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The Role of Luck in Life Success

blogs.scientificamerican.com

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Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#171

Post by skookumchuck »

raleec wrote: post #161
skookumchuck wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But I also believe that anyone else with my circumstances would have nearly identical results. Then there was no need for you to make any effort. After all, success just dropped on your head. You say you were "lucky" to be "conditioned to work hard"? I find such statements astonishing. Anyone can work hard, or not. It's a choice. Nobody is "victimized" by laziness. Jeez. How far will people go with excuses? By the…

Imagine for a second, that you managed to convince me that I am truly the master of my destiny, as are we all. Wouldn't I then be lucky that we were both in this forum at this time? We'd be so fortunate that you didn't get into a car accident yesterday that would have prevented my epiphany... that you weren't abducted as an infant and never seen from again.... That your parents were together that fateful moment... or…

> Wouldn't I then be lucky that we were both in this forum at this time?

As I stated earlier, every detail of one's life is luck, but one chooses to position oneself in situations where one is likely to get lucky.

As for our interactions, I'm not saying anything unique that you cannot find in plenty of other places if you choose to look. If you are out looking, it's highly unlikely you won't run across my views.

In my life, I see people choosing to fail all the time, and they always claim to be victims. I also know many who take responsibility for things that happen to them, the good and the bad. It's empowering for them, as when bad things happen they pick themselves up, figure out what they did wrong, and try to choose better next time.

Do you have a plan for success? Are you executing that plan? If you don't have a plan, or don't execute your plan, how do you expect to succeed?

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#172

Post by lisper »

skookumchuck wrote: post #138
lisper wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But if you keep rolling the dice again and again and again, you're eventually going to get a good roll No, this is a pernicious myth. A lot of people roll again and again and never get a good roll. Rolling the economic dice takes a lot of time. You can reasonably expect to get maybe 10 rolls before you age out. Even if the odds of success on each roll were 1 in 10 you'd still have a LOT of people (about a third act…

It's not at all a myth. Donate your video game console to Goodwill, get yourself educated, get out and try, and your odds increase enormously.

> get out and try, and your odds increase enormously.

That is true, of course, but increase relative to what? There is huge variance in the baselines, starting with, for example, whether you live in the U.S. or, say, Bangladesh.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#173

Post by marnett »

skookumchuck wrote: post #139
lisper wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is easier said than done. The right place is usually only evident in retrospect. A lot of people move to Silicon Valley, work their freakin' asses off for decades, and still don't succeed. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that it's hopeless and that you should just give up and play video games. But I believe that dumb luck is a bigger factor than effort. Luck is necessary, and can be sufficient for success. E…

> But I believe that dumb luck is a bigger factor than effort. Make no effort, and your odds of failure are 100%. Your odds get better and better as you make smarter choices, put out the effort, and position yourself for success. > A lot Yeah, some fail. But most succeed in SV, the proof is in the housing prices.

> the proof is in the housing prices.

I feel like this statement gives more backing to the arguments on luck. Those lucky enough to by an apartment in the peninsula in the 80s, who are gaining the most off of soaring housing costs, are now reaping remarkable 'success' with no proof they predicted, with skill, foresight, or intellect, the housing market of 2018.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#174

Post by skookumchuck »

RoddaWallPro wrote: post #167
skookumchuck wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Claiming that working hard is "luck" is an absurd excuse for not bothering to try. The vast majority of people in the US are healthy and the environment in the US is the most conducive in the world to success. Stop making excuses.

I think if you took the time to research obesity, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, etc, in America vs. other countries, you would not be spouting this nonsense. Americans have the ability to get in a bad car wreck and live because we have incredible emergency care. That's it. That is not health.

> nonsense

I'm happy to tell you the good news that the overwhelming majority young adults in American are not suffering from debilitating health problems nor have their lives been saved by incredible emergency care.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#175

Post by skookumchuck »

raleec wrote: post #159
skookumchuck wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did luck force you to reply, as well?

I think that we can agree that we're very lucky to have you here to correct our malformed opinions! :)

Yes, indeed you are! You should be buying me a beer in gratitude! And I should leave this forum and work on my plans!

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#176

Post by oldcynic »

skookumchuck wrote: post #97
oldcynic wrote: post #28

Of course after someone has achieved success they put it down entirely to innate worth, effort, skill and so forth. Likewise plenty who have deserved success have been wiped out by unlucky timing of the dot com bust, credit crunch, fraud. Yes persistence pays, but however unpopular it might be around here, we are nearly all one or two rolls from disaster - be that business failure, major illness, or whatever, that ca…

Luck won't happen to you if you don't get in the game. Getting in the game means getting out there swinging. Getting in the game is a choice you make.

I used to say, and believe, such things.

After over 30 years of work, and business, I have become vastly more tolerant and understanding of those who were diligently "out there swinging" until it broke them, and sometimes their families too. There comes a point where anyone will break.

What of those who were swinging improperly due to their year of birth and graduated during a recession? The effect of taking something when jobs are not available can lock them into poorer quality jobs for decades. Earnings for some never catch up over a whole career, at least according to some studies. Potential employers only take interest in your previous role, and current salary, so this isn't unduly surprising.

Of course you have to be "in the game", but the effects of your swings, regardless of how many, are often outwith your control.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#177

Post by logfromblammo »

Noos wrote: post #152
logfromblammo wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that the point was that everyone can make conscious choices that will lead to millionaire status. Avoidable mistakes can derail that, but cautious living can eliminate the luck factor. Anyone born in the US, regardless of social status or ability, can become educated as an electrician, gain work experience up to master status, then incorporate as a subcontractor business to employ both less-experienced and le…

I'm not sure that they can. There's luck in that you don't hurt your back doing a trade, or get electrocuted, or you don't show up to work one day to find the doors closed because of something the boss did. There's luck in that someone doesn't invent something that makes your field or your customer base obsolete; wal-mart and online shopping seemed to have destroyed malls and mid-tier retailers, with ripple effects t…

I did slip in "judicious use of insurance". Insuring against bad luck precludes making some additional investments that could take advantage of good luck.

But even so, ancestor post was not referring to people who failed to become millionaires due to bad luck, but the level of wealth one can attain without good luck. For those wealthier, someone can always come along, point to a spot in their life story and say, "here is where you got lucky". It might just be at t=0, when they were born to a statistically unlikely set of parents, but there will be something.

Perhaps Mark Cuban's dog liked the smell of your butt. Maybe you were assigned to be Martha Stewart's cellie in the clink. You wore a particularly ugly sweater during a nationally televised political forum. You lost a lot of weight eating sandwiches from one chain, just as that brand needed a new ad campaign, and they forgot to ask around among your former classmates about your non-dietary habits.

For every lucky break, there are plenty more people who toil away their whole lives and never get ahead. The ceiling for those who never catch a break is far, far below those who got lucky at least once.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#178

Post by pitchups »

One of the most important takeaways from this article, is not what the title suggests, but the consequence of it being true for society. It is buried in the middle of the article and if true, is must-reading for everyone who determines public policy or funds startups:

"[I]f the goal is to reward the most talented person (thus increasing their final level of success), it is much more convenient to distribute periodically (even small) equal amounts of capital to all individuals rather than to give a greater capital only to a small percentage of them, selected through their level of success - already reached - at the moment of the distribution."

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#179

Post by aje403 »

lisper wrote: post #168
aje403 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You were an AI researcher in 2000 and decided to take a risk and join a startup, this is a very poor definition of luck. Luck does always belong in the conversation - "All great events hang by a hair, I believe in luck, and the wise man neglects nothing which contributes to his destiny"

The lucky part was that I joined the one startup that turned into the runaway success out of the many hundreds that were available to choose from at the time that failed. This was during the height of the first dotcom boom. Next Big Things were a dime a dozen.

You most likely earned the luck you received.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#180

Post by downandout »

UncleMeat wrote: post #166
downandout wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point was that it takes no better than average luck for people that choose to work hard in high paying fields and make good life/financial choices to become millionaires. It may not be easy to stay on that course, given human nature. But barring very bad luck (major health issues, etc.), these things are entirely within your control. Many people ascribe the consequences from bad or risky choices to bad luck, but t…

Does everybody have an equal opportunity to work in high paying fields? Or avoid major medical issues and expenses?

Re: health issues, that's why I said "barring very bad luck". However, I would say that yes, everyone has an opportunity to work in high paying fields. You have to work toward it, and that starts by getting good grades in school. But yes, any reasonably intelligent person that is sufficiently committed to it can do it.
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