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Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

economist.com

171–180 of 240 posts

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#171
post #24

It’s easy for Merkel to insist that Italy has to strictly follow EU rules since she doesn’t have to win an Italian election. The Euro just seems like a complete failure. Giant economies are limping along with 20% unemployment, unable to recover 8 years after the recession. In contrast the US has managed an OK recovery, now closing in on full employment. The problem is that each EU national leader is accountable only…

I know, let's institute the very policies and programs that have devastated Europe and continue to lead it to limp from one self-imposed beat down to the next by electing an establishment criminal that is above the law and treasonous.

I get why people are attracted by the shiny parts of Europe from "afar" because they don't have any idea of the cruft, disaster, cost, and authoritarianism that underpins everything and lies just below the surface. Europe is really far more the depths of addiction than the good time the socialist, marxist, communist, and even social-democrat types tout even if they lure you with a free try of some social nirvana meth.

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#172
post #91
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you name a banking or finance system that has ever existed that wasn't? Are there non-western banking systems that are better?

I can't because I don't know one. The point is that every transaction, from barter to high frequency trading, is a matter of trust.

Then why did you say 'western'?

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#173
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Devaluation definitely worked for the Italian economy. This plot shows the difference between the Italian GDP per capita and the Eurozone average GDP per capita. The vertical blue line marks the day the exchange rates between European currencies were fixed. http://i.imgur.com/mmD8kP7.jpg

do you think that the euro is the only reason? If you ask people on the street the real reason behind Italy's fall is the rise of China, Italy used to have a lot of small manufacturing businesses, which are now pretty much gone or dying, and leading to the issues you are seeing with the GDP as well as contributing to the bank problems (small businesses can try to stay afloat with bank loans for a while) It also didn'…

>many, many, many shopkeepers repriced 1000 lire = 1€

Maybe relevant, this also happened in Spain. 166 pesetas were 1€, but shopkeepers replaced 100 pesetas for 1€ instead.

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still haven't seen a good reasoning why the Euro is to blame for the economic problems in southern Europe. It certainly is a issue that those countries can't devalue their currency anymore, but devaluing is not a miracle cure.

Blaming the euro masks the real reason that southern economies went south: The reasons are actually outside the EU. The un-competitiveness of the south was subsidized by the EU for decades, and has turned greece , spain and portugal to dependent nations with little innovation. People don't buy the idea that making their labor cheaper will bring prosperity. Instead, they opt to leave their countries in search of bette…

> Instead, they opt to leave their countries in search of better pay, mainly because they can, and are educated enough.

The brain drain is very real. Guess where everyone (particularly scientists, and musicians) is going? To Germany.

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#175
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The larger difference is that the member state is free refuse to implement the law and choose to leave - the directive can not be imposed. You may consider that just playing with words, but it makes the difference between being legal, and being a violation of constitutional law of a large number of member states, and as a result it makes a substantial difference in how the EU can be legally structured.

By that logic no law can ever be imposed, because you're free to try and secede. The EU makes it as difficult as possible to 'secede' as evidenced by their actions post-Brexit. Their minds are 100% focused on how to make it as painful as possible to reduce the chances of anyone else leaving. This is the mentality of a law enforcer, not a peer.

No, the difference is whether or not a member remains sovereign. While the EU may make it difficult to withdraw, e.g. under UK law the UK Parliament is sovereign. Laws can't be imposed on any UK Parliament.

Likewise, any UK Parliament can revoke any law, including the European Communities Act, if Parliament wishes. In which case from a UK legal standpoint, the UK would cease to be a member of the EU regardless of what the EU might think. From a UK point of view, invoking Article 50 is the polite thing, not a legal requirement.

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#176
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there are laws saying banks cannot receive state aid > every rule is meant to be broken if the situation warrants it Why did anyone bother with the rule in the first place then? Wasn't this exactly the kind of situation it was supposed to cover? It's not like an Italian financial crisis was off the radar when this rule got written. > Does that really mean we should let a massive bank (or multiple banks) go bankrupt…

1. What works for (relatively) small Cypriot banks will probably not work for larger system banks. The bail in rules worked well in part because the Cypriot banks held a lot of foreign, Russian deposits. If Deutsche goes bust.. winter is coming. 2. Bankruptcy will lead to local deposit funds having to reimburse €100,000 per person, per bank. Which will ultimately be paid for by the taxpayer. It might actually be chea…

  It might actually be cheaper for the taxpayer to just
  save the bank.
So, there are a few theories about why the financial crash happened:

Theory 1: The [banking system / market / bankers paid seven-figure salaries] actually had little to no understanding of what they were doing. Complicated derivative products and credit default swaps were mispriced because nobody really understands the maths and their risk models are all wrong.

This suggests, if we want to prevent the problem from recurring, the legislative intervention should be to either ban complex financial products or require much higher capital reserves for banks gambling on them.

Theory 2: The [banking system / market / bankers paid seven-figure salaries] had accurate models and understood the risks. They just decided they could go to the roulette table and put a trillion dollars on red, and the government would bail them out if the ball landed on black.

This suggests, if we want to prevent the problem from recurring, the legislative intervention should be to make bailouts radically less attractive for the people who benefit from such gambling. This could mean not providing bailouts, so banks that gamble and lose go bankrupt; or could involve some of the many other disincentives legislators have at their disposal.

If you follow this theory, and you adopt the policy that there will be no bailouts, you have to let the bank fail to prove to people that you really mean it.

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#178

if italy gets into trouble the EU will just force its members to give up more sovereignity so it can deal with the issue. they will go along because only the EU would be strong enough. which is very bad for the populist nationalist exiteers who have been causing so much trouble lately.

well therein lies the problem. they knew they could never sell that to the public so they created a union which explicitly allowed member nations a great deal of autonomy. Part of the BRexit and possible exits of the French and Dutch is because the politicians in Brussels are trying to end run that agreement and impose it.

America had one super super advantage, it started out by rebelling against one nation and winning. Then the second advantage Europe never had made it easier to stick together, it has a common language. It also does not have hundreds of years of brutal wars between member states that Europe has experienced and experienced within just a few generations.

So unless they really can convince countries to cede the majority of their sovereignty and go to the routes of states in the US there will always be strife and situations like this.

I will say, the current restrictions and such they do have run contrary to allowing for any individual nation getting out of trouble without a lot help

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#179
post #149
post #24

It’s easy for Merkel to insist that Italy has to strictly follow EU rules since she doesn’t have to win an Italian election. The Euro just seems like a complete failure. Giant economies are limping along with 20% unemployment, unable to recover 8 years after the recession. In contrast the US has managed an OK recovery, now closing in on full employment. The problem is that each EU national leader is accountable only…

The US is closing in on "Full Employment", if by Full Employment, you mean: January 2008 Labor Participation Rate: 66.2% July 2016 Labor Participation Rate: 62.7% 62.7% participation means 94 Million Americans are not working. (Source: http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/labor-force-... ) Full Employment only calculates people who are actively looking for work; anyone else is not part of that calculation.…

The DoL counts Discouraged Workers, which is a better way of assessing what you're talking about than teasing it out of the participation rate. It also counts those who are part-time involuntarily, which I feel is pretty important.

There are 6 unemployment rates with different categories included and excluded.

(On mobile, or I would link a BLS report).

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#180
post #104
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The larger difference is that the member state is free refuse to implement the law and choose to leave - the directive can not be imposed. You may consider that just playing with words, but it makes the difference between being legal, and being a violation of constitutional law of a large number of member states, and as a result it makes a substantial difference in how the EU can be legally structured.

Are you saying the EU is basically a clever hack to get around constitutional restrictions?

No, I'm saying that the current governing structure of the EU is a hack to get around constitutional restrictions.

Everything the EU does can be done without these hacks (one alternative would be to negotiate acceptance of the directive as individual treaties), but the governing structure streamlines what would otherwise cause a whole lot more bureaucratic hassle by having created a legislative process which isn't really a legislative process, except that the member states have committed to taking the output (the Directives) and implementing them into law. This ensures that no legal delegation of sovereignty needs to be done, because national parliaments can choose to say no. There would be consequences, but they have the right to.

It also, despite the many flaws in how it is done, delegates some of this decision-making authority to the EU Parliament, something which is only possible because they're involved in deciding on Directives, not laws, because there is no legal basis for them to legislate. Even so, this involvement is limited because there is also no legal basis for Parliament to exercise the executive powers of the member states that is used by to actually bind the member states under the relevant treaties.

I don't think anyone (other than lawyers making money advising on it, perhaps) actually likes the current system. But it sort-of works, and the poblem with trying to reform it is that people dislike it for diametrically opposing reasons: Some wants a federation, some wants powers pulled back. So it's one of those compromise that makes everyone equally miserable.

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