Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#171

Post by qaq » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 4:47 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #166

agumonkey wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

bmw x2 is impressively devoid of humans https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TubOzvqOCmI if you look closely in the background at 10:14 you can catch a wild homo sapiens wandering between an army of robocop arm prototypes

Your video makes my point very nicely. From 12:00 onward, though, humans are used for many tasks, including multiple assembly steps and especially final assembly. These are things that Tesla wishes to fully automate and which industry experts think they're crazy for trying. And honestly, looking at that video (especially the wire harness installation at 17:00), it sure looks like an incredibly hard problem to solve a…

What industry experts were saying about Falcon?

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#172

Post by benjaminl » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 4:52 PM UTC

cdibona wrote: post #16

GM/Toyota/NUUMI would produce four times vehicles in the same amount of time in that plant. (about 120 to 130k/quarter, depending on the nuumi production numbers you believe)

You could be comparing apples and grapefruits here.

It has been reported that Tesla makes a lot of thier own parts. So more of the total supply chain for manufacturing the car exists in that plant.

For example Tesla manufacturers thier own motor in the plant were the NUMMI plant would have had thier ICE motors pre-assembled.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#173

Post by qaq » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 5:53 PM UTC

buvanshak wrote: post #170

jacquesm wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How come someone that's been here less than 2 months and who has two 'Ask HN's to his name one of which is flagged feels they get to dicate what should and should not be on the site? The Tesla story is interesting to 'good hackers' because it is a company that does exactly the kind of thing that 'good hackers' love to read about: disrupt a bunch of incumbents. The fact that Elon Musk started out as a nobody that came…

>The Tesla story is interesting to 'good hackers' because it is a company that does exactly the kind of thing that 'good hackers' love to read about That it like saying Physicists will be interested in the bowel movements of Einstein because he is a brilliant physicist.. Tesla may be an interesting company to "hackers" or what ever. But does the article contains anything of that sort? If HN is filled with the quarter…

You do realize how HN works right? If none cared it would not get upvoted.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#174

Post by danso » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 6:00 PM UTC

buvanshak wrote: post #170

jacquesm wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How come someone that's been here less than 2 months and who has two 'Ask HN's to his name one of which is flagged feels they get to dicate what should and should not be on the site? The Tesla story is interesting to 'good hackers' because it is a company that does exactly the kind of thing that 'good hackers' love to read about: disrupt a bunch of incumbents. The fact that Elon Musk started out as a nobody that came…

>The Tesla story is interesting to 'good hackers' because it is a company that does exactly the kind of thing that 'good hackers' love to read about That it like saying Physicists will be interested in the bowel movements of Einstein because he is a brilliant physicist.. Tesla may be an interesting company to "hackers" or what ever. But does the article contains anything of that sort? If HN is filled with the quarter…

To be fair, quarterly reports for companies like Apple, Facebook, Twitter, and Google often make the front page. And HN is just as interested in Tesla as those companies. Furthermore, this is a particularly interesting quarterly report for Tesla, as it comes after Tesla faces serious questions about its production shortfalls, on top of the other bad news (fatal AP crash, huge recall for Model S, Moody's downgrade) it has received this past week.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#175

Post by Balgair » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 6:05 PM UTC

projectramo wrote: post #139

Someone1234 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The cars are really a minimal amount of hardware, with software wrapped around them. It is a car... An electric car at that, where battery tech and costs have pretty much been the cornerstone of Tesla's success. Claiming hardware doesn't matter to a car company is like claiming foundation doesn't matter for a house. Plus there's nothing particularly minimalist about any of Tesla's cars. They take relatively simple…

I don't know enough about all the parts of the car, but generally speaking, many people have argued that an electric car is much simpler than a mechanical car. (Something to do with the complexity of the engine, gear, drive train etc). If I recall, one study indicated that maintenance costs on an ev are a fraction of the current costs for that reason.

I mean, we really haven't had enough EVs (not mixed, like a Prius) on the road for long enough to make that call. It's possible, but 10+ year battery fail rates, water issues, or other unanticipated issues may over-ride simplicity.

For example: On early Priuses, the regenerative braking would be used so much that the 'real' brakes would calcify/glaze over. When an hard stop was needed (emergency, got cut off, etc) then the 'real' brakes would not work as intended. Many of the early Priuses have front-end damage as a result. It took them about 4 years to fix it.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#176

Post by Robotbeat » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 6:10 PM UTC

agumonkey wrote: post #169

Robotbeat wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your video makes my point very nicely. From 12:00 onward, though, humans are used for many tasks, including multiple assembly steps and especially final assembly. These are things that Tesla wishes to fully automate and which industry experts think they're crazy for trying. And honestly, looking at that video (especially the wire harness installation at 17:00), it sure looks like an incredibly hard problem to solve a…

I think it would be hard if approached as a human technique automation, but there might be other ways to connect power and signal lines in a car in more mechanical ways. Depending on how much thought and desire has been spent by experienced factory designers...

You're absolutely right, and there's a lot of innovation that comes not from automating existing human technique but from changing how things are made so that the technique can be easily automated. For example: from through-hole components in PCBs to surface mount components in PCBs. Or even the PCB itself, which replaced wire wrapping (which, granted, can be automated) and soldering components together with free wires.

The design and the technique are critical variables that must be tweaked to make automation feasible.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#177

Post by Fins » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 6:18 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #111

Fins wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla's are the largest, though, since they have largest batteries. Tesla builds EVs, that's the only thing they sort of can do (of course they can't actually build them at profit, but that's a problem for Tesla's shareholders). Others will build EVs when they can be profitably sold, because it isn't their only business.

> Others will build EVs when they can be profitably sold, because it isn't their only business. Tesla's margins are the highest in the industry for their vehicles. Legacy automakers don't want to innovate and cannablize their own business, which is why they cannot succeed. If you want to sell like Tesla does, and get the level of subsidies they do, sell vehicles that people want and will pay for. There's a reason peo…

If their margins are so high, why are they losing money hand over fist?

People want to buy a Tesla for the same reason many want to buy an Apple or Bose product -- great marketing, not any kind of intrinsic value. And besides, "legacy" automakers (you know, those guys who actually were first to make an electric vehicle, hybrid, fuel cell, hydrogen etc., ones who have driver assistance systems that do not try to actively kill their users, etc. etc.)already have cars people want to buy. Unless you're talking about some edge cases (doesn't Norway tax regular cars so much that Tesla is actually a good value?) making EVs for them isn't currently a very profitable strategy. Not that it were profitable for Tesla either, of course.

It would also be interesting to learn what is it that Tesla actually innovated, apart from marketing (and even there, Apple or Bose has been selling flash over substance for years and years before Tesla)? Batteries? No, they are completely off the shelf. Do they have some magical mystery motors? No... Some exotic body construction maybe? Nope, aluminum cars have been around for quite a while, too. Some incredible self-driving software? No, better not even go there.

It will be interesting to see what happens in a couple of years when VWs electric factory comes online.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#178

Post by Fins » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 6:19 PM UTC

dmode wrote: post #145

Fins wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So... your model S has cooled seats? Tesla doesn't offer them now (and apparently they didn't work when they did). My wife's Sonata has them, and they work. Not even talking about stuff that is to be expected in a $70K+ car, Tesla doesn't quite compete with a $30K econobrand when it comes to creature comforts.

Let's see. My Hyundai doesn't offer any kind of Autopilot features or advanced safety features. My Hyundai doesn't get monthly software updates that improves the car every month. My Hyundai doesn't have a world wide supercharger network to take long trips for free. My Hyundai doesn't have advanced voice features that are constantly improving. Doesn't have natively integrated streaming and podcasts app that can be con…

Let me guess... it is a 10 years old Elantra?

Let's see... my wife's Hyundai does have adaptive cruise control that actually works and does not try to kill her, it has line assist that works as well, it does not get some buggy and unexpected changes in behavior that make it work worse than before. It can actually drive from San Jose to Vegas non-stop without sitting for a couple of hours in the exciting world of Kettleman City's Supercharger station. It integrates with whatever podcast/streaming app she has on the phone, got integrated Google search with voice control, has a perfectly working AC system (and what the hell is an AI driven climate control anyway? Does that come with little Elon's waving fans around your head or something?).

Oh, did I mention that it does not try to kill her? And cools our butts when it is hot outside? And that the body panels actually fit? All of that in a cheap brand for $40K less than a Tesla. For the kind of money you paid, I expect massaging seats, rear seat recliners, maybe even safety better than that of an old Kia.

Sorry. Not being very impressed here.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#179

Post by agumonkey » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 7:00 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #176

agumonkey wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it would be hard if approached as a human technique automation, but there might be other ways to connect power and signal lines in a car in more mechanical ways. Depending on how much thought and desire has been spent by experienced factory designers...

You're absolutely right, and there's a lot of innovation that comes not from automating existing human technique but from changing how things are made so that the technique can be easily automated. For example: from through-hole components in PCBs to surface mount components in PCBs. Or even the PCB itself, which replaced wire wrapping (which, granted, can be automated) and soldering components together with free wir…

Yeah, that's exactly the kind of shift I was thinking about. Now that said, I don't think Tesla is ready to do this, which would somehow prove old timers right. If Tesla managed to this bmw level of automation they'd be pushing enough cars to fulfill demands and keep investors. Later they'll make that 20% jump if Musk really wants to make a SpaceX kind of leap.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#180

Post by bigtex » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 7:21 PM UTC

empath75 wrote: post #26

InTheArena wrote: post #12

The "leaks" on email this last week have changed the narrative a lot. The leak last week (probably not planned) of "prove the haters wrong" resulted in a sell off, while the leak over the weekend cushioned the final numbers. That said, TSLA, just like SpaceX plays really close to the edge with equity and risk in pursuit of a vision. What most Tesla shorts fail to recognize is that Tesla has already gotten to the poin…

> What most Tesla shorts fail to recognize is that Tesla has already gotten to the point that if something really really bad where to happen, any number of well capitalized tech firms would scoop them up in a instant (looking at Apple in particular). Maybe -- or they could wait to buy their assets in bankruptcy.

No potential suitor in their right mind would buy a car company whose main factory is in one of the most heavily regulated areas in regard to air pollution.