses. The polarization is palpable. People don’t seem to rationally discuss policy. It’s about defending/justifying political parties. It’s the party that matters.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#180

Post by s2g »

mhneu wrote: post #46

2020: policies put in place under this administration will come home to roost during the next administration, which will get the blame. This lag between economic policy and outcomes is a big reason the US has such a disingenuous public debate. Getting what you can in the short term, while being deceptive about long term effects, has become a good strategy. [1] [1] https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/12/18/opinion/republi…

Starts to tank under trump.

Democrat doesn't miraculously fix it in 2 years. Strong republican congress in 2022.

Where have I heard this story before.

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