How the Arab World Came Apart • Hacker News Board

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#171

Post by anonymousab » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 1:36 PM UTC

snomad wrote: post #143

danielbln wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the choice is between war hawk and unpredictable megalomaniac. Sophie's choice of US politics...

Given the utter disdain for both major candidates, perhaps this year we can hope for a 3rd party candidate. Here is a nice visualization of the 4 top candidates and their stances on a wide spectrum of issues http://imgur.com/gallery/n1VdV

In the eyes of a considerable many, voting for anyone else is the same as a vote for Trump.

Maybe it has always been this way.

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#172

Post by ihsw » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 1:38 PM UTC

Aqueous wrote: post #137

ihsw wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Overly binding is subjective and many benefit from the strong social support provided by Islamic communities, and furthermore to feel jealousy towards other cultures is very un-Islamic. That said, I continue to assert that your arguments are red herrings -- attempts to indirectly answer one question with another's answer. Fixing the issues you brought up are unrelated to removing Islam's influence on the people of th…

Dare I say it - might envy / jealousy towards another culture actually help the Arab world get out of this slump? It is precisely because the Arab world is so closed off - in terms of trade, in terms of cultural exchange, to Western cultural and economic ideas that this widespread poverty remains. This closure means that autocrats are able to pit Islam against Western ideals, constantly - we're bad, but we can stay i…

There already is jealousy -- the Arab world consumes Western culture in greater quantities than ever before and they are migrating to the West in greater quantities than ever (as you may have seen in the news...). I would liken it to the fall of the Iron Curtain but a number of times larger in scale and effect, as well as across massive geographic and cultural faultlines.

But, IMHO, what you are describing is universal. Autocrats have been taking advantage of cultural clash since time immemorial, it's just that the Middle East has been largely uneducated and weak while being led by opportunists.

Anyways, I am completely open to admitting that you are correct. Demonstrating the value of Western culture most definitely results in migration away from Islamic fundamentalism.

Also, it's easy to say that people in the Arab world are afforded agency, but what you are advocating requires people in the Arab world to be educated. The former is useless without the latter.

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#173

Post by sevenless » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 1:39 PM UTC

douche wrote: post #151

danielbln wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the choice is between war hawk and unpredictable megalomaniac. Sophie's choice of US politics...

The unpredictable megalomaniac is at heart an isolationist, though. I can't ever recall anyone else in my lifetime expressing the desire to step back from NATO and reduce overseas commitments.

I don't see evidence Trump has anything at heart beyond self-aggrandizement, just that he panders even more shamelessly and offensively than other politicians.

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#174

Post by ZoeZoeBee » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 1:44 PM UTC

bogomipz wrote: post #147

"The Arab World" - What does that even mean? Arab is a language distinction, a language of which there are many dialects. As Arabic is spoken from Western Sahara all the way east to Oman that pretty much disqualifies Arab World from having geographical significance. Arab also does not denote religious faith as there are Arab Jews, Arab Christians(Coptic) and of course Arab Muslims. There was once briefly a concept of…

I'm not sure where you get the idea that Pan-Arabia died with Nasser in 1970.

The main reason the US kept on Saddam was his stated intention of Pan-Arabia

>'We don't look on this piece of land here in Iraq as the ultimate limit of our struggle,'' he told a group of visiting Iraqi ambassadors in 1975. ''It is part of a larger area and broader aims: the area of the Arab homeland and the aims of the Arab struggle.''

After a coup attempt against him five years later, he called Iraq's political struggle a ''revolution which aims to destroy the bases of imperialism, to shine over the whole Arab world to make it a new power on the world scene.''

And only a few months before Mr. Hussein invaded Iran in September 1980, Mr. Hussein unveiled an ambitious pan-Arab charter for the decade, rejecting any superpower military presence in the Middle East, North Africa and the Indian Ocean and charting a course of regional nonalignment. http://www.nytimes.com/1990/08/05/international/05HUSS.html

http://www.csmonitor.com/1991/0802/02011.html >In their view a confrontation with the West - at least a political one - was unavoidable, in light of Saddam's attempt to lead the Arab world. Saddam's pan-Arab ambitions have been clear since the late 1970s, when Iraq led the so-called rejectionist front against Egypt's peace treaty with Israel. Iraq also controlled many Baathist organizations in Arab countries and saw itself as the capital of Arab revolution against "pro-Western reactionary regimes." But the war with Iran forced Iraq to seek money and political support from Arab nations and put a stop to supporting opposition parties in other states. After the war, however, the Iraqi leadership renewed its bid to lead the Arab world.

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#175

Post by cstross » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 1:44 PM UTC

ekianjo wrote: post #104

cstross wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the best thing that could happen to them. ... In the long term. In the short term, it's going to be very, very bad for them indeed, as the sole source of foreign exchange goes away and the ordinary folks find themselves abandoned in a climate-change-drought-crippled land that has become populated well above its agricultural carrying capacity, and the elite jets off to enjoy their stolen wealth in Switzerland.

> In the short term, it's going to be very, very bad for them indeed It's not like they would not see it coming. Petrol is eventually going to become too expensive at some point, and they should invest accordingly. But numerous past examples of countries relying on raw resources have shown they usually don't adapt and plan, so I don't have too much hope in their case either.

Who is this "they" you speak of (who can't see it coming)?

The rulers are doing fine -- they've got armies and secret police and offshore investments so that when things turn to shit they can just jet off into exile like the Shah of Iran.

The ordinary folks don't have the money and they don't have the oil, they stay quiet for now because they don't want to be imprisoned or executed and because the rulers spend a small chunk of their surplus on social security.

In other words, the people with money to invest don't care, and the folks who might care are in no position to take action.

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#176

Post by sevenless » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 1:45 PM UTC

ilostmykeys wrote: post #154

jcbeard wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The invasion of Iraq was stupid. It was likely illegal, based on false pretenses, and well....shouldn't have happened. The invasions initial execution was beautiful (first few days). The US Military performed splendidly. The follow through (driven by political leaders) was idiotic. Stupid decisions like not listening to his generals (Bush), disbanding the Iraqi security forces (Paul Bremer), and the odd focus on turn…

It's sick to call war "beautiful" especially given that in those first few days innocent people were bombed out of existence along with bridges and infrastructure vital to the subsistence of millions of people. I didn't expect a sick comment to be rewarded on HN. But now I see the blatant and racist hypocrisy.

Terrorism all depends on the beholder, doesn't it?

The forced restructuring of Iraq's economy along right-wing neoliberal lines by the occupying force was another war crime. Read "Imperial Life in the Emerald City" by Chandrasekaran.

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#177

Post by gotchange » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 1:46 PM UTC

return0 wrote: post #38

Long piece , but it fails in that it does not give a coherent message. Pieces of stories here and there are not history. First of all , lets stop calling it Arab Spring. If anything it's the arab Autumn of civil wars, where all arabs are united only in their resentment of the west. Secondly, let's talk about people, their souls, aspirations, and culture instead of political history. Given that these states were built…

> "where all arabs are united only in their resentment of the west"

Is that how you view the political movements happening in the Arabic-speaking majority world - Sorry for the pedantry - from 2011 onward that we're consumed by resentment toward the West?

It's gotta be about you, right?

> "The arab world has always been far too divided to able to draw clear borders around their states"

I had no idea that these political movements and the resulting turmoil were about border disputes between states, and not primarily domestic political issues. The more you know ...

> "Until then, tyranny worked."

Could this explain your theory the perceived resentment in the Arabic speaking world towards the West?

At least now, it would be warranted and well earned since you wish on other people harm, maybe you should get paid for this in kind.

The US is likely to be able to dodge the Trump bullet and skirt falling into a populist authoritarian rule coming November but this doesn't preclude this from happening in the future.

Maybe you should get some taste for how tyranny can turn your life upside down and experience it firsthand before you could wish it onto others.

Anyhow, I still don't wish harm on innocent people but if they're full of hate toward others to the point of blinding them to fall into a trap this big and this wide, I wouldn't help them to avert it or save them.

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#178

Post by bogomipz » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 1:47 PM UTC

SixSigma wrote: post #75

nl wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The invasion of Iraq was a stupid idea, and the NYTimes should be ashamed for that. But the real problems occurred in the disastrous power vacuum and complete lack of a plan that occurred after the war was won. That's what tore Iraq and the Middle East apart. I don't think the NYTimes has any responsibility for that.

> I don't think the NYTimes has any responsibility for that. Except for never mentioning the fact or investigating what the consequences of the war they were propagandizing were likely to be.

Agreed on this point. The NY Times is the newspaper of record in the United States. And as such they hold responsibility both for their editorial policy that allowed Judith Miller's stories about WMDs. What's more remarkable is how unapologetic she is about her own involvement. This is worth a listen(the second half)

http://www.wnyc.org/story/bobs-grill-1-judith-miller/

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#179

Post by tmsbrg » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 1:48 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #57

_delirium wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there much evidence for the specific choice of religion as a casual factor? Methods of blending a traditionalist religion with modern life seem much more important than which religion you start with. For example, Judaism imposes an extremely strict set of rules that govern almost every conceivable aspect of daily life. And indeed you find that strictly observant Orthodox Jews are mostly unable to function in a mod…

There is clear evidence that Catholic areas have lower levels of economic growth than Prodestent areas even within same country. So, religion really does impact economic growth. But, I don't think there is hard evidence to brake it down to specific causes within each religious group. PS: While you may disagree with this, there is a lot of research into this topic: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=religion+economi…

Correlation vs causation. Does protestantism improve productivity, or did the cultures where productivity is valued highly more easily convert to protestantism?

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#180

Post by DanielBMarkham » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 1:48 PM UTC

ihsw wrote: post #97

DanielBMarkham wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People see and act through their own personal philosophies and personalities. You can't peel those off and have any kind of reasonable conversation about culture and history. When faced with impending death, pessimists might commit suicide. Optimists might struggle on. People with under-developed personalities might just listen to the first person they run into. But whatever the case, their choices will be broadcast…

I'm not going to deny that many are judged based on their religious and cultural values, and that there are correlations between all Muslims that point to certain trends that some find alarming (eg: irrationality, lack of self-preservation, and strong desire for justice), but I cannot accept that such trends are a reflection of Islam. Culture shock happens and when it happens on a massive scale then there will obviou…

My post had nothing to do with how people are judged. It was all about how each individual reacts to the same stimulus differently depending on what's inside their head -- which includes religion to a great degree.

Yes, there's a huge culture shock happening. Christianity has been quite flexible over the years. People still think that if aliens land that Christians will freak out. These are people who don't know their history. Whatever kind of weirdness comes along, somehow Christians absorb it into whatever they believe. Then they'll insist that this was what they believed all along :) To adherents, this is probably both a bug and a feature.

The jury is still out with Islam. With so many adherents, it's bound to morph into something. The pressure is certainly high. But I have no idea what the characteristics of that thing is or how much traction it will have in the community. Like I do all people, I wish them the best. Belief systems based on tribal forms of society aren't going to go far in a internet-connected world without a lot of change. Just ask the Judaism folks.

Thanks for the reply!