I wonder the role of the US in this.
UK votes to leave EU
171–180 of 1001 posts
Re: UK votes to leave EU
#172A bit of a naive question as I am fascinated by what is happening. I admit I don't completely understand so my question is if the UK is made up of England, Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland why aren't they represented at the European cup currently being held/played in France as the United Kingdom? Why are they playing as separate countries yet voting together to leave the EU? I don't get it.
They get their own football teams because the requirement to be a sovereign nation didn't exist when their teams formed and they are grandfathered in.
Re: UK votes to leave EU
#173It's amazing that such deep constitutional change will be achieved with such a slim majority. 48% of British people will be ejected out of the EU essentially against their will. The UK has always embraced first past the post voting, but it really shows here how it creates very discontinuous inflection points.
I've heard yesterday that the referendum itself is non-binding, and that Parliament is still in charge of the final decision. Further Parliamentary lawmakers are supposedly mostly pro-Remain, so given the slim margin of victory it's not clear what will ultimately happen.
While it's not legally binding it would be political suicide for the government to go against the referendum. There's zero chance of them doing that.
Re: UK votes to leave EU
#174Is Scotland going to be exiting the UK next? Guess we'll see in a few years. Hard to know what will happen here, but I suspect once the UK (or what's left of it) signs a trade deal with the EU, they'll get the same deal as Norway - all the compliance with EU regulations, with none of the say. I suppose people may be happy with that deal, as long as they can get to say they're "free". I'm hoping this somehow leave the…
Short term it is going to be bad for the UK. It will have to renegociate trade agreements, this will create lots of uncertainty which isn't good for the economy, and also lots of market volatility. Long term the EU is going nowhere, it is dominated by socialist countries that will go the way of Argentina, a slow but steady decline (well under way). And the migrant crisis, which is likely only at its beginning (look a…
What socialist countries, pray tell? The German chancellor is from the right. Spanish PM, same. France has an extremely unpopular socialist president who will be voted out very soon. The Italian government is nominally centre-left but has moved to the right in recent years.
Socialism in Europe died in the '90s. What we have now are right-wing neoliberal elites trashing the place that social-democrats built in the '70s and '80s.
Re: UK votes to leave EU
#175I had been following the likelihood of a Brexit on Bloomberg. Before polls opened today, they said there was a 25% chance of the UK leaving. Seems they were quite, quite wrong. http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/
25% chance of leaving is not the same as "they are definitely going to stay". I don't see how you can call a percentage based prediction "quite wrong" if it doesn't end up happening.
Agreed. They'd be wrong if they made a bunch of 25% predictions and the 25% predictions happened more than 1/4 times.
Re: UK votes to leave EU
#176It's amazing that such deep constitutional change will be achieved with such a slim majority. 48% of British people will be ejected out of the EU essentially against their will. The UK has always embraced first past the post voting, but it really shows here how it creates very discontinuous inflection points.
I've heard yesterday that the referendum itself is non-binding, and that Parliament is still in charge of the final decision. Further Parliamentary lawmakers are supposedly mostly pro-Remain, so given the slim margin of victory it's not clear what will ultimately happen.
Backing up my response with a snippet from the BBC's referendum FAQ :
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887
Could MPs block an EU exit if Britain votes for it?
Michael, from East Sussex asks an intriguing question - could the necessary legislation pass the Commons if all SNP and Lib Dems, nearly all Labour and many Conservative MPs were in favour of staying?
The answer is that technically MPs could block an EU exit - but it would be seen as political suicide to go against the will of the people as expressed in a referendum. The referendum result is not legally binding - Parliament still has to pass the laws that will get Britain out of the 28 nation bloc, starting with the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act.
The withdrawal agreement would also have to be ratified by Parliament - the House of Lords and/or the Commons could vote against ratification, according to a House of Commons library report.
It adds: "If the Commons resolves against ratification, the treaty can still be ratified if the Government lays a statement explaining why the treaty should nonetheless be ratified and the House of Commons does not resolve against ratification a second time within 21 days (this process can be repeated ad infinitum)."
In practice, Conservative MPs who voted to remain in the EU would be whipped to vote with the government. Any who defied the whip would have to face the wrath of voters at the next general election.
One scenario that could see the referendum result overturned, is if MPs forced a general election and a party campaigned on a promise to keep Britain in the EU, got elected and then claimed that the election mandate topped the referendum one. Two thirds of MPs would have to vote for a general election to be held before the next scheduled one in 2020.
Re: UK votes to leave EU
#177Is Scotland going to be exiting the UK next? Guess we'll see in a few years. Hard to know what will happen here, but I suspect once the UK (or what's left of it) signs a trade deal with the EU, they'll get the same deal as Norway - all the compliance with EU regulations, with none of the say. I suppose people may be happy with that deal, as long as they can get to say they're "free". I'm hoping this somehow leave the…
I think that the EU will see the UK leave as a slap. So it will definitely slap back, especially Germany. I think with this result UK gave the ok to Germany to actually push UK's economy into a devaluation and then e.g Berlin can become the new London of Europe. I don't think the UK is going to get the same deal as Norway or Switzerland especially since the UK doesn't want to get involved in the free movement.
I know of at least one major investment bank that internally has told staff they will move their head office out of London.
Re: UK votes to leave EU
#178so uh, slightly random question, if i import things from great britain to the EU, do I have to pay import taxes now, or is there a "grace period"?
There is a grace period, especially since the UK hasn't even started the formal process of leaving, yet. Parliament will also need to decide on this.
There is only one scenario without a grace period: some more radical Brexit supporters advocate breaking EU laws and regulations immediately (right to work and live and so on), just because the European courts take their time and by the time they'd hear the case the UK would already have left, so no consequences.
In that case some European politicians have replied there will be an immediate cutoff from the Common Market.
Both threats are highly unlikely to be played out, IMO.
Re: UK votes to leave EU
#179This correlates with XE.com currency converter website being down at the moment. Probably due to the pound value fluctuating...
Re: UK votes to leave EU
#180so uh, slightly random question, if i import things from great britain to the EU, do I have to pay import taxes now, or is there a "grace period"?
It will officially take two years to leave once the process has started, which it has not been yet (that's what the Prime Minister declares). Whether or not you subsequently have to pay import taxes after Britain has left is also something that will have to be negotiated.