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The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

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Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#171

Post by wpietri »

mrb wrote: post #170
wpietri wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to be working very hard not to understand their point. Or mine. The largest 500 retailers is an excellent representation of major retailers. It's also a reasonable indicator to use for general consumer behavior, because what makes retailers the largest is their use by consumers. You could claim that a loss of 2 retailers isn't significant proof of decline, although since it's 2 of 5, a 40% decline seems nota…

« isn't significant proof of decline, although since it's 2 of 5, a 40% decline seems notable to me » Any percentage value is irrelevant because a change of ±2 among 500 retailers is statistically insignificant. If it was ±20 it would be significant. What if we went from 1 to 2 accepting BTC, would you say "acceptance went up 50% among top 500 retailers?" It would be highly misleading and improper to report it as suc…

Taking the one bit you want to argue with but ignoring the meat of my point certainly isn't something I'm finding useful. I'll take my leave here.

Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#172

Post by omarchowdhury »

QAPereo wrote: post #168
omarchowdhury wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reasoning can't have or be evidence?

They’re two words with different meanings, and I don’t find semantic arguments engaging, sorry.

Even though your whole contribution to this discussion was semantic.

The definition of reasoning is: "the action of thinking about something in a logical, sensible way."

As if evidence could not be a component of reasoning that leads one to logic and sense.

The only reason why you don't want to engage this further is because you knew your quip was fruitless from the start.

Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#173

Post by mrb »

tfha wrote: post #62
mrb wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A block size increase is in fact very urgently needed. 99% of blocks are maxed out at ~4M weight DESPITE segwit, because segwit's adoption is too low (7%). Adoption isn't happening faster not because it's unneeded, but because of inertia among wallet developers. Consequently, full blocks and high fees have caused Bitcoin to lose many users to alts (LTC, ETH, ETC, DASH...) All this user loss and tx market loss has bee…

We could double the block size. Then the capacity would raise from about 10 million users to about 20 million users. I'm sure that would solve all of Bitcoin's scaling issues for a long time.

You missed: «while we all continue to work on off-chain scaling (NimbleWimble, LN...) that we all already agree are the proper long-term solutions.»

Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#174

Post by QAPereo »

omarchowdhury wrote: post #172
QAPereo wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’re two words with different meanings, and I don’t find semantic arguments engaging, sorry.

Even though your whole contribution to this discussion was semantic. The definition of reasoning is: "the action of thinking about something in a logical, sensible way." As if evidence could not be a component of reasoning that leads one to logic and sense. The only reason why you don't want to engage this further is because you knew your quip was fruitless from the start.

Have a nice life.

Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#175

Post by [deleted] »

QAPereo wrote: post #174
omarchowdhury wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even though your whole contribution to this discussion was semantic. The definition of reasoning is: "the action of thinking about something in a logical, sensible way." As if evidence could not be a component of reasoning that leads one to logic and sense. The only reason why you don't want to engage this further is because you knew your quip was fruitless from the start.

Have a nice life.

[deleted]

Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#176

Post by lsseckman »

kccqzy wrote: post #66

Personally I’m of the opinion that Bitcoin is already “too big to fail”: there are so many interested parties and stakeholders who want it to succeed that it will be kept alive through sheer will, despite internal politics.

if you're taking 2009 as a reference point, you have to wonder whether Bitcoin is the CDO market, or the banks investing in those markets.

Both failed, only one was bailed out.

Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#177

Post by brianwawok »

koonsolo wrote: post #127
brianwawok wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok put your entire life savings in BC, i will put mine in the SP500. Lets see how things look in 40 years?

Having your life savings in BC is just as stupid as having no cryptocurrency at all.

Having your life savings in cold fusion juice presses is just as stupid as having no stock in the above at all.

You need to think of the reason for an investment. If you are set for life, and want to gamble on it... cool, buy BC. You could also go to vegas, or bet on horses, or start a HFT trading shop. All are reasonable ways to gamble for fun and possibly profit.

If you are looking to build a nest egg to retire when you are old, it is very unlikely that BTC is a good route for that ;)

Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#178

Post by koonsolo »

brianwawok wrote: post #177
koonsolo wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having your life savings in BC is just as stupid as having no cryptocurrency at all.

Having your life savings in cold fusion juice presses is just as stupid as having no stock in the above at all. You need to think of the reason for an investment. If you are set for life, and want to gamble on it... cool, buy BC. You could also go to vegas, or bet on horses, or start a HFT trading shop. All are reasonable ways to gamble for fun and possibly profit. If you are looking to build a nest egg to retire whe…

Investing in BTC is like investing in startups. And a lot of people are making money with that. And so are a lot of people in BTC.

Please don't compare this to Vegas, where the odds are known to be against you.

Have a small/tiny % of your investment in cryptocurrency is a smart move.

Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#179

Post by brianwawok »

koonsolo wrote: post #178
brianwawok wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having your life savings in cold fusion juice presses is just as stupid as having no stock in the above at all. You need to think of the reason for an investment. If you are set for life, and want to gamble on it... cool, buy BC. You could also go to vegas, or bet on horses, or start a HFT trading shop. All are reasonable ways to gamble for fun and possibly profit. If you are looking to build a nest egg to retire whe…

Investing in BTC is like investing in startups. And a lot of people are making money with that. And so are a lot of people in BTC. Please don't compare this to Vegas, where the odds are known to be against you. Have a small/tiny % of your investment in cryptocurrency is a smart move.

> Investing in BTC is like investing in startups.

So something that only people with significant incomes and the ability to lose 98% of their investments should touch it? I am fine with that definition. Not sure most BTC investors would qualify to invest in a startup though (see qualified investors law)

> Please don't compare this to Vegas, where the odds are known to be against you.

The odds are against you in many markets. I would argue the odds are against you in BTC. It is a zero sum game, and there are many people looking to steal or scam. In a zero sum game with scammers, your EV is negative unless you yourself also want to steal or scam (which is a different conversation to head down.

> Have a small/tiny % of your investment in cryptocurrency is a smart move.

Why? Should you put a tiny % of your investment in horse races? For most people, a small bet with an unknown payoff is not something they should touch.

Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#180

Post by koonsolo »

brianwawok wrote: post #179
koonsolo wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investing in BTC is like investing in startups. And a lot of people are making money with that. And so are a lot of people in BTC. Please don't compare this to Vegas, where the odds are known to be against you. Have a small/tiny % of your investment in cryptocurrency is a smart move.

> Investing in BTC is like investing in startups. So something that only people with significant incomes and the ability to lose 98% of their investments should touch it? I am fine with that definition. Not sure most BTC investors would qualify to invest in a startup though (see qualified investors law) > Please don't compare this to Vegas, where the odds are known to be against you. The odds are against you in many…

> only people with significant incomes and the ability to lose 98% of their investments

If you only invest 1%, you can only lose 1%. And with bitcoin, you can invest at $1 if you want.

> I would argue the odds are against you in BTC.

Seems that in reality they weren't.

> Should you put a tiny % of your investment in horse races?

Still talking about Vegas? In that case you don't seem to understand risk-return. NOBODY should invest in horse races or Vegas, or the lottery. Nobody! Not rich, not poor. Why? Because the risk-return ratio is known to be The risk-return of Bitcoin is not known to be Let me put this in another way, if you place a huge amount of Vegas bets, you average out the risk-return, and you will end up with 1. That's why people are making money with it.

Instead of arguing with me, maybe you should consider that there might be a tiny bit in truth to all of this. And then maybe that wisdom can make you some decent money in the future. But I won't lose any sleep over it if you don't. I have a sane, pretty conservative investment strategy, and it's doing fine.

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