The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation • Hacker News Board

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#171

Post by Eridrus » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 2:12 PM UTC

alkonaut wrote: post #133

ti32x wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a very idealistic view that I don't believe is based in reality. While we still measure a person's worth out of how much they make, this is going to pose an enormous problem for all of us. We can't just take away people's livelihoods for the benefit of a few (us, to be honest). There will be a violent reaction, as there has been every time this situation has arisen throughout history.

> We can't just take away people's livelihoods for the benefit of a few But how is shifting from e.g. production to services taking away peoples livielihood any more than shifting from farms to industry was? > While we still measure a person's worth out of how much they make, this is going to pose an enormous problem for all of us. Aren't most developed countries already either speculating in, or already effectively…

The service industry generally pays less and as a society we respect it less.

And service jobs are not immune to automation either, eg Eatsa.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#172

Post by james-watson » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 2:19 PM UTC

cnnsucks wrote: post #19

twblalock wrote: post #5

It's interesting that many politicians, including Trump and Sanders, want policies to prevent jobs from leaving the US, but have no policy proposals around automation. If you want manufacturing jobs to stay in the US, regulating automation would be far more effective than trying to prevent companies from outsourcing jobs. (Incidentally, a lot of jobs that have been outsourced probably would have been automated if out…

You know what else is interesting? The same part of the political spectrum that cites automation as the real cause of working class decline does not hesitate to rationalize mass immigration as necessary to fill the demand for labor. If automation is the problem then what are all the unskilled immigrants for?

It's funny how obvious the holes are when a little light is shined upon the patchwork that is the elite's master plan.

The establishment parties are pure self serving propagandists, nothing more. They use marketing techniques to convince people that smoking is good for them, because they need to sell cigarettes. Nothing has changed.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#173

Post by gooseus » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 2:35 PM UTC

Surprised I haven't seen CGP Grey's Humans Need Not Apply[1] video posted up in any of these automation discussions.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

Anyone who thinks that automation isn't a big deal want to respond?

I'm also curious how we assume with such confidence that everything will be fine since we survived the Industrial Revolution when there was an order of magnitude less people on the planet in the 19th century?

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#174

Post by inimino » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 2:35 PM UTC

carsongross wrote: post #34

inimino wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Automation saves money, bringing jobs back doesn't, that's why the jobs went away in the first place.

Who, whom.

I can't tell what point you're trying to make, here.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#175

Post by maxerickson » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 2:41 PM UTC

edblarney wrote: post #21

torpfactory wrote: post #12

I think we are destined for a future of political and social instability in the world if we continue to define labor and its compensation as we do now. We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required. The resentment of the winners (capital owners) by the losers (jobless masses) may lead to great upheaval, to be harnessed by willing politicians of short-sighte…

"We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required" Yes we do. The industrial revolution had far greater impact on labour than any of this mysterious AI will ever have. The first 'machines' powered by coal etc. instantly 'unemployed' hundreds of people per unit. Go ahead and look at the productivity/capita charts for the early 19th century - UK citizens were mu…

Try this one: tell me which people you know, in which industries, have outright 'lost their jobs' due to some AI or machine? Not so many.

This is a nice tidy test that is not entirely useful. You can't know anyone that didn't get hired into a job that didn't get created. Say a plant doubles output while destaffing by way of retirement. No one loses a job, automation eats more than 1 plants worth of jobs.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#176

Post by ameister14 » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 2:43 PM UTC

edblarney wrote: post #21

torpfactory wrote: post #12

I think we are destined for a future of political and social instability in the world if we continue to define labor and its compensation as we do now. We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required. The resentment of the winners (capital owners) by the losers (jobless masses) may lead to great upheaval, to be harnessed by willing politicians of short-sighte…

"We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required" Yes we do. The industrial revolution had far greater impact on labour than any of this mysterious AI will ever have. The first 'machines' powered by coal etc. instantly 'unemployed' hundreds of people per unit. Go ahead and look at the productivity/capita charts for the early 19th century - UK citizens were mu…

>But what happened during the industrial revolution? Unemployment went down, wages went up. In fact the cost of human labour rose dramatically.

I'd be really interested to see sources for this since there is almost no accurate unemployment data pre-1840 and at least in the US it doesn't seem likely as what information we have tells us that during the period from 1800-1840 slaves made up over 26% of the workforce in the United States, peaking at almost 32% in 1810.

I'm assuming you're going by wage estimates from the UK over the period, but if you are those are really contested as a method for evaluating quality of life or actually real wages - many people at the time didn't earn inside the wage system.

I don't disagree that eventually cost of labor and general unemployment improved as a result of the industrial revolution - I just don't think it happened DURING the industrial revolution, at least not until its late stages.

Also, GDP per capita is a really bad way to estimate effects on the working class, particularly in a period famous for massive income inequality.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#177

Post by BenoitEssiambre » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 2:44 PM UTC

jganetsk wrote: post #161

This is exactly wrong. Automation happened already, 200 years ago. It upended society. It was called the Industrial Revolution. Things changed dramatically, and nothing remotely of that scale is occurring now. We are suffering today not because of technological progress, but rather the contrary: the rapid technological progress of the 20th century that brought tremendous economic prosperity to humanity has finally co…

I agree that secular stagnation and the global savings glut are the real problems but Keynesian fiscal spending is supposed to be periodic to counter cycles. It cannot fix long term secular trends.

A worldwide monetary policy change that keeps real interest rates sufficiently negative to be in line with private market rates is the only real solution.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#178

Post by GFK_of_xmaspast » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 2:44 PM UTC

ab5tract wrote: post #99

clock_tower wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you familiar with potlatch society in the old Pacific Northwest? With wealth readily available, the "big men" of a tribe (roughly chiefs, but not hereditary) competed to see how much they could give away to their neighbors and rivals; all you had to do to eat well, or make it through a bad winter, was to admit that your neighbors were led by a great and glorious chief. This system didn't work very well at the tim…

Interesting that your example of warlordism in a "potlach-like" culture is from a feudal society. The rest you've said is a gross misrepresentation of the giveaway culture shared amongst many more tribes than just the Northwest ones. And of course, white academia will just refuse and say "our written documentation written by genocidal outsiders is way more accurate than what the cultures themselves say about themselv…

Why stop keeping track at 1900?

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#179

Post by mcv » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 2:47 PM UTC

dagw wrote: post #150

adrianN wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because self-sufficiency provides a much lower standard of living than what you can get with trade and specialization.

True when dealing with a human workforce. Not convinced it's equally true when dealing with an automated workforce. That being said, I don't see why self-sufficient villages is something to strive after even it could be done efficiently.

If efficiency is not an issue, I definitely think self-sufficiency is something worth striving for. Makes you less dependent on outsiders. You're not suddenly in trouble when you get isolated, and because you don't strictly need anything from the outside, outsiders hold no power over your village, making it less likely to be exploited in unfavorable deals. Self-sufficiency would go a long way to addressing structural inequality.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#180

Post by crdoconnor » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 2:48 PM UTC

sqldba wrote: post #170

jganetsk wrote: post #161

This is exactly wrong. Automation happened already, 200 years ago. It upended society. It was called the Industrial Revolution. Things changed dramatically, and nothing remotely of that scale is occurring now. We are suffering today not because of technological progress, but rather the contrary: the rapid technological progress of the 20th century that brought tremendous economic prosperity to humanity has finally co…

Thank you! Finally someone who gets it. IMHO these articles are fake news, journalists love beating the Automation is killing jobs drum. IT certainly is changing and outsourcing is swings and roundabouts. But there's more work than ever.

Automation is "changing the world" provided you're finding excuses for why there are fewer jobs with worse pay that exculpate the 1%.

Suddenly the American oligarchy loses its faith in automation once you discuss potentially inflationary increases to public spending.

If we really are in an automation renaissance public spending could be ramped up massively and the potentially inflationary impact would be offset by all of the cost savings from replacing people with robots.

If.