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US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

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Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#171

Post by jacquesm »

Andre_Wanglin wrote: post #160
jacquesm wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They may not appear to be "winning" to those who measure civilizational success by the quarter but I bet their way wins out in the long run. I'll bet the opposite. The long run is really long and if your population is in decline then you either up the numbers or sooner or later it will be game over for your branch of the tree.

Populations can grow geometrically at any time. What matters to a particular "branch" is that it remains a cohesive and clearly demarcated appendage while it weathers hostile conditions. Grafting on another branch is what ensures its demise as a distinct entity.

Hehe, there is no society on earth right now that never incorporated substantial numbers of outsiders. The relatively placid world that we live in today is in no way the historical norm. Hostile conditions are the norm. Ask the Palestinians, the Iraqi, the Iranians, the Panamanians, the Native Americans and Native Canadians and lots of people living elsewhere in Europe and the world (or anybody else for that matter, but for first or second generation immigrants it is obvious) to see how far back their roots go. In most cases you won't have to go much further than three or four generations (assuming you can trace them back at all) before you land abroad and in many cases in wildly different cultures due to wars, colonialism, trade, famine or natural disasters. Japan is due to its state as an island an exception, not the rule and even Japan is subject to the maxim that you use it or you lose it.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#172

Post by pixl97 »

j_gu wrote: post #87
freyir wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Costs in terms of time and money. In the past, kids could work on the farm or in a factory and generate money, now you have to send them to daycare and buy them toys and they cost money. Previously, more people would jump straight out of high school into blue collar jobs and raising families. Now, men and women are delaying kids to focus on college and building a career. And mothers would more often stay home to rais…

In the past, kids were essentially indentured servants/slaves in other words.

My parents: "Our kids still are indentured servants"

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#173

Post by gowld »

mhneu wrote: post #8

For decades, the US birth rate has been held up by immigration. American values have been to regard the country as a nation of immigrants, who not only act as a source of youthful workers, but also have more kids than Americans who have been here longer. So the US has avoided workforce aging, as has happened in parts of Europe and especially Japan, through immigration. With the recent reduction in immigration, accele…

We don't need a higher birth rate. We don't need more people. We have automation to increase productivity.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#174

Post by gowld »

nostromo wrote: post #35
mhneu wrote: post #8

For decades, the US birth rate has been held up by immigration. American values have been to regard the country as a nation of immigrants, who not only act as a source of youthful workers, but also have more kids than Americans who have been here longer. So the US has avoided workforce aging, as has happened in parts of Europe and especially Japan, through immigration. With the recent reduction in immigration, accele…

I don't see the value in large numbers of unskilled workers entering the US every year. With a potentially large wave of automation coming, the US shouldn't straddled itself with lots of unemployable drivers, farm workers, etc. I hope we can move to a much more sensible immigration system, similar to Canada's, for example.

Having fewer children neatly solves the problem of unemployment

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#175

Post by pixl97 »

Karishma1234 wrote: post #42
vkou wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They also did so in an environment where childcare was free (Because grandma was doing it for you.) Most people don't live with grandma anymore, and the government will happily take your children away if you don't keep every second of their lives supervised by an adult, prior to the age of 13.

There are more grandmas alive than ever in past. What is stopping you from doing it now ? Go live with grandma.

How many grandma's live in retirement homes?

Back then: Have kid when 18-24, Grandma is 36-42.

Now: Have kid when 35, Grandma is 70.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#176

Post by cheeseomlit »

jaredklewis wrote: post #155
cheeseomlit wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Italians, Irish, and most of the other immigrants from that time were Europeans who had a lot in common with Americans culturally.

The Chinese immigrated to the US at a similar time as the Irish and Italians. The more than 3 million Chinese living in the US today seem plenty well integrated and I don’t think China and America are particular close in terms of culture.

That's a fair point, I guess I'd make a distinction between similarity and compatibility

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#177

Post by gowld »

jaredklewis wrote: post #155
cheeseomlit wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Italians, Irish, and most of the other immigrants from that time were Europeans who had a lot in common with Americans culturally.

The Chinese immigrated to the US at a similar time as the Irish and Italians. The more than 3 million Chinese living in the US today seem plenty well integrated and I don’t think China and America are particular close in terms of culture.

And the Chinese immigrants were met with the same fierce racism that meets Hispanics and Arabs and Africans today.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#178

Post by koolba »

sp527 wrote: post #89
confuseddesi wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In general, the richer someone is, the less likely they are to have as many children. See https://www.economist.com/node/21561112 .

I have to wonder if there's a dip around the upper middle/lower upper who, because of price discrimination on college costs and such must still be conservative, that then reverses course for the mid to upper upper, who have wealth in excess of any reasonable pattern of consumption and certainly more than enough to raise many children. I know that my plan is two max at the moment strictly because total cost per head i…

> I know that my plan is two max at the moment strictly because total cost per head is roughly $500k in today's dollars (including total private college costs, which account for half of that).

So double the kids for same price assuming they go to a public university? Sounds like a good deal to me.

FYI, you can cut that down even further if you go to a community college for the first year or two and then transfer.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#179

Post by nradov »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #121
mieseratte wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I hope we can move to a much more sensible immigration system, similar to Canada's, for example. We have a decent immigration system in terms of getting the right kinds of advanced folks. The problem is we are also unwilling to do what needs to be done to stem the tide of unskilled illegal labor that flows into the nation.

The number of illegal immigrants in the US has been dropping for the past decade. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-02-21/the-myth-... The biggest reason for that IMO is because Mexico has been doing relatively well over the past couple of decades. You don't attempt a very risky illegal crossing if you can get a job and support your family where you are. The repeal of NAFTA will restart the immigration wav…

Some parts of NAFTA might eventually be renegotiated but it won't be repealed any time soon. In the USA it was implemented as a federal law (not a treaty or executive agreement) and there is very little Congressional support for a repeal.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#180

Post by hueving »

mhneu wrote: post #8

For decades, the US birth rate has been held up by immigration. American values have been to regard the country as a nation of immigrants, who not only act as a source of youthful workers, but also have more kids than Americans who have been here longer. So the US has avoided workforce aging, as has happened in parts of Europe and especially Japan, through immigration. With the recent reduction in immigration, accele…

>because those two-parent families tend to vote for the other party, and one-earner families have kids that vote for their party

This confuses cause and effect. Two-earner families tend to be two-earner families because you need two incomes in expensive cities (which vote D regardless of familial status). Single-earner families get much on much less in smaller cities and rural areas that tend to be more conservative.

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