Earlier quoted context omitted.
I find myself hoping it implodes sooner rather than later. Purely selfish on my part - but I would like to be able to buy a new graphics card some day. I'm already dreading the insane scramble when Nvidia announces their new cards (likely this summer).
Crypto and the AI boom are funneling money to Nvidia for R&D and to ramp up production. If you want advancement in graphics cards to come more quickly, it’s not a bad trend.
Bitcoin backlash as ‘miners’ stress power grids in Central Washington
171–180 of 278 posts
Re: Bitcoin backlash as ‘miners’ stress power grids in Central Washington
#1721) This is unfair, because it drives up local costs for everyone without providing local economic benefit.
2) I argue this is still unfair, because the export rate alone does not capture the value and revenue of the ability to provide backup power services (i.e. load shaping+ and firming generation++).
Across the northern border, BC Hydro has also been flooded with miners asking to purchase power. The province is powered ~98 % by hydro and residential electricity rates are ~0.07 – 0.09 $US/kWh. Power export services subsidize local rates. Revenue from export services (~15 %) & revenue from local rate payers are set to recover utility costs, while maximizing economic benefit to the province. The export rate (i.e. the price of electricity that physically flows across the border) represents only a fraction of the revenue from export services. Hydro exports have the ability to shape load+ and firm contracts for power++. The key is that power doesn’t necessarily flow across the border when load shaping and firming contracts are in place. But customers pay good money for the ability to call upon that power when it is needed. That ability is diminished by the additional electricity demand of miners. The value of that ability is not captured in the raw export rate.
+load shaping service: Import/export power so that the net-load a customer sees matches that customer’s contracted or self-generation.
++firming generation: Provide backup power to a customer who has agreed to provide power to a third party at a certain time. Should the generators of the customer fail, the exporter will quickly ramp up production to fill the gap.
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To those calling for “free markets”:
Determining a fair rate to charge miners is difficult, because the economics of hydro power systems work differently than most other liberalized electricity markets. In liberalized markets, all generators bid how much electricity they are willing to supply at which cost, for the next hour or so. Then you stack all the cheapest generators until your demand is satisfied and, voila, that last dispatched generator dictates your market price for that hour. Large consumers can buy electricity at that fluctuating market rate, or choose to shut down. Here, miners would pay the marginal cost, fair enough. Markets with large hydro power stations can’t work like that. Withholding a large dam from generating electricity gives the operator enough “market power” to be the price-setting generator every hour year round, which gives that operator the ability to dictate prices.
(edits: formatting)
Re: Bitcoin backlash as ‘miners’ stress power grids in Central Washington
#173Earlier quoted context omitted.
What makes an investment in 'this Bitcoin crap' any different from an investment in say Facebook shares or Snap shares? Aren't they just unnecessary digital crap too that nobody actually needs? Bitcoin has become the gold standard for crypto and many people invest on the basis that there'll be huge growth in the area of blockchain technology and tokenised digital assets in the years to come. If Bitcoin remains the go…
Shares give you a stake in a productive(hopefully) enterprise, cryptocurrency does not give you anything but a token. This is the problem that Buffett has with cryptocurrencies. When you buy shares in a company you are buying claims to its future earnings at least in theory. Theory being that should the company not serve shareholder needs you can force the company to distribute the earnings/dissolve/merge etc etc. (N…
Two: I know you said >Not going into the whole modern abomination to strip lesser shareholders of their rights to vote as Google, Facebook, Snap have done with their tiered stocks
However if you want to argue you're problems with crypto (there are many) we need to make arguments using the way things are in the real world.
Given I'm a retail investor. In one universe I place a bet on Snap for 50k. In another I took that same 50k and put it into bitcoin. In both universes my bet goes bad, both asset's price per unit goes to 0. Snap goes through the process of being liquidated. Remember I'm a retail investor, I own common stock.
Now am I better off in one universe over another? I'd argue that I'm not. However if I were Warren Buffet, I'd have been much better off bought Snap as I would have preferred shares.
Re: Bitcoin backlash as ‘miners’ stress power grids in Central Washington
#174Earlier quoted context omitted.
This comment applies to any revolutionary technology. Let's substitute cryptocurrencies with "the internet" in 1999: - people trading 'stocks' in the same way Pokemon / WWF kids trade cards. - thinking this is actually a long-term 'investment' strategy (well its idiots trading with each other ...) - to top it off, siphoning off capital and giving a load of shitty excuses 'it could be like Detroit at the beginning of…
The difference is that the Internet had clear useful applications at that point and billions of dollars in real business (not just speculation) was happening annually. Yes, there were plenty VC misfires with no plausible path to profitability — my favorite was cement.com, with free shipping! — but there were tons of existing businesses finding significant value from it and new companies like Amazon, eBay, Travelocity…
Most people in the west have about the same use for gold[0] and bitcoin - speculation, gamble, "investment". However, people of Venezuela, Turkey, Libya, Iran and even Russia have a lot of use for gold (and bitcoin): A store of value they can take with them if they leave. And unlike gold, bitcoin can be made confiscation proof. The official currencies of these places have more volatility and less stability than BTC.
[0] Gold does have ornamental and industrial use, but that's NOT why people buy it, and not why it is valued the way it is. The "investment" claims on gold outnumbers the industrial/ornamental claims by some 3 or 4 orders of magnitude.
Re: Bitcoin backlash as ‘miners’ stress power grids in Central Washington
#175It's hard to explain the levels of stupidity in this. - people trading 'coins' in the same way Pokemon / WWF kids trade cards. - thinking this is actually a long-term 'investment' strategy (well its idiots trading with each other ...) - to top it off, siphoning off electricity and giving a load of shitty excuses 'it could be like Seattle's. I don't know where to begin with this Bitcoin crap; it's gotten crazy that so…
What makes an investment in 'this Bitcoin crap' any different from an investment in say Facebook shares or Snap shares? Aren't they just unnecessary digital crap too that nobody actually needs? Bitcoin has become the gold standard for crypto and many people invest on the basis that there'll be huge growth in the area of blockchain technology and tokenised digital assets in the years to come. If Bitcoin remains the go…
That's been the 'investment thesis' for the past 5-8 years.
And people have been bidding these things up ever higher, because any day now someone's going to figure out something actually useful to do with them...
(And in the mean time if some coiners get to skim a little cream from the irrational exuberance, I'm sure they don't mind to do so.)
But where is any coherent trend line supporting claims of huge growth in the area of blockchain technology and tokenised digital assets in the years to come.?
Seems to be wishful thinking that is completely at odds with the reality of these systems.
Am I missing something?
Re: Bitcoin backlash as ‘miners’ stress power grids in Central Washington
#176Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well now you know what the market cap is for snake oil. For the first time we've gotten a clear view of the market size -- and with that kind of size there's no doubt this won't be the last one.
It's not exactly snake oil because you used to be able to buy thinks with it. It's just become snake oil. Maybe that's pedantic, but I don't think it would have become large if it hadn't initially been on a path towards being useful as a currency.
Re: Bitcoin backlash as ‘miners’ stress power grids in Central Washington
#177Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is Amazon accepting the Bitcoin or is that just a way to convert it into real money first? If the seller doesn't know, it doesn't count as Bitcoin usage — just another Visa transaction.
>If the seller doesn't know, it doesn't count as Bitcoin usage — just another Visa transaction. You've got some strong arms on you my friend, moving those goal posts so far so fast. I pay with bitcoin. Stuff arrives in the mail. I am using bitcoin.
Re: Bitcoin backlash as ‘miners’ stress power grids in Central Washington
#178It's hard to explain the levels of stupidity in this. - people trading 'coins' in the same way Pokemon / WWF kids trade cards. - thinking this is actually a long-term 'investment' strategy (well its idiots trading with each other ...) - to top it off, siphoning off electricity and giving a load of shitty excuses 'it could be like Seattle's. I don't know where to begin with this Bitcoin crap; it's gotten crazy that so…
Perhaps it isn't a stupid as you think? Perhaps people like the idea of trading computational power for social mobility? If your computer could do your work for you, leaving you to do whatever you want in life, why would you NOT want that? The stupidity is that we are not all doing this, that we are not tearing down the halls of congress for cheaper power collection methods. What is crazy is that we never demand acco…
Re: Bitcoin backlash as ‘miners’ stress power grids in Central Washington
#179Earlier quoted context omitted.
This comment applies to any revolutionary technology. Let's substitute cryptocurrencies with "the internet" in 1999: - people trading 'stocks' in the same way Pokemon / WWF kids trade cards. - thinking this is actually a long-term 'investment' strategy (well its idiots trading with each other ...) - to top it off, siphoning off capital and giving a load of shitty excuses 'it could be like Detroit at the beginning of…
The difference is that the Internet had clear useful applications at that point and billions of dollars in real business (not just speculation) was happening annually. Yes, there were plenty VC misfires with no plausible path to profitability — my favorite was cement.com, with free shipping! — but there were tons of existing businesses finding significant value from it and new companies like Amazon, eBay, Travelocity…
If you're comparing with the Internet, I'd say 10 years is still quite early into the Bitcoin and Blockchain space. You could say the Internet of 1999 was almost 15-20 years of development from the time TCP/IP was introduced on the ARPANET.
With the attention that Blockchain has received in the past year and the sheer number of smart people working in this field (yes there are plenty of scammers as well but you can't deny smart people are flocking to it right now), I'm pretty sure you'll be surprised of what it looks like in just another 3 years or so.
Re: Bitcoin backlash as ‘miners’ stress power grids in Central Washington
#180Earlier quoted context omitted.
Facebook and Snap became part of most people’s lives within a few years. Bitcoin has been around for 10, and aside from trading bitcoin, has found very limited use. That’s what makes it different. Every prediction for what Bitcoin would be good for, and what would justify its price has failed to come to fruition.
I believe Venezuela proves you completely wrong. You should read up on what is going on there with Bitcoin. What Satoshi envisioned is actually happening there. The fact that bitcoin has gone 10 years, with limited use, to me signals just how amazing the technology is. Ten years is nothing for a tech that can last 1000 (or more..).